College football recruiting rankings are a huge part of the annual media cycle. Websites like 24/7 Sports and Rivals have become go-to sources for FBS fans with the player's ranking being the biggest factor in determining how good a potential prospect really is.
The best 250-300 players in the nation earn a 4-star designation, while only about 25 prospects per year are tabbed 5-star recruits. These are the blue-chippers.
So how much do these recruiting rankings really matter? It's hard to tell. They certainly matter for the prospects themselves, who live and die by these stars. It matters for college football fans as well — always nice to hear your school landed a four or five-star guy. But as far as projecting the true potential of these athletes? It's not an exact science. A quick look at this year's NFL Pro Bowl roster is telling.
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According to Jake Steinberg — a 22-year old college student who has developed a reputation as notable marketer for NFL players — did a little research surrounding this year's Pro Bowl roster. He found 37 of the 88 players headed to the NFL Pro Bowl were 3-star or lower recruits. Interesting stuff.
I'm sorry. Meant to say 37 out of 88 (44 each side). Denominator wrong but my message clear. And one that I live by. https://t.co/sQoP1Baudt
— Jake Steinberg (@Steiny31) December 21, 2016
Former Clemson standout Vic Beasley is a perfect example. The now-Falcons star was listed as a three-star athlete coming out of Adairsville High School in Georgia.
24/7 Sports pegged him as the No. 487 player in the country and No. 42 player in the state of Georgia.
It's safe to say Beasley exceeded those expectations.
I went to college as a 3 star ATH. Played TE then LB and finally DE. I also ran as scout team QB from time to time. https://t.co/NMpR1EUWOI
— Vic Beasley (@VicBeasley3) December 22, 2016
Stories similar to Beasley's are actually fairly common.
Let's take a look at some 2017 NFL Pro Bowlers, and where they were ranked coming out of high school.
NOTE: Future Hall of Famers below. This is amazing.
| Player | Pos | College | NFL Team | Pro Bowls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | California | Packers | 6 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | Mississippi State | Cowboys | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | Boston College | Falcons | 4 |
| Le'Veon Bell | RB | Michigan State | Steelers | 2 |
| Mike Evans | WR | Texas A&M | Buccaneers | 1 |
| Brandon Scherff | OL | Iowa | Redskins | 1 |
| David DeCastro | OL | Stanford | Steelers | 2 |
| Travis Frederick | OL | Wisconsin | Cowboys | 3 |
| Trent Williams | OL | Oklahoma | Redskins | 5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | Cincinnati | Chiefs | 2 |
| Casey Hayward | DB | Vanderbilt | Chargers | 1 |
| Devin McCourty | DB | Rutgers | Patriots | 2 |
| Marcus Peters | DB | Washington | Chiefs | 2 |
| Richard Sherman | DB | Stanford | Seahawks | 4 |
| Brian Orakpo | LB | Texas | Titans | 4 |
| Luke Kuechly | LB | Boston College | Panthers | 4 |
| Ryan Kerrigan | LB | Purdue | Redskins | 2 |
| Vic Beasley | LB | Clemson | Falcons | 1 |
| Von Miller | LB | Texas A&M | Broncos | 5 |
| Marshal Yanda | OL | Iowa | Ravens | 6 |
| Kelechi Osemele | OL | Iowa State | Raiders | 1 |
| Aaron Donald | DT | Pittsburgh | Rams | 3 |
| Geno Atkins | DT | Georgia | Bengals | 5 |
| Cliff Avril | DE | Purdue | Seahawks | 1 |
| Jurrell Casey | DE | USC | Titans | 2 |
| Justin Tucker | PK | Texas | Ravens | 2 |
| Player | Pos | College | NFL Team | Pro Bowls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | Florida International | Colts | 3 |
| Aquib Talib | CB | Kansas | Broncos | 4 |
| Khalil Mack | LB | Buffalo | Raiders | 2 |
| Bobby Wagner | LB | Utah State | Seahawks | 3 |
| T.J. Lang | OL | Eastern Michigan | Packers | 1 |
| Pat McAfee | P | West Virginia | Colts | 2 |
| Player | Pos | College | NFL Team | Pro Bowls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | QB | Michigan | Patriots | 12 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | Miami (OH) | Steelers | 5 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | Central Michigan | Steelers | 5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | FB | Harvard | Ravens | 1 |
| Mike Tolbert | FB | Coastal Carolina | Panthers | 3 |
| Delanie Walker | TE | Central Missouri | Titans | 2 |
| Donald Penn | OL | Utah State | Raiders | 2 |
| Chris Harris | CB | Kansas | Broncos | 3 |
| Lorenzo Alexander | LB | California | Bills | 2 |
| Thomas Davis | LB | Georgia | Panthers | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | DE | Texas A&M | Seahawks | 2 |
| David Johnson | RB | Northern Iowa | Cardinals | 1 |
| Matthew Slater | RS | UCLA | Patriots | 1 |
The Takeaways
Obviously there are so many notable names on these lists. The 3-star prospects aren't as surprising. It's probably tough to determine whether a kid coming out of high school is going to thrive as a NFL star, and a 3-star prospect is still one of the top 10% of recruits in the country.
The non-rated college recruits are really interesting. By this point, most sports fans are familiar with Tom Brady's story. He's a rare case of someone catching fire once they reach the NFL level. Antonio Brown? David Johnson? Those are fairly shocking. We could break these down for days but in the end, college football recruiting rankings are a nice tool to evaluate high school prospects, but they certainly aren't always accurate of a player's future potential.
