After those crazy final seconds of New England’s defeat in Miami this weekend, most fans have been asking themselves what exactly happened? Let’s be clear: this was not a game the Patriots should have lost, and Bill Belichick will be kicking himself to have lost the game in such ignominious fashion.
As a consequence of that 34-33 defeat to the Dolphins, the Patriots were cut in the latest NFL odds for Super Bowl LIII. 888sport, for example, pushed the Patriots back from around +600 to +700. Not a massive gap you might think, but enough to put the Patriots at some distance behind the three betting favorites: The Saints +325, the Rams +375 and the Chiefs +500.
The Patriots, of course, have been up and down all season, losing games they really should be winning, yet still coming up with big victories against teams like the Chiefs, the Bears and Texans. To be frank, the erratic nature of the team seems like anathema to the traits of the Belichick/Brady era and it’s really starting to cause the fans’ patience to wear a bit thin.
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Some will see Patriots’ odds as generous
From a betting perspective and when dealing with the pure numbers of the situation, the Patriots are still a very interesting candidate for the Super Bowl. In fact, once could argue that they a much more interesting prospect in terms of betting value than the other trio mentioned above.
First, it’s important to remember that the Patriots were the clear betting favorite for Super Bowl LIII at the start of the season. Their odds were somewhere around the +600 mark with sportsbooks before Week 1, while most of the perceived early rivals – the Rams, Eagles, Vikings – were +1000 or above. Therefore, the odds of New England’s three main competitors have dropped by at least 50 percent or more, whereas the Patriots’ odds have risen.
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Patriots’ home record impeccable
Now, this is of course happening because sportsbooks believe the Chiefs, Rams and Saints have done better than expected, whereas the Patriots’ performances and results have been poorer than most would have believed since the start of the regular season. However, while the Patriots have been erratic, they are still getting the job done. They will win the AFC East and likely go to Divisional Round as 2nd seed.
Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots are 6-0, is nothing short of a fortress, so a date for the AFC Conference Final is arguably more likely than not. When you break it down in that sense, +700 odds are quite generous for a team that is almost guaranteed to get at least a game or two away from the Super Bowl.
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The newest banner, right, commemorating the New England Patriots' Super Bowl 51 victory, joins the other four as it is unveiled at Gillette Stadium before an NFL football game between the Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday, Sept. 7, 2017, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)[/credit]
Indeed, it has to be remembered that at least one of the two teams with the lowest odds, the Rams and Saints, will be eliminated on route to Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on February 3rd. Either would be a decent pick for the Vince Lombardi trophy at those odds except for the fact they are two NFC teams that are so closely matched.
Look, it’s clear the Patriots have some problems to sort out. Defensive issues were clearly highlighted in Miami and, indeed, their record on the road (3-4) is not characteristic of a Super Bowl-winning team. But they were favorites at the start of the season for a reason and already have one foot deep into the postseason. If they can cut out the stupid errors, they may be a value bet for Super Bowl LIII.
