Better men than me have tried (and failed) to take money from the wizards of Las Vegas. But with bowl season now in full swing, it’s time to identify a few games where there could be a little extra value built into the point spreads.
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Here are seven bowl games where public bettors could find value.
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Frisco Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs Southern Methodist (-4)
Wednesday, December 20, 8:00 p.m.
Southern Methodist is back in a bowl after a few horrific years, and the Mustangs are matched up against a .500 Conference USA with a pretty good defense. As good as LaTech’s defense is, SMU’s offense is better.
Should you worry about Chad Morris leaving to coach Arkansas? Maybe a little. But new coach Sonny Dykes is a good fit for what SMU has already been doing. Expect a hiccup or two, but not the tire fire Bulldog backers might be hoping for.
There’s some late line movement on this, with the line sinking down from five to four. Don’t let that scare you off. Eat the points. Ride the ponies.
Pick: Southern Methodist -4
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Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs South Florida (-2.5)
Saturday, December 23, 12 p.m.
This one is easy. South Florida is being undervalued because its opponent is a Power-5 school. USF ranks in the top ten in total offense; Texas Tech ranks 92nd in total defense and 98th in pass defense efficiency. The Red Raiders are improved on defense this year, but they’re still pretty bad.
This game is likely to be a shootout. With USF only needing to cover a small number, you can feel confident riding with the Bulls.
Pick: South Florida -2.5
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Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State vs Army (plus 6.5)
Saturday, December 23, 3:30 p.m.
Army has got to be feeling itself right about now. After 14 straight losses to Navy, the Black Knights now have a two-game winning streak, including this season’s snowy instant classic. They also won the Commander-in-Chief trophy for the first time since ‘96.
However, the party is probably over in the Armed Forces Bowl. