John Hooper is one of HERO Sports' FCS Campus Correspondents, and he resides in the Greenville-Spartanburg area of South Carolina. He's a longtime Southern Conference "expert" and tracks the league for HERO Sports.
You can follow John on Twitter @SoConJohn. Read John's weekly SoCon Picks every week.
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SOCON WEEK FOUR PICKS
Week Three: In my first edition of my SoCon weekly picks for HERO Sports, I didn’t do so hot. I went 3-4 last week, missing on The Citadel vs Georgia Tech, Wofford vs. Samford, Mercer vs. Austin Peay and VMI vs. ETSU. For VMI, Austin Peay, Samford and The Citadel, please except my apologies and I promise to do a little more research and do better on my games this week, especially on the games involving these four teams. That being said, congrats to VMI for breaking some rather lengthy losing streaks, and doing so on the road. And congrats to The Citadel for going out and getting the SoCon a power five win over Georgia Tech–the Bulldogs first-ever win over an ACC foe and ninth overall against an FBS program. Now here are this week’s previews.
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COACHES REUNION: Furman's Hendrix and Mercer's Lamb
Mercer (2-1, 1-0 SoCon) at Furman (1-2, 0-0 SoCon), 1 p.m.
Early on, it looks like Mercer and Furman are two of the teams to beat in the Southern Conference race. Furman is coming off back-to-back losses to FBS opponents, dropping road contests at Georgia State and Virginia Tech by a touchdown. Furman is 33-8 in SoCon home openers since 1978. Mercer opened its home slate last Saturday before a sellout crowd of better than 11,000 at Five Star Stadium against a good Austin Peay team that should finish in the upper half of the OVC this fall. Still, the 48-34 loss Austin Peay was a tough pill to swallow for head coach Bobby Lamb and the Bears, who hoped to make the trip to his alma mater Saturday unbeaten with an outside shot of being ranked in the FCS Top 25.
The matchup between the Paladins and Bears will offer up the two best offenses in the SoCon and two of the better offenses in all of FCS football. Mercer leads the SoCon in total offense, averaging 432.0 yard of total offense per game, while Furman is just behind at 426.0 YPG. The Bears 42.7 PPG lead the SoCon, while Furman’s 35.0 PPG ranks third in the league. Robert Riddle leads the talented Mercer multiple spread/pistol offense under center. The redshirt sophomore is tied for the lead the nation in all of FCS football for touchdown passes (11), but has also thrown three pick sixes this season, including two crucial ones in last Saturday’s home opening loss to the Governors. Furman counters with explosive dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger and running back Devin Wynn. Wynn is tied for the lead in the SoCon in rushing yards (280) so far this season, while Grainger ranks fourth in the league in total offense (613 yds/517 pass yds/97 rush yds). Defensively, both teams are physical and have solid front sevens.
The Bears have an All-America candidate at linebacker, in Will Coneway, who has 27 tackles, 2.5 tackles-for-loss and 0.5 sack through the first three games of the season. The Paladins counter with some excellent linebackers of their own, including reigning Southern Conference Defensive Player of the Week Braden Gilby, who made his first start Saturday and finished the contest with 12 tackles, a tackle-for-loss and forced a fumble. All-America outside linebacker Adrian Hope had a big game against the Bears last season, and like Gilby, made his first start for Furman last Saturday. He has nine tackles, 2.5 tackles-for-loss and 1.5 sacks through the first three games of the season. With the past two meetings having been close wins in favor of the Paladins, expect the same Saturday. Also, expect Clay Hendrix’s Paladins to squeak out another close win over his close win in Greenville.
Final Score Prediction: Furman 31, Mercer 28 [divider]
Robert Morris (0-3, 0-0) at VMI (2-1, 1-0 SoCon), 1:30 p.m. EST
There were so many firsts established by VMI in last week’s Southern Conference win over East Tennessee State, including snapping a 28-game losing streak against Division I foes, a 22-game skid to SoCon competition, and captured its first league road win since Oct. of 2002!
