Reports surfaced a few weeks ago via Mike Lombardi that Seattle Seahawks All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman has been the subject of trade talk. Since that initial report, several ensuing reports suggest the team is indeed listening, though it's unclear the team has any genuine interest in trading Sherman.
As usual, however, the price dictates, at least to some extent.
That begs the question: What is Richard Sherman worth? What could the Seahawks get in return?
The Talent
Sherman is 29 and is coming off a down season. He may be done as one of the elite corners in the league but the team revealed after the 2016 season their star defensive back was dealing with an injury that certainly impacted his play. And it's not as if Sherman was bad.
Pro Football Focus rated Sherman the No. 13 corner in the NFL last season with an overall rating of 84.6. That's ahead of Patrick Peterson, Josh Norman and Jalen Ramsey and not far from Top-8 territory where Sherman typically lands.[divider]
The Contract
Sherman's contract can be viewed from two angels. He's signed through the 2018 season with cap numbers of $13.63 million and $13.2 million. A little more than $22 million of that is guaranteed.
Some teams may see the contract as a bonus; he's still a very good player, just turned 29 and has very little injury history to suggest he's fading physically at a sharp rate. Sherman has never missed a game.
And $13 million per year for a Top-15 corner is a bargain right now, behind five others who arguably aren't better than Sherman, such as Peterson, Norman, Trumaine Johnson and Joe Haden
| No. | Player | Team | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Norman | Washington | $20m |
| 2 | Trumaine Johnson | L.A. Rams | $16.742m |
| 3 | Janoris Jenkins | NY Giants | $15m |
| 4 | Joe Haden | Cleveland | $14.4m |
| 5 | Patrick Peterson | Arizona | $13.71m |
| 6 | Richard Sherman | Seattle | $13.63m |
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The Trade Value
This is tricky. Four years ago the New York Jets traded Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in exchange for pick No. 13 in 2013 and a conditional mid-round pick in 2014, which ended up a fourth rounder. At the time, Revis had just one year left on his deal and was 27 years old.
On the surface, this looks like it sets up Seattle to potentially grab at least a top-15 first-round pick and perhaps as much as a second or third to go with it. But Sherman is two years older now than Revis at the time, which is important because, per OvertheCap.com, only 23 corners 30 or older were employed in the league in 2016, and eight of those are currently without contracts for 2017.
Somewhat of an equalizer here may be Sherman's second year, as well as the dead money for 2018 being just over $2 million.
The Jets used pick 13 on DT Sheldon Richardson and the 2014 fourth-round pick — the fourth pick in the round and No. 104 overall — on WR Jalen Saunders out of Oklahoma.
It seems the value for Sherman may be similar to that of Revis back in 2013, but many clubs may be gunshy, particularly since this year's draft class is so deep in corners and deep overall. Translation: The value of No. 13 in 2017 is higher than it was four years ago.
Are we looking at a late first and a third or fourth for Sherman? Would any team trade their first-round pick along with another selection for two years of Sherman? (Dallas? New Orleans? Atlanta?)[divider]
At the End of the Day
As OTC's Jason Fitzgerald writes, the Seahawks do like to take risks. They moved center Max Unger and a first-round pick for Jimmy Graham. Seattle is a team that s starting to age a bit and could use an infusion of talent, particularly from this year's draft class.
Atlanta is an interesting idea, for two reasons. 1) Dan Quinn, Atlanta's head coach, knows Sherman well from his days as the Seahawks defensive coordinator and 2) The Falcons pick later in the draft — No. 31 — and as a contender themselves might value the proven player in this instance more than, say, picks 31 and 95 (Round 3).
Might. Might not.
With two first-round picks, the Seahawks could address both corner and offensive line in Round 1 and still add a solid pass rusher in Round 2, or flip that script and grab the OL and pass rusher early and take advantage of the deep cornerback market in Round 2.
Dealing Sherman also would clear up more than $9 million in cap space for this season, though the majority of the free agents worth spending cap dollars on have been signed.
Seattle, however, is also a team with the pieces to win another Super Bowl. Those odds take a significant hit if they move Sherman and their replacement — presumably a rookie corner — doesn't play well enough.
In the end, NFL trades are rare enough and for a Super Bowl contending team it's less likely they deal a player of Sherman's caliber. Bet on Sherman staying put, but if he's moved, look for Seattle to make sure the result is capitalizing on the draft class of 2017 in the form of multiple picks.
