Wisconsin is just an explosive quarterback away from college football dominance.
We love hypotheticals — situations that would never actually happen, but are fun to think about. Here's one that came up in the office: what if Lamar Jackson was the Badgers' quarterback? Would they be the best team in the country? The default favorite for the college football national championship.
Let's take a look at a few variables: [divider]
Lamar Jackson vs. Alex Hornibrook
This article is not meant to bash the Wisconsin signal caller — he's a young kid with plenty of promise. But Hornibrook isn't Jackson. Nobody is. As it stands, Hornibroook is No. 12 in the Big Ten in total passing with 1,040 yards, 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. All of his rushing yards have come in situations when the pocket breaks down, and none were pretty. He had -16 yards against Michigan, -34 against Ohio State and -17 against Iowa.
By this point, most college football fans know what Jackson has done. Through nine games the Heisman frontrunner has 2,753 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. Jackson has another 1,181 yards on the ground with another 19 scores. On Oct. 22, the Louisville star had more touchdowns than 88 percent of FBS teams … just let that sink in for a moment.
HORNIBROOK | STAT | JACKSON |
---|---|---|
150 | PASS ATTEMPTS | 288 |
57.3 | COMPLETION % | 59.0 |
1,040 | PASS YARDS | 2,753 |
6.9 | YARDS PER ATTEMPT | 9.6 |
6 | TOUCHDOWNS | 26 |
7 | INTERCEPTIONS | 6 |
119.44 | QB RATING | 164.95 |
18.8 | ATTEMPTS PER GAME | 32.0 |
130 | PASS YARDS PER GAME | 305.9 |
-75 | RUSH YARDS | 1,181 |
0 | RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS | 19 |
[divider]
Wisconsin Offense vs. Louisville Offense
The efficiency of any offense always starts with the quarterback. If an offense has a dynamic threat as its signal caller, it thrives — like Louisville has. If an offense has a raw freshman whose main goal is to avoid mistakes, it sputters more than it succeeds.
Wisconsin's lack of productivity on offense is the only reason Paul Chryst's squad is on the outside of the College Football Playoff picture right now, rather than front and center. It ranks No. 10 in the Big Ten, averaging just 371.6 yards per game and 5.22 yards per play. Corey Clement has been solid in the backfield but defenses understand he is the Badgers' only true threat. They game-plan for him and make Wisconsin one-dimensional.
The Badgers have converted just 75.76 percent of their red zone attempts (No. 9 in Big Ten).
The Wisconsin offense ranks No. 11 in the Big Ten averaging 371.6 yards per game. (Photo by Merle Laswell/Icon Sportswire).
If Jackson was the quarterback in Madison, could you imagine the numbers Clement would post? Louisville boasts the top offense in the nation, and let's be honest, it's because of Jackson. The Cardinals average 593.4 yards per game. Jackson accounts for 305.9 of them through the air and 133.2 on the ground, leaving just 154.3 for all other Cardinals players. Louisville has converted 85.96 percent of its attempts to the red zone and 44.07 percent of its third down attempts.
Wisconsin has only scored more than 30 points once this season — when they scored 54 in Week 2 against Akron, a team that has allowed an average of 35.6 points per game against one of the easiest schedules in college football (according to College Football Reference). Jackson and the Cardinals, on the other hand, have posted more than 30 points in every game but one.
If the Louisville signal caller played for Wisconsin, we would be having a much different conversation in terms of the Badgers' Playoff hopes. [divider]
Let's talk about defense
The Badgers' defense is the only reason they are 7-2 and remain on the fringe of contention for a January game. This is one of the better defenses in the country — one that allows just 302.8 yards per game (4th in the FBS) and 4.73 yards per play (12th).
Louisville's defense has quietly earned a No.1 ranking in the ACC. (Louisville Athletics).
Louisville's defense is vastly underrated. It's the top group in the ACC, allowing just 293.1 yards per game (12th in the FBS) and 4.4 yards per play (8th). On paper, it seems Wisconsin and Louisville are nearly identical defensively, so wouldn't Wisconsin with Lamar Jackson basically just be Louisville?
Well, not exactly. Wisconsin has amassed these impressive defensive numbers against one of the toughest schedules in college football (College Football Reference has their strength of schedule ranked fifth in the division). The Badgers have faced two of the top five scoring offenses in the country — Michigan (3) and Ohio State (5) — and allowed 14 and 30 points in those games. Lousiville's strength of schedule is No. 23. The two best scoring offenses Louisville has faced? Clemson and Florida State at No. 21 and 41, respectively. The Cardinals allowed 42 and 20 points in those games.
There are more considerations to this question as well, like the differences in offensive line and offensive skill players, but Wisconsin doesn't lack talent. Wisconsin's 2014 recruiting class ranked No. 33 in the nation while Louisville ranked No. 45. That means a majority of the players on the field in Madison right now are (very broadly speaking) just as talented as Louisville players, if not more so. The Cardinals are posting better numbers with less talent, largely because of their quarterback.
Just look at the two losses on Wisconsin's schedule — the Badgers fell to Michigan by just 7 points, and Ohio State 8. Those were with Hornibrook under center. It's impossible to predict the outcome with Jackson at quarterback, but if the games were that close with a below-average freshman, it's not outlandish to say Wisconsin would have won both of those with the Heisman frontrunner leading the offense.
If Jackson was the Wisconsin quarterback, the Badgers would easily be the best team in college football.