Welcome to the HERO Sports FCS Mailbag. In partnership with FCS Football Fans Nation, we will ask for questions with a post on their Facebook page every Sunday and our FCS crew of Brian McLaughlin, Chase Kiddy and Sam Herder will give in-depth answers with these Thursday articles. They will also choose the best question and discuss it on the FCS Podcast that comes out Wednesday mornings.
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Playoffs: Week 4 Predictions
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Alex Bonser – Thoughts on Idaho? Are they legitimately bad at the FCS level or will they be all right once they get some Big Sky games at home?
Brian: Give Idaho a second. I'm sure they'll be in the discussion soon enough.
Chase: I'm reserving final judgment for a couple more weeks, but I suspect the Vandals might not be very good. Good teams generally don't give up 70 points, even in FBS games, so I think the defense probably needs some work. The game to watch for might be at Idaho State on Oct. 6. If they win that game, they've at least got some bullets to fire. If they lose, it's possible they don't win a game for the remainder of the season.
Sam: I want to see these next two games for Idaho before I decide how good, bad or in-between this team is. Mainly because (and we have a similar question below) we still don't know how good UC Davis is. Are the Aggies so good that they beat a team full of FBS players 44-21? Or are the Aggies a decent team, making Idaho a not very good team. Know what I mean? Idaho plays Portland State this weekend and Idaho State next. Those are OK Big Sky opponents. So I'll wait until these games are played. But I will say their Big Sky debut against UC Davis was underwhelming.
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Matthew Fraase – Illinois State or SDSU. Who’s the 2nd team to fear more in the Valley.
Brian: Whew … damn Matt, coming with the 90 MPH heater early eh? Yeah, that's going to be one of the biggies we keep an eye on in October. I think when they play it'll be a barn-burner and I'm not going to be a pompous jerk and say I know the answer to this. I will tell you this, I wouldn't place a bet on that game.
Chase: This is a tough question because I don't really trust either team's resume as a representative sample size so far. South Dakota State has an offense that looks quite powerful, but I can't help but feel like we might be overvaluing the Montana State game. Illinois State has two wins that don't matter at all and an FBS upset. We should get some clarity over the next two weeks, but for now, I'll stick with SDSU. I believe in Taryn Christion if nothing else.
Sam: This is almost impossible to truly know for sure, but I'm going to answer because this is the FCS Mailbag and we're going to give the people what they want. So I'm going to take this angle…I think Illinois State wins at home against SDSU on Oct. 27. BUT…I think SDSU is going to turn out to be a better team in the long run. So when you say who's the 2nd team to fear in the Valley, I'm going to use NDSU's perspective since the Bison are the No. 1 team in the conference. If I were the Bison, I'd be more worried about the Jacks this year than the Redbirds (both games are at home). If there's a team that can ruin NDSU's shot at a No. 1 or 2 seed, it's more SDSU than ISU.
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Adam Willey – What is the deal with the CAA? Who is good and who is not?
Brian: A lot of teams are good, that's the deal with the CAA. We have a clear cut No. 1 and a ton of good teams vying for No. 2 — and when I say good, I really mean it. IMO — CAA is better than the Valley right now, depth wise. Maybe not a "Top 3 vs. Top 3" but I'd say "Top 8 vs. Top 8" goes in favor of the CAA, and that's the definition of depth.
Chase: Great question. After hours, please come back for my science lecture, titled: "Space — where did it come from?" The thing about the CAA is that it has more quality depth than perhaps any other conference. I, alongside a lot of other people, expected the CAA to be deep, but I'm not sure anyone expected it to be this deep. So what we have is a conference with a behemoth at the top, some really good teams after that, and some talented, capable teams after that. If you remove JMU from the conference and look down the roster of 11 remaining teams, almost anyone can beat anyone. Sometimes, that's a bad thing, because a conference is inconsistent or doesn't have head-to-head chops against other nationally prominent programs. In the case of the CAA in 2018, I really do think it's more the case of just having a ton of really good teams. That's probably the difference between Towson upsetting Villanova and, say, Idaho State beating North Dakota, or The Citadel beating Mercer. If Towson played a SoCon schedule, they might make the playoffs. Instead, in the CAA, there's a good chance it's shoehorned into a spoiler role.
Sam: I plead the fifth. Honestly, minus maybe a couple teams…I think everyone else in the CAA can be considered a good FCS team.