Now facing an 0-3 team out of the Northeast Conference, in Robert Morris Saturday afternoon at Foster Stadium in Lexington, head coach Scott Wachenheim’s team has a chance to get off to a 3-1 start to a season for the first time since 1991. The Keydets feature one of the most prolific passing attacks, led by quarterback Reece Udinski, who has already attempted 128 passes this season, without throwing an interception. All told, Udinski has completed 75-of-128 passes for 728 yards so far this season, helping lead the Keydets to a 31-24 road win over ETSU last time out.
Robert Morris counters with running back Alijah Jackson, who has rushed for 236 yards and a pair of scores through the first two games, while George Martin has put up some decent numbers under center, having completed 39-of-67 passes for 444 yards,with two touchdowns and an INT so far this season. Robert Morris has struggled on the offensive side of the football, averaging a little over 300 yards per game, while VMI’s difficulties continue to be on the defensive side of the football, ranking 97th in FCS through three games and giving up 470.3 YPG. Having said that, I like VMI to get the win and the suddenly red-hot Keydets will be 3-1 following Saturday’s game in Lexington.
Final Score Prediction: VMI 35, Robert Morris 28 [divider]
Charleston Southern (0-3, 0-0 Big South) at The Citadel (1-2, 0-0 SoCon), 6 p.m. EST
This game used to be dubbed as the “Throwdown in Chuckdown” and it was The Citadel that snapped a four-game losing streak to Charleston Southern last season, when the Bulldogs closed the campaign with a 43-14 win over the Bucs in a game that had to be added at the end of the season as a result of an earlier canceled game due to Hurricane Florence. The Bulldogs got off to a rocky start this season, and have played one of the toughest slates in all of FCS football. The Bulldogs lost by a touchdown to a pair of ranked FCS teams out of the CAA, in Towson and Elon before getting a shocking 27-24 win over ACC member Georgia Tech this past weekend in Atlanta.
It was The Citadel’s first-ever win over a team out of the ACC, and second since 2015, having defeated South Carolina 23-22 in Columbia during that magical final season under Mike Houston before he moved on to James Madison. Those FBS wins were commonplace for the Bulldogs in the early 1990s, knocking off the likes of Army, Arkansas and South Carolina during that memorable decade. Bulldog quarterback Brandon Rainey will be a gametime decision after suffering an injury in the historic win at Bobby Dodd Stadium this past Saturday. Rainey has been to do-everything signal-caller for the Bulldogs this season, having completed 8-of-16 for 123 yards, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Rainey is also tied for the SoCon lead in rushing yards this season, having rushed for 280 yards and five scores so far this season.
Charleston Southern will be taking on its second Southern Conference opponent of the season, having dropped a 46-13 contest to No. 17 Furman to open the season and the Autry Denson era. The Bucs have since lost games to SEC foe South Carolina (72-10) and another nationally-ranked FCS program, in hard-fought setback to No. 16 North Carolina A&T (27-21). The Bucs have switched from a triple-option offense the air raid offense under Denson, and quarterback Jack Chambers and Ross Malmgren helped the Bucs rack up 233 of their 281 yards through the air this past Saturday. Possessions will be at a premium against the Bulldogs, and I expect the Bucs to take their third-straight loss to an FCS ranked foe Saturday at Johnson-Hagood Stadium.
Final Score Prediction: The Citadel 34, Charleston Southern 14 [divider]
Austin Peay (2-1, 0-0 OVC) at East Tennessee State (1-2, 0-1 SoCon), 7:30 p.m. EST
East Tennessee State looks to rebound from a somewhat shocking SoCon-opening loss to VMI last Sunday morning, as the game featured a two-and-a-half weather delay in two different stoppages of play. The Keydets ended up taking a 31-24 win in overtime in Johnson City a little after 1 am last week. Suddenly the game against Austin Peay, which many fans and media probably penciled in as a win prior to the season, suddenly takes on a new importance after a precarious 1-2 start, with the lone win coming against Shorter.
