Earlier this season, North Dakota State redshirt freshman quarterback Trey Lance was put on a Heisman Award watch list by ESPN thanks to a writer voting for him. While that was a bit of a stretch, the potential for Lance to be in serious consideration for the FCS version of the Heisman is getting more and more real.
HERO Sports did some fan voting articles this week (voting ends at 3 p.m. CT today aka Friday) on the major national awards given to players. We also discussed our own front-runners for the awards on B-Mac and Herd's FCS Podcast.
FAN VOTES: Walter Payton | Buck Buchanan | Jerry Rice
If Lance's play continues, he's no doubt winning the Jerry Rice Award for top freshman in the FCS. But he also should be considered for the Walter Payton Award, give to the best offensive player in the FCS.
Will he actually win it?
Trends say no.
Lance simply won't have the "numbers" to get enough votes. Now, sometimes ridiculous passing stats mean a quarterback is playing in the right system against bad defenses. There's also guys like Devlin Hodges, last year's winner, who proved how good he was against P5 opponents throughout his career and is proving it now as an NFL starter. He had the numbers and talent in 2018. Other guys in the past can't say that.
There's also the fact that voters are more likely to vote for an upperclassman. No freshman has ever won the award and the only sophomore to win it was Georgia Southern running back Adrian Peterson in 1999.
However, Lance is having as good of a year as anybody. His 200.20 passing efficiency is the best in the FCS. He is completing 74 of 105 passes for 1,032 yards, 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions while adding 408 yards and six TDs on the ground.
Are those numbers going to catch the eyes of the voters, though? There are nine quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 2,000 yards already. But they've also attempted twice as many passes as Lance and for some, tripled the number of attempts. Not to mention the Bison have been so dominant to start this season that Lance sometimes only throws the ball five times in the second half compared to other guys attempting 25 passes.
There isn't a set criteria for voting. And really, it's just a matter of opinion. If Guy A throws for 2,000 more yards than Guy B, some voters think Guy A is more deserving of their vote. Other voters may have watched both Guy A and Guy B in action quite a bit and feel Guy B is the better player.
But there's no denying this … Lance is replacing the all-time wins leader in FCS history, a 2018 Top 3 Walter Payton Award finalist and a fifth-round NFL Draft pick in Easton Stick. There has been no dropoff in play.
Will that lead to Lance being in serious consideration for the Walter Payton Award?
Brian and Sam discussed Trey Lance and the Walter Payton Award further on this week's podcast (starts at 36:40).
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