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Kylor Neale – Anyway the OVC still could grab two playoff spots after Austin Peay bad Loss?
Brian: It's going to be really, really tough for the OVC — in its current state — to get an extra team beyond the auto bid. Keep an eye on teams like UT Martin, Austin Peay, Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky in terms of "going on a tear" the rest of the way, but in the current state? I don't think two would get in.
Chase: Probably not. Aside from Jacksonville State, nobody in that conference has the non-con schedule to really prove anything to anybody, and the OVC is without question a "Show Me Something" kind of conference. I want to believe in Tennessee State, but even that is still a tough sell, at this point.
Sam: I really don't see the OVC getting two playoff bids. While I think the conference is improving, it still needs that big-time out of conference win by a team below JSU. And then this year in the playoffs, the auto-bid (presumably JSU) needs to make a run. Having your conference champion earn the No. 3 seed the last two seasons and lose right away in the second round doesn't do your second and third-place teams any favors.
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Pat Wulfekuhle – Who are the Top 3 teams in the Big Sky after 4 weeks?
Brian: Take three Advil and call me around Halloween. Great question, honestly. I'll just throw it out there: Eastern Washington I feel is the clear front-runner and I've had that reflected in my playoff prediction ranking. Next, I'm going with UC Davis and after that? I'll go with Weber State over Montana State — so far.
Chase: Eastern Washington, Montana, UC Davis, and… Weber State? I'm going back and forth between Weber and Sac State, but I'll give it up for the boys from Utah. I think Sac State is going to come on strong here in the next few weeks and creep its way into the Top 25, but for now, I'm going to give Weber the nod. It's got the better non-conference win (South Dakota) and the better defense. It'll also host Sac State on Nov. 10. You know, in case you were wondering.
Sam: Eastern Washington, Weber and then Montana. To be really transparent, I don't feel great about that Top 3 in order just because it's still a small sample size. But I do feel confident that the Top 5 teams have separated themselves from the pack, and that's (alphabetical) EWU, Montana, Montana State, UC Davis and Weber. NAU and Sac State aren't too far behind though.
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Scott Moody – Which teams, highly ranked in the pre-season, likely saw their playoff chances all but disappear after suffering yet another loss this past weekend?
Brian: Possibly Samford. Of course, the Bulldogs can jump right back into the discussion with a win against Kennesaw State this weekend. Stay tuned.
Chase: I know there are two or three obvious answers to this question, but I'm going to go a little bit off the board here and say Furman. The Paladins got some top-25/top-40 hype in the preseason and were expected to be in contention for the playoffs as the third team out of the SoCon. That was before they were blown out by Clemson (predictable) and Elon (not outrageous, but still a tad surprising). A loss to East Tennessee State this past weekend takes them out of the picture completely. They will not return to the playoffs in 2018.
Sam: Either Samford or SHSU, but I lean more toward Samford. I still think the playoff committee is going to have three Southland conference teams in the field.
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Scott Monson – Thoughts on the NDSU vs SDSU game.
Brian: Oh man … this isn't a case of a patsy floating easily to the top of a Top 5 ranking to make this one a good one … these two programs are legit. And SDSU has won the past two regular season battles. How can you NOT respect that? And hey … they may have a playoff rematch … UH-gain. My thoughts on NDSU-SDSU? I don't care who wins, I just wish we had more games of this caliber in the FCS.
Chase: I hear it's going to be a pretty big one.
Sam: As I said on the podcast, this is the most anticipated/hyped/whatever-you-want-to-call-it regular season Fargodome game that I can remember for some time. No. 1 vs. No. 3 in the nation is literally almost as good as it gets. You know NDSU wants that Dakota Marker back. And you know SDSU wants to show this year's team is as good a team the Jacks have had. For me, there are far more signs that the Bison are going to win this game than vice versa. Last year, NDSU was still within a touchdown in the 4th quarter despite playing its worst game of the season with five turnovers. That was on the road and this game is in the Fargodome. Greg Menard is back this year. The Bison had some sacks left on the table last year, plays a guy like Menard makes. Jabril Cox is also going to be in a full-time/ full-game role. I expect him to spy Taryn Christion, which he did effectively against JMU's Bryan Schor. Cox is a legitimate difference-maker, as in he's the difference between a win and a loss. If he's not on the field in Frisco, James Madison is back-to-back national champs right now. NDSU wins Saturday by 10-14 points after a late score.
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Josh Pfau – Would NDSU and JMU be able to schedule good FBS opponents if they were willing to not get paid to play the game?
Brian: Nope. Usually, the FBS (ok, let's be honest … the P5s) schedule FCS games to get that bonus home game ($$$$$$$$) and an easy win. If the mentality is to get that one easy FCS win (per bowl eligibility rules), why in the hell would you PAY NDSU or JMU to come in and potentially knock you off? I mean, at this point? Kudos to N.C. State for bringing in JMU this year (I don't have the paperwork in front of me though, was that put on the sked prior to Houston taking over?) and kudos to Iowa and Ferentz for tempting fate in 2016 …. but notice nobody else has with NDSU since? NDSU and JMU would be favored in at least half of their FBS matchups if not 2/3rds. The only games where they'd clearly be outmatched on paper would be roughly perennial Top 25 programs. The dinosaurs of big-time age-old football. Anybody outside of that? Fair game to be the next loss.
Chase: What's the definition of good here? Winnable games? High-profile matchups? JMU will always have a major advantage in this conversation because there's just way more teams within easy driving distance over here on the east coast, but even still, I know for a fact there are programs out there who will not put the Dukes/Bison on the schedule under any circumstance. If you're holding out for an NDSU blowout of some poor MAC team, I wouldn't hold your breath. AD's are wise to who runs the FCS these days, and those two programs aren't sneaking up on anyone any time soon.
Sam: I don't think Brian or Chase answered your question … You're asking would NDSU or JMU play an FBS team with no guaranteed payout in order to get said FBS team on its schedule, right? I don't see that happening. While it's ideal to get an FBS game where it's in your recruiting area and also against a team you know you can compete with, the No. 1 reason these games are played is because of the payout…even if you are NDSU or JMU. Yes, it'd be so cool if Minnesota scheduled NDSU. But if the Bison don't get paid that game, why would you play it? Instead, you'd say "thanks for the offer, but we're just going to schedule a home game against an FCS team so we get to rake in thousands of dollars in ticket revenue." The only time the Bison will play for free on the road is if it's a conference game or a home-and-home agreement.
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Chris Hammond – How deep can UC Davis go?
Brian: Remains to be seen, but UC Davis has a couple things going for it …. No. 1? It has Dan Hawkins leading the program, and the man is a proven magician in D-I football. And when you have NFL caliber players like Keelan Doss (ask Stanford) and Jake Maier and Wes Preece? Yeah, this could be a Final 8 team with the right road. If UC Davis has to travel to NDSU in the 2nd round? That's not ideal, but you never know what the route may be.
Chase: I'm not as high on Davis as Brian and Sam are. As great as the Jake-to-Keelan connection is, I'm not sold on this team's defense yet. The team will go as far as the offense does, and that's a hell of an offense, but I don't think they're a true Big Sky contender. I do think they get an at-large bid to the playoffs and threaten to make the Final 8.
Sam: I think this team can be a Top 3 Big Sky squad and make the playoffs. Once there, I can see the Aggies making a run to the quarterfinals. But it all depends on matchups. I love watching this team because of its style of play. But I think we all know by now that that recipe doesn't equal a deep, deep playoff run.
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Preston Adams – Is Samford in a must win game now this weekend against Kennesaw?
Brian: AB-SO-LUTELY
Chase: Not yet. I do think they can lose this game, then win out and still squeak into the playoffs. If they're 7-4 at the end of the year, we'll look back and look favorably on this winning streak. The Bulldogs aren't a better team than KSU; they aren't a better team than Florida State; they shouldn't be favored to win at Chattanooga. So really, the only questionable loss here is at home to Mercer. If Samford is 7-4 at the end of the year with only one questionable loss, I don't think we blink too hard when we see their name in the bracket.
Sam: I'll say yes. While it's definitely possible Samford can win the rest of its games after KSU, there's a big problem on the schedule. Let's say the Bulldogs lose to KSU, but then win out to finish 7-4. That's not a bad record for a SoCon team. But the problem is that season-opening win against Shorter, a Division II team. The record might say 7-4, but all the playoff committee is going to see is 6-4. I know it's easier said than done for FCS programs, but stop scheduling non-counter games!
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