It's getting real now. With one week of games remaining, the FCS playoff bubble is loaded with four-loss teams and even five-loss teams who could factor into the equation.
The bubble could get bigger this weekend if three-loss teams lose. To give yourself a shot at the playoffs, the magic record is 7-4 with those seven wins coming against Division I opponents.
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MORE PLAYOFF CONTENT:
Predicting The Playoff Field After Week 11
Selection Show Info
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There are 22 teams with three or four losses vying for playoff positions right now. Let's take a look at each of these teams, how they've fared against other three or four-loss teams and what their chances look like to make the playoffs.
We'll rank the chances from bad, low, decent, likely and very good.
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Big Sky
Idaho State (6-4, 5-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – UND, Mont. St.
The Bengals will not be able to reach seven D1 victories because of a non-counter win and hosts highly-ranked Weber State this weekend. A win would be hard to keep them out at 6-2 in the Big Sky and with wins against bubble teams UND and Montana State.
Playoff chances: Decent
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Montana (6-4, 4-3 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Losses – UND
The Griz could finish 7-4 and on a three-game winning streak if they beat rival Montana State. The problem is none of those wins would be against teams in the playoff field unless Northern Iowa snuck in with five losses. And UND (if the Hawks win) would for sure get the nod over Montana with its 41-14 head-to-head win.
Playoff chances: Low
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Montana State (6-4, 4-3 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Losses – Idaho St.
MSU is in the same predicament as Montana with none of its wins coming against playoff teams, unless WIU gets in at 6-5. What does help is three of the losses are against Top 5 teams. If the Bobcats win at Montana and Idaho State doesn't pull off the upset on Weber, they have a decent shot.
Playoff chances: Decent
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Big South
Monmouth (7-3, 3-1 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: N/A
Kennesaw State won the auto-bid Saturday by beating Monmouth 51-14. Last year, the Hawks got into the playoffs as an at-large team with a 9-2 record. But the playoff committee may have learned from its mistake after they lost 46-7 at UNI.
Playoff chances: Low
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CAA
Maine (7-3, 6-1 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Towson
So admittedly most of these CAA teams aren't actually on the bubble. But since all the top teams have three overall losses, it'll be interesting to see where every team lands and if five or six teams make the field. Maine plays Elon this weekend and could get a seed with a win because of a 7-2 record against FCS opponent and an FBS win. It'd be shocking if a loss knocked the Black Bears out.
Playoff chances: Very Good
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Delaware (7-3, 5-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Elon, Towson; Losses – SBU
The Blue Hens host Villanova, who's really struggling at 4-6 overall and 1-6 in the CAA. A loss could be disastrous as the committee would look for an excuse to not have six CAA teams make the field. But a win is probable.
Playoff chances: Likely
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James Madison (7-3, 5-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – SBU; Losses – Elon
The winner of JMU and Towson has a very good shot at a seed. The loser will be playing in the first round. The James Madison brand will make the committee not even sniff at the thought of leaving the Dukes out at 7-4. And Towson would have an FBS loss and big wins against Stony Brook and Elon in its pocket to go with a 7-4 record.
Playoff chances: Very Good
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Stony Brook (7-3, 5-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Dela.; Losses – Towson, JMU
The Seawolves may have saved its season last week with a big win against Delaware. If they would have lost, their 7-4 record wouldn't have looked overly impressive as far as wins. Now, Stony Brook has to avoid an upset at the hands of CAA winless Albany and it's in the bracket.
Playoff chances: Likely
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Towson (7-3, 5-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – SBU, Elon; Losses – Dela., Maine
See the JMU explanation.
Playoff chances: Very Good
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Elon (6-3, 4-2 conf. )
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – JMU, Furman; Losses – Towson, Dela.
If the committee doesn't want to put six CAA teams in, Elon has the best chance to be the one left out with a tough game coming at Maine. If the Phoenix win and no upsets happen elsewhere, the committee might have no choice but to put six teams in the bracket. Elon's best card to play is its win against JMU. That pulls a lot of weight. But a canceled game against William & Mary might come back to bite if a loss at Maine occurs and its final record is 6-4. A bad 41-10 home loss to Towson this last week also hurts.
Playoff chances: Decent
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Independent
North Dakota (6-4, 4-3 vs. Big Sky)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Mont.; Losses – Idaho St.
Being an independent may help UND here instead of getting lost in the Big Sky shuffle. The problem for the Fighting Hawks is none of their wins are against playoff teams. The Hawks need to take care of business at struggling Northern Arizona, then should hope for Montana to beat Montana State, so the Bobcats don't get in at 7-4 and UND has the head-to-head on Montana. They should also hope for Idaho State to lose so that head-to-head is thrown out the window because the Bengals would only have five D1 wins. A lot has to happen, and even if it does work out this way, it's a shot in the dark on how the committee views UND.
