Just like that, we’re down to the final eight teams in the FCS playoffs. The quarterfinals have a great mix, from FCS blue bloods (New Hampshire, James Madison, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State) to consistent playoff teams (South Dakota State and Wofford) to the new teams hoping to climb the FCS ranks (Weber State and Kennesaw State). It’s hard to argue that these aren’t the best eight teams in the FCS. And quite honestly, all are good enough in their own rights to hoist the national championship.
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Of course, some are more likely than others. So in the opinion of this writer and this writer alone, here are the favorites to win the whole dang thing, from least likely to most likely.
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8. New Hampshire
The Wildcats had a lot of us wondering if they truly deserved to be in the playoffs after an underwhelming 14-0 win against Central Connecticut State in the first round. But they showed their worth last weekend, knocking off No. 4 seed Central Arkansas 21-15.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 5 South Dakota State vs. New Hampshire
UNH is legit defensively, containing a high-powered UCA offense. Now it’s another road trip at SDSU against another great passing attack. If the Wildcats pull out a win there, then it’s a likely a return trip to the defending champs JMU, where they lost 21-0 in late October. Much respect to the UNH program that’s made 14 straight playoff appearances. But the odds are stacked quite high for a national crown to happen.
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7. Weber State
Just like UNH, Weber’s path just to make it to Frisco, Texas, goes through JMU and likely SDSU. That would be three straight road wins against a seeded team. The Wildcats knocked off No. 8 Southern Utah 30-13 in impressive fashion last week.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 1 James Madison vs. Weber State
This is a solid team at 11-2. The only losses have come against FBS California and SUU in the regular season. Quarterback Stefan Cantwell seems to get better each week. Against SUU, he threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 105 yards and a score. Defensively, the Wildcats are stout against the run and have the best special teams in the FCS. They’re the top of the Big Sky Conference class. But that’s not quite good enough to defeat the defending champs Friday night.
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6. Kennesaw State
The best story in the FCS playoffs right now. The Owls weren’t even a program when NDSU won its fourth straight FCS national championship in 2014. Now they’re building quickly to a top team in the FCS. Out of the Big South, KSU has gone from 6-5 to 8-3 to 11-1 this season.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 6 Sam Houston State vs. Kennesaw State
The triple option offense caused headaches last week in a 17-7 “upset” at No. 3 Jacksonville State, who was said to have a top defense in the country. Now KSU has a legit shot to knock off No. 6 SHSU, a team with little emphasis on defense, this weekend. But could the Owls’ run game have enough success against a Wofford, NDSU or JMU defense? That remains a big question mark.
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5. 6th-seeded Sam Houston State
SHSU has the most explosive offense remaining in the playoffs with the most pro-ready quarterback, Jeremiah Briscoe. Weapons are all over the field and not even Missouri Valley Football Conference member South Dakota, a league known for its tough defense, could stop the Bearkats. They rolled for 54 points and a ridiculous 708 offensive yards.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 6 Sam Houston State vs. Kennesaw State
Here’s the problem: there’s going to be a game sometime in these playoffs where the SHSU offense may only score 28 points. And its defense isn’t good enough to hold an opponent this far in the playoffs under that total. The unit has only done that five times in 12 games. And the likes of Incarnate Word, Stephen F. Austin and Lamar aren’t exactly JMU, SDSU or NDSU.
USD scored 28 points in the second half alone and had 637 total yards in the game to come back in the second half before falling 54-42.
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4. 7th-seeded Wofford
The Terriers have the recipe to win a championship: run the ball and play disciplined, solid defense. Anytime a team has less than a week to solve the option offense rubik's cube, it’s probably going to be a long day for that defense.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 2 North Dakota State vs. No. 7 Wofford
Wofford heads to NDSU this weekend. The last time these two faced each other, it was a 14-7 Bison victory in the 2012 quarterfinals. All the players are gone from that game. But both schemes remain the same. Add in the fact that the Bison are a run-first team that isn’t as explosive against teams with a great front seven, and the Terriers are going to be in this game.
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3. 5th-seeded South Dakota State
The general consensus during this offseason was if one team not named JMU or NDSU were to win the national title, it’d be the Jackrabbits. Two early conference losses had most changing their mind on that stance. But now it seems many have flipped back to the Jacks as being that third team in the mix. And for good reason.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 5 South Dakota State vs. New Hampshire
They’ve won six in a row, handled the Bison at home and took care of conference foe Northern Iowa in the second round. Plus SDSU has a passing attack that can finally match up with a terrific JMU secondary in the semifinals. If the Jacks and Dukes do meet up next week, don’t be surprised to see the predictions split 50/50.
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2. 2nd-seeded North Dakota State
NDSU is a better football team than it was a year ago. That’s an opinion echoed by San Diego head coach Dale Lindsey. His Toreros took Northern Arizona, a top team in the Big Sky Conference, to the woodshed in the first round. The Bison then basically manhandled USD a week later, which goes to show they are a tier above most of the ranked/playoff teams in the FCS.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 2 North Dakota State vs. No. 7 Wofford
The defense was without defensive tackle Nate Tanguay and linebackers Nick DeLuca and Jabril Cox last season in the playoffs. All are all-American type players. NDSU’s offense, though, has been inconsistent. Quarterback Easton Stick has been great. And then he’s been average. And then sometimes he’s been bad. The running game can be dominant. And then it can have no push by the offensive line whatsoever.
If a team can stop the Bison’s run and make the receivers beat you, the odds of winning increase significantly. But this NDSU team is too experienced, too deep and simply too good to have an off day and slip up before a trip to Frisco happens.
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1. top-seeded James Madison
Since Mike Houston took over as head coach, no FCS team has been better than the Dukes. While the offense doesn’t have the firepower like it did last season, the defense more than makes up for it. Stony Brook quarterback Joe Carbone had his season interceptions total almost triple by the time the JMU secondary got done with him, picking off five passes.
QUARTERFINALS: No. 1 James Madison vs. Weber State
Truth be told, though, is the fact that the Dukes’ road to Frisco isn’t paved as smoothly as the other side of the bracket. Weber State will be no pushover. And SDSU’s offense could cause problems with two NFL Draft prospects at tight end and wide receiver, although SHSU’s passing attack was no match last season in the playoffs. If a return to Frisco is earned, odds are that date is going to be with NDSU. As mentioned above, the Bison are better overall than last season after losing 27-17 at home to JMU in the semifinals. The question now is how much better are the Dukes this season? And can NDSU close that 10-point gap?
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NEXT: Predicting the Next 5 FCS Football National Champions