Austin Peay could be one of the surprise teams in the Ohio Valley and FCS football this season under first-year head coach Mark Hudspeth, and the Governors raised more than a few eyebrows following a 48-34 win at Mercer this past Saturday. In fact, if I had a vote in the FCS Top 25, I would have the Governors in my Top 25 this week. The win road win over Mercer came in opportunistic fashion, as the Governors got a pair of INT returns for touchdowns against the Bears, courtesy of Kordel Jackson, who was the STATS FCS National Player of the Week for his performance against the Bears.
Making the win even more impressive over the Bears was the fact that the Govs did it without starting signal-caller Jeremiah Oatsvall, who suffered an apparent ankle injury in the loss to No. 14 Central Arkansas. The Governors didn’t miss a beat under their new field general last week, in senior JaVaughn Craig, who completed 18-of-32 passes for 252 yards and one touchdown, while also adding 42 yards rushing yards on nine attempts. The Governors out-gained the Bears 420-330 in last week’s win. The Govs stout defense limited the Bears to just 43 yards on the ground. ETSU is still working out their own issues at quarterback, having decided to go with Trey Mitchell under center, and Mitchell continues to improve with each game.
Mitchell replaced starter and Coastal Carolina transfer Chase Thrasher after he went down with an injury in the season opener against Appalachian State. Mitchell has connected on 43-of-72 passes for 540 yards, with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense has been solid once again overall, limiting foes to 338.7 PPG, and have been led by defensive back Jeremy Lewis through the early portion of the season, pacing the Bucs with 20 tackles. This is the first meeting between the two programs, and for the second-straight week, look for the Govs to claim a second-straight win over a Southern Conference foe.
Final Score Prediction: Austin Peay 28, ETSU 24 [divider]
No. 2 James Madison (2-1, 0-0 CAA) at Chattanooga (1-2, 0-0 SoCon), 4 p.m. EST
When Chattanooga takes the field it at Finley Stadium Saturday night, it will welcome the highest-ranked non-conference foe inside the friendly confines, in No. 2 James Madison. The Mocs and Dukes will be meeting for the first time series history, however, the Dukes faced the other team from the Volunteer State back in 2016, downing East Tennessee State, 52-10, in Harrisonburg. The Mocs were on the road last week at Tennessee, dropping a 45-0 decision to the Volunteers and James Madison has rebounded to win two-straight following a heartbreaking season-opening, 20-13, loss to West Virginia.
Saturday’s matchup will also represent one between two first-year head coaches, with Rusty Wright in his first season at Chattanooga, while Curt Cignetti is in his first season as the head coach of the Dukes after coming over from Elon. Cignetti has some familiarity of his own with the SoCon, having faced Furman and Wofford a total of four times in a two-year span, going 2-2 against both Furman and Wofford during that span. James Madison is averaging 40 PPG and holding opponents to 13 PPG, while out-gaining opponents 456-269 through the first three weeks of the season. Quarterback Ben DiNucci leads the Dukes offense, having passed for 617 yards, with six scoring strikes and only one INT.
On defense, keep an eye on defensive lineman Adeeb Atariwa, who is off to a fast start through the first three games this season, having posted 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles-for-loss, a pass breakup and a sack. Chattanooga counters with an offense that is off to a rough start coming off a season, when the Mocs were sporadic at best on the offensive side of the ball, struggling to generate points or a ground game, despite having one of the top quarterback-receiver combos in all of FCS football. Last week, the Mocs were blanked at Tennessee. Through the first three weeks of the season, senior quarterback Nick Tiano has connected on 35-of-71 passes for 443 yards, with four INTs and only one scoring toss.
The Mocs are averaging just 14.7 PPG and just 293.3 YPG. That’s not good enough at this level, and facing arguably its toughest foe of the season and seventh-best unit in total defense Saturday, things aren’t getting any easier for the Mocs. Dukes win big.