Playoff chances: Decent
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MVFC
Indiana State (6-4, 4-3 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: N/A
The Sycamores have the advantage of being the only team in the Valley other than NDSU and SDSU to have less than five losses. The bad news? One of the wins is a non-counter, making seven D1 wins impossible to hit. What does help is a win at WIU ends their regular season on a five-game winning streak. The Leathernecks have five losses but should feel a win gives them a decent chance at the playoffs.
Playoff chances: Low
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NEC
Duquesne (7-3), Central Connecticut State (6-4) and Sacred Heart (6-4) are all 4-1 in the NEC. This conference is unlikely to get a second team in the playoffs outside the auto-bid.
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OVC
SEMO (7-3, 5-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – JSU; Losses – EKU
SEMO cost itself the auto-bid by blowing a 31-0 second-quarter lead and losing 40-38 to Murray State, which gave Jacksonville State the OVC championship. SEMO has to hope the committee gives this conference an at-large bid, something that hasn't happened in a few years. The Redhawks should beat Eastern Illinois this weekend, and with an 8-3 record and a 37-14 win vs. JSU, they have a good shot to make the bracket.
Playoff chances: Likely
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Eastern Kentucky (6-4, 4-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – SEMO; Losses – JSU
Two of EKU's losses are to FBS teams and the Colonels have a win on SEMO. Even if they beat Tennessee Tech to get to seven wins, having three OVC teams in the bracket just seems unlikely. The conference hasn't proven it deserves that and a 6-5 MVFC team or a 7-4 Big Sky team would get the nod instead.
Playoff chances: Bad
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SoCon
Wofford (7-3, 6-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Chatt., ETSU; Losses – Furman
A lot can happen in the SoCon standings this weekend with ETSU 6-1, Wofford 6-2 and Furman 5-2. The Terriers need to take care of business and avoid an upset by Presbyterian. The SoCon could get three teams into the playoffs. A win for the Terriers and they're one of those three. Wofford has the playoff pedigree, eight wins in the fourth best FCS conference and a close FBS loss.
Playoff chances: Likely
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Furman (5-4, 5-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Wofford, Chatt.; Losses – Elon, ETSU
Furman somehow has a chance at the auto-bid if everything is tied at the top of the standings at 6-2 and if the Paladins hold Mercer to less than 17 points Saturday. Tiebreakers come down to fewest points allowed in conference play. That would mean ETSU needs to lose at home to Samford, which is certainly possible. One hurdle for Furman is its game against Colgate getting canceled, which makes only six D1 wins possible. A 34-14 head-to-head win against Wofford may or may not make up for that. But Furman needs to hope for an ETSU loss and have a good defensive performance.
Playoff chances: Low
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Chattanooga (6-4, 4-4 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Losses – Furman, ETSU, Wofford
If the Mocs upset FBS South Carolina, it'd be pretty tough to leave them out at 7-4. That's a big if, though.
Playoff chances: Bad
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Southland
Nicholls (7-3, 6-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Lamar, UIW; Losses – McNeese, Abilene Christian
The Southland is a mess and assuming a team has an easy win this week is a mistake. But Nicholls has avoided these bigs upsets the last three games. Beat SELA at home, and the Colonels are in. Lose, and a 7-4 record with an FBS win still gives you a solid shot.
Playoff chances: Likely
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Incarnate Word (6-4, 6-2 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Abilene Christian, McNeese; Losses – Lamar, Nicholls
The Cardinals may have made a costly mistake. They were set to play FCS newcomer North Alabama this week but canceled that game for a payday at Iowa State on Dec. 1. This was possible because of Iowa State's game vs. SDSU at the beginning of this season getting canceled due to weather. There is a clause in the contract that says if UIW makes the FCS playoffs, it won't play Iowa State. Well … UIW cost itself a chance at a seventh D1 win by not playing North Alabama. Is a 6-2 record in the Southland good enough to get you in the bracket? We'll see.
Playoff chances: Low
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Abilene Christian (6-4, 5-3 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Nicholls; Losses – UIW, McNeese
The Wildcats can't reach seven D1 wins because of a non-counter victory. Things could get interesting if Nicholls loses and the Wildcats beat Central Arkansas to be tied in the standings and Abilene Christian owning the head-to-head win. But Nicholls would still own the better overall resume.
Playoff chances: Bad
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Lamar (6-4, 5-3 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – UIW; Losses – Nicholls
Lamar has a non-counter win. Not good. A win against McNeese and a Nicholls loss would again make things interesting. The Southland might be such a mess and if all this goes down, the playoff committee might not even bother choosing an at-large bid from this conference.
Playoff chances: Bad
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McNeese (6-4, 5-3 conf.)
Bubble head-to-head: Wins – Nicholls, Abilene Christian; Losses – UIW
The Cowboys are too unpredictable and have cost themselves a number of times this year. Back-to-back bad losses to SELA and Northwestern State really diminished their playoff chances. Even if they beat Lamar to get to 7-4 along with a head-to-head win against Nicholls, it's iffy if that's good enough to make the bracket.
Playoff chances: low
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