If you’ve made it this far in my Doomed Dukes series, congratulations. For 11 straight games, I prognosticated how James Madison might be susceptible to a loss. If you’re a fan of the Dukes, that couldn’t have been easy to read.
My analysis of the Dukes ranged from serious to psychological to downright satirical. As astute readers picked up on, I never really suspected JMU was liable to lose a game. But there were, at times, vulnerabilities worth pointing out and discussing. That’s what I tried to do, when appropriate.
However, with the playoffs here, the time for clever pageantry has come and gone. It’s time to come clean on what seems most likely, at least to my admittedly purple-toned eyes:
JMU is likely to repeat as the FCS national champions, and there’s a laundry list of reasons why.
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DOOMED NO MORE: WHY JAMES MADISON WILL WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (again)
The thing about FCS football is that it’s an intentionally incomplete product. For a variety of reasons, teams from Division 1’s lower subdivision opt to play with fewer scholarships than their FBS brethren. FCS teams rarely have the depth to compete with Power 5 schools because of scholarship guidelines. However, the top 1% of FCS players are usually just as good as their FBS peers, which is why schools like Eastern Washington and Youngstown State put just as many players in last year’s NFL draft as Michigan State, Notre Dame and Stanford.
Schools like JMU are the notable exception. James Madison has fielded decent teams for well over a decade — despite what fans of other Virginia schools might tell you, they haven’t had a losing season since 2002 — but the Dukes didn’t become truly great until Mike Houston’s arrival in 2016.
Now, Houston has Madison on that rarest of short lists — teams who you know are going to show up every game. You can’t back into a win against the Dukes; you’re going to have to line up and beat them.
The problem with that, if you’re a fan of an FCS team other than the one in Harrisonburg, is that they’re really good. JMU has the requisite talent and depth to go back-to-back, and the honest truth is that there’s probably only one or two other teams in the country that stand a chance at ending the Dukes 23-game winning streak.
Unlike last year, the team’s success starts with its defense. The team has allowed just 99 points throughout the whole year, and almost a quarter of those were from non-offensive touchdowns. Since the beginning of October, the Dukes have allowed four touchdowns. Not four touchdowns per game, mind you. Four touchdowns total. (Two were in garbage time.)
The defensive front isn’t the best in the country or anything, but it’s certainly better than most. JMU fields a good, athletic front with a deep stable of linebackers. In JMU’s 4-2-5 base scheme, all six front players get plenty of rotation and rest.
The real strength is the secondary. JMU ranks first nationally in passing defense efficiency, second in passing yards allowed and third in total interceptions. Defensive backs Raven Greene, Rashad Robinson, Jimmy Moreland and Jordan Brown are All-CAA honorees who rank in the top 75 nationally for interceptions.
“We wanted to be the number one defensive back group in the nation and we kind of held that standard up,” Robinson told Daily News Record reporter Greg Madia earlier this month. Yeah, I'd say. Mission accomplished.
What JMU has done in its defensive backfield is reminiscent of how the Seattle Seahawks have built their defense in the NFL — not only is each player supremely talented, but the combined force is greater than the sum of the parts. It’s the key to the entire defense’s success. The tight, effective coverage lends momentum to the pass rush, which is already talented in its own right.
RELATED: Madison's Defense is Historically Dominant
It’s going to take a special sort of offense to vanquish JMU’s defense. South Dakota State offers an intriguing challenge in a potential semifinal game; North Dakota State is the obvious headliner in a potential championship rematch between the top two programs in FCS.
All that is without even mentioning JMU’s burgeoning offense, which, much like the Dukes’ 2016 defense, appears to be coming online just as the playoffs are starting.
Madison does technically lead the CAA in scoring offense at 35.9 points per game, but even a casual observer would probably notice that the Dukes have been stuck in second gear for most of the season.
Still, there are reasons to believe JMU may be on the cusp of solving its offensive inconsistency. After an entire season of injuries, illnesses and fixing problems on the fly, JMU’s battered offensive line does finally seem to be coming together. All-American left tackle Aaron Stinnie is healthy again, and All-American tight end Jonathan Kloosterman — nagged by flu-like symptoms during the heart of the season — is back in the lineup and doing important work as a blocker. (Typically, he’s viewed as more of a receiving threat, comparable to Jason Witten.)
JMU wields an especially decisive advantage on special teams, where its unmatched depth gets a chance to shine. On defense, they’re a threat to block every kick; on offense, Aussie freshman Harry O’Kelly can pin teams inside the 20 from virtually anywhere on the field. (He’s also ran for multiple first downs on fakes this year.)
And with that defense, if you play the field position game with JMU, you’re going to lose.
It’s time to shake off the superstition and just say out loud what’s going on in Harrisonburg.
Even more so than last year, this JMU team is nearly perfect.
“JMU looks like an FBS team,” one analyst said at the conclusion of ESPN's Selection Show earlier this month. I suppose they do.
Most Saturdays this year, these games have felt like an unfair fight. That’s why JMU is likely going to win another national championship.
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NEXT: FCS Podcast: James Madison Coach Mike Houston