Final Score Prediction: James Madison 45, Chattanooga 17[divider]
Gardner-Webb (1-2, 0-0 Big South) at Wofford (0-2, 0-1 SoCon), 6 p.m. EST
Off to its first 0-2 start since 2000, Wofford will look to right its wrongs against a Big South foe Saturday night when it hosts Gardner-Webb on Hall-of-Fame night at Gibbs Stadium. Wofford will honor former great running back Eric Breitenstein in the latest Hall of Fame class for Terrier athletics, as Wofford looks to avoid the embarrassment of its first 0-3 start since 1992, or rather, since becoming an NCAA Division I FCS football-playing member.
The Terriers’ latest loss came to Samford this past Saturday night at Gibbs Stadium, as Wofford lost a fifth-straight game to Samford, 21-14, in Wofford’s SoCon opener. Saturday night’s meeting between Wofford and Gardner-Webb will mark the eighth all-time clash between the two programs, with Wofford holding the 5-2 edge. Wofford posted a 45-14 win over the Bulldogs last season in Boiling Springs, NC, and have won three-straight against the Bulldogs. That came on the heels of back-to-back losses to the Bulldogs in 2013 and ‘14. Wofford showed some glimmers of getting things fixed offensively in last Saturday’s setback to Samford, rushing for 272 yards, led by quarterback Joe Newman’s 96 yards on the ground.
However, it was once again the lack of really any big play threats in the passing game which ended up being costly. Wofford is averaging just 13.5 PPG and just 292.0 YPG offensively through their first two games of the 2019 season. Defensively, the Terriers have looked pretty solid, limiting foes to just 24.5 PPG and 329.5 YPG through the first two outings, led by cornerback Dimitri Redwood’s nine tackles. Gardner-Webb is coming off its first win of the season, which was a 21-12 win over North Carolina Central. Head coach Carroll McCray’s club has some offensive pieces, including redshirt sophomore quarterback Jordan Smith, who has completed 22-of-54 passes for 280 yards, but has thrown four picks and no scoring passes to this point in 2019.
Jaylin Cagle is a solid ground threat for the Bulldogs, having rushed for 265 yards and four scores through the first three games, and that includes having faced two FBS foes. I think the Bulldogs keep it close and could make things very interesting before the HOF night concludes in Spartanburg.
Final Score Prediction: Wofford 17, Gardner-Webb 16 [divider]
Alabama A&M (2-1, 0-1 SWAC) at Samford (1-2, 1-0 SoCon), 7 p.m. EST
The final FCS foe on Samford’s non-conference slate is Alabama A&M, which will be the home home opener Saturday night at Seibert Stadium in Birmingham. The Southwest Athletic Conference foe could prove to be a tricky opponent, as the other Bulldogs in the state are also coming off a 6–5 campaign and have high expectations in 2019, and are out to a 2-1 start, with wins over Morehouse (35-30) and FCS newcomer North Alabama (31-24), while the lone loss of the season has come against the University of Arkansas Pine-Bluff (52-34).
The Bulldogs have looked good offensively the past couple of outings with South Florida transfer Chris Oladokun having assumed the starting responsibilities after Liam Welch started the season-opening loss against Youngstown State. Oladokun garnered his second SoCon Offensive Player of the Week honor last week, leading the Bulldogs to a SoCon opening win over Wofford, as he completed 17-of-25 for 224 yards with a TD and two INTs, while rushing for 88 yards and a score. Through three games, Oladokun leads the SoCon in passing (777 yds) and total offense (910 yds). Alabama A&M is led running back Jordan Bentley and dual-threat quarterback Aqueel Glass. Bentley has rushed for 292 yards and five scores, averaging 4.9 YPC through the first three games of the season, while Glass has connected on an impressive 76-of-121 passes for 935 yards with eight TDs and three picks.
Both defenses allow points, with Alabama A&M ranking 80th in FCS in scoring defense, allowing 35.3 PPG, while Samford ranks 93rd in the FCS in scoring defense, surrendering 39.5 PPG. Expect a high-scoring game, but a blowout win for the Bulldogs.
Final Score Prediction: Samford 63, Alabama A&M 35
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