Every week of action in the FCS shapes the playoff picture. While coaches and players will give you the cliche answer of wanting to compete for a conference championship, the long-term goal is always to set yourself up for a playoff seed or a playoff bid.
As more games are played and conference foes eat each other up, the 24-team bracket is going to change. But our FCS staff of Brian McLaughlin, Chase Kiddy and Sam Herder are going to make weekly predictions on what they think the playoff field is going to look like.
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BennettRank: NDSU is No. 1, but Who's No. 2?
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This is a combination of what would happen if the season ended today while also recognizing what lies ahead on each team's schedule.
The guys break down their seeds, first-round teams, the last three in and the last three left out in the table below:
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| SLOT | BRIAN | CHASE | SAM |
| 1 | NDSU | NDSU | NDSU |
| 2 | JMU | JMU | JMU |
| 3 | KSU | Nicholls | KSU |
| 4 | SDSU | Nova | Nicholls |
| 5 | EWU | KSU | SDSU |
| 6 | Samford | Samford | N. Ariz. |
| 7 | Nicholls | EWU | Nova |
| 8 | Wofford | N. Ariz. | UC Davis |
| NEC | St. Francis | CCSU | CCSU |
| PAT | Colgate | Colgate | Colgate |
| PIO | USD | USD | USD |
| Non-seed1 | Nova | Mont. | EWU |
| Non-seed2 | UC Davis | Wofford | Samford |
| Non-seed3 | N. Ariz. | SDSU | Mont. |
| Non-seed | Ill. St. | Furman | Ill. St. |
| Non-seed | JSU | JSU | JSU |
| Non-seed | Maine | UNI | Maine |
| Non-seed | Mont. | S. Dak. | Mon. St. |
| Non-seed | Mont. St. | SHSU | SHSU |
| Non-seed | SHSU | Stony B. | S. Dak. |
| Non-seed | S. Dak. | UC Davis | Wofford |
| Last 3 in | UNI | Dela. | Rhode Isl. |
| Last 3 in | Aust. Peay | Mont. St. | McNeese |
| Last 3 in | Elon | McNeese | WIU |
| Bubble | |||
| 1st 3 out | Rhode Isl. | Ill. St. | Chatt. |
| 1st 3 out | SIU | Monm. | Dela. |
| 1st 3 out | Dela. | UNH | UNH |
Table notes
- “1-8” – Is obviously where we think schools will fit in as seeds, based on results so far.
- “NEC, PAT AND PIO” – The automatic berths for the NEC, Patriot and Pioneer conferences.
- “Non-seed 1,2,3” – These are the best three teams not seeded, ranked 1, 2, 3.
- “Non-seed” – These are the next batch of at-large teams in alphabetical order.
- “Last 3 in” – The last three teams we think squeak in.
- “1st 3 out – The first three schools left out of the bracket.
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Brian's Thoughts:
First of all, I’m firmly standing by our rule that if an FCS team loses to an FBS by several touchdowns, we throw that data out the window. If an FCS team beats an FBS or comes very close to winning, I will factor that in as a positive.
Since this is Week 1, this listing is obviously a bit raw since we have only one full week of results in. This list will change drastically over the next few weeks but indicates who I thought looked the most like a playoff team.
Probably the most impressive showings were by Nicholls, Villanova, UC Davis and Northern Arizona, thus the reasons they are getting the seeding or near-seeding respect. An FBS win will do that. Maine and the Montana schools also jump off the page.
More data, please! Can’t wait for this weekend.
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Chase's Thoughts:
We've talked about the CAA, the Big Sky and the Missouri Valley all offseason, so I wasn't surprised to see the best three conferences in FCS post a myriad of impressive results in Week 1 of the 2018 college football schedule. Relative to expectation, the most impressive had to be Villanova taking down nearby FBS rival Temple. Other #FearTheFCS wins happened, courtesy of Nicholls, UC Davis and Northern Arizona, but all three of those were heavily predicted and expected.
The Villanova upset, on the other hand, came as a shock. In the wake of other high-profile CAA upsets, Villanova's crosstown win restructures the early conference pecking order, boosting the defense-minded Wildcats into a seeded position. As of right now, Villanova's mid-October home game with JMU has been recalibrated as one of the most high-profile games of the season.
Out west, we've got to give some love to the Big Sky, where both Montana schools scored big perception-shifting wins over top-half Missouri Valley teams. I was concerned about the quality at the top of the Big Sky, but these Week 1 wins were a step in quieting my criticisms.
Valley-CAA watch: Both teams have four teams in my playoffs, with the Colonial scoring two of the top four spots. The Big Sky actually has five teams in these first rankings, though I doubt that'll last very long.
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Sam's Thoughts:
This was not a good week for the MVFC, which has led the FCS in playoff bids the last handful of seasons. The Big Sky went 2-1 over the weekend with Montana State looking impressive over WIU and Montana dominating UNI, who I had picked the No. 2 team in the MVFC, for most of the game. This was two non-playoff teams last year taking down two playoff teams. YSU losing to non-scholarship Butler also diminishes the Valley's 2018 reputation.
The CAA and Big Sky, meanwhile, had strong showings with FBS wins. The Delaware and UNH losses are head scratching and could be an indicator of how much the CAA teams are going to beat up on each other. The same will happen in the Big Sky.
But right now, the Power 3 FCS conferences dominate my playoff field. It's probably going to remain that way for the rest of the season because I'm a firm believer that the more teams from the Big Sky, CAA and MVFC (no matter their records), the stronger the playoff bracket is.
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NEXT: ESPN College GameDay Predictions – Ranking Best Chances for an FCS Game in 2018
