Usually at this point in the FCS season, we're talking about how many teams the Missouri Valley Football Conference is going to get in the playoffs in a good way. There are typically three, sometimes four teams who look like locks to get into the field with teams 5-7 on the bubble.
This year, we're talking about how many teams the MVFC gets into the playoffs in a different way.
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Right now, only North Dakota State and South Dakota State appear to be locks. After that, who knows?
All the other teams in playoff contention have four losses, a number that usually gets a MVFC program into the postseason. The problem is how many of these teams will suffer a fifth loss in the final two games. And then the question is, while it's happened before, how many, if any, five-loss teams from the Valley make the bracket.
Here are the teams in the standings that are still technically in the playoff hunt.
| Team | MVFC | Overall |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 6-0 | 9-0 |
| South Dakota State | 4-2 | 6-2 |
| Northern Iowa | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Western Illinois | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Indiana State | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Illinois State | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Missouri State | 2-4 | 4-5 |
There are going to be a whole lot of playoff elimination games these next two weeks.
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Saturday
- SDSU @ SIU
- UNI @ YSU
- Illinois State @ Indiana State
- WIU @ USD
- NDSU @ Missouri State
-UNI is 2-3 on the road this year and suffered a terrible 37-17 loss against WIU in its last away game. YSU looks like it had a torch lit under them with a close loss at NDSU last week.
-The loser of the Illinois State and Indiana State is probably going to be eliminated from the playoffs because both have a non-counter win.
-WIU travels to face its former head coach Bob Nielson, who is 1-1 against his old team as USD's head man.
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Nov. 17
- USD @ SDSU
- Missouri State @ UNI
- YSU @ Illinois State
- Indiana State @ WIU
- SIU @ NDSU
-Depending on what happened the previous week, we could see another playoff elimination game between Indiana State and WIU.
-YSU could continue to play spoiler at Illinois State in what some could be speculating as Bo Pelini's last game.
-UNI and SDSU will be favored at home, but the Jacks face a rival with nothing to lose and the Panthers are hot and cold.
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There's definitely a scenario where the third-place team in the MVFC has five overall losses. A more probable scenario is a 7-4 third-place team with a couple teams having five losses.
Does that mean the Valley only gets three teams in? This conference is still considered at least a Top 2 league in the FCS, if not the best with the CAA right there. The MVFC has a 5-3 head-to-head advantage over the Big Sky, considered the third best, in nonconference games. But with the Big Sky's unbalanced scheduling, it might be a situation where four teams look like they deserve to make the playoffs while the Valley only has three.
That's not an impossible scenario. But as shown in the past, the playoff committee has great respect for the MVFC. Even when the bubble has been packed, a 6-5 team in fifth place has gotten the nod. And with the SoCon, Southland and Big South probably having one less team in the bracket compared to 2017, it's looking likely the Valley will get four teams in, even if the fourth team is 6-5.
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NEXT: Predicting The Full Playoff Bracket
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