Twenty-four of 130 FBS programs changed head coaches during or after the 2019 season. Twenty-seven did so a year earlier, and 21 programs changed coaches after the 2017 season. More than half of all FBS programs (66) have changed coaches in the last three years, while another 28 have done so in the last five years.
Only 33 percent of head coaches hired from 2005-14 lasted at least six years, and the average tenure for head coaches in college football history is fewer than four years. Given the sport's obsession with "changes in leadership" and "new directions," it's shocking any program is led by a fifth-, 10th-, or in the case of Kirk Ferentz, a 22nd-year head coach.
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Ferentz is one of only 14 current FBS head coaches who were hired before the 2010 season (full breakdown of where every FBS coach was 10 years ago), or barely 10 percent of all head coaches. Will Ferentz, one of only two current head coaches hired before 2005, last another 10 years at Iowa?
Which current FBS coaches will last until 2030?
Barring a dramatic overhaul in leadership and expectations, Kirk Ferentz, 64 and, for what it's worth, with six more years on his contract, has built his career on consistency and there's no reason to bet against him lasting another 10 seasons.
Lincoln Riley is an easy one. If you had to bet the farm on one coach lasting until 2030, it's Lincoln Riley, right?
Former Mountain West foes Gary Patterson and Kyle Whittingham make the list, as do longtime coaches Pat Fitzgerald and David Shaw.
That's six. If the last decade repeats itself, we need eight more current head coaches to last until 2030.
Despite Alabama rumblings and occasional threats of, “If that ever gets to where that’s not enough, then it’s time for me to move on somewhere else," Dabo Swinney is a well-paid 50-year-old king atop a college football empire. You don't bet against coaches like that.
You also don't against Paul Chryst, a born-and-bred program man in a comfortable job with reasonable expectations. While the hometown-boy angle is often overplayed and ignores obvious elements (e.g. Bryan Harsin), Chryst isn't leaving his hometown, alma mater, and dream job voluntarily.
That's eight coaches.
High-expectations programs don't keep coaches for a decade or longer without one or multiple national championships. I think Dan Mullen wins one or multiple national championships over the next 10 years and is Florida head coach in 2020. Same for Kirby Smart, though recent offensive ineptitude has lowered my 10-year confidence.
Ten.
Virginia is not a premier FBS job. It's not even a top-25 job (maybe a fringe top-40 job?), but it's a good, stable job with reasonable expectations at an elite school in a great area of the country. That was enough to poach Bronco Mendenhall from one of the most stable jobs in America. And if Mendenhall delivers bowl eligibility every year and the occasional ACC title flirtation, it's enough to keep him in Charlottesville for another 10 years.
Willie Fritz had three head-coaching jobs last decade: Sam Houston State (2010-13), Georgia Southern (2014-15), and Tulane (2016-present). For what it's worth, he was at Central Missouri for 13 seasons before taking the Sam Houston job, but Willie Fritz is a journeyman. However, he might be in a sweet spot for this list. The 60-year-old Fritz is old enough to scare off some potential Power Five suitors but young enough to coach for another decade.
Twelve.
Two recent hires: Mike Norvell and Chris Klieman.
Unlike Mullen and Smart, Norvell hasn't started yet and has at least two or three years of slack before national relevance expectations. He's young, level-headed, calculated, and brilliant on and off the field. Mike Norvell could be a 20-year coach in Tallahassee, as could Klieman in Manhattan. There's a far greater threat of Klieman leaving than Norvell, though, as several college football insiders and people around the Kansas State program have noted, Chris Klieman feels like a Kansas State guy.
Notable exclusions: In 2018, and to a slightly lesser extent in 2019, this list would've been built for Scott Frost. A young, beloved head coach returning to restore glory at his alma mater, Frost was ripe for a decades-long run in Lincoln. After two disastrous years on and off the field, Frost isn't anywhere near the hot seat but it's hard not to question his long-term viability at Nebraska.
Nick Saban brushes aside retirement questions with "Why would I want to retire?" comments, and at 68 years old, Saban could coach another 10 years. Still, at 68 years old, that's a tough bet. Same goes for 75-year-old Frank Solich, who's tied with Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy for the third-longest-tenured head coach in college football. And Mike Gundy's flirtation with other jobs always makes him a ripe candidate for departure.
Bryan Harsin is a Boise native and former Broncos' quarterback and longtime assistant entering his seventh year as head coach. However, as B.J. Rains (Idaho Press-Tribune) said on the High Motor podcast last year, interest in other jobs suggest Harsin isn't a Boise lifer.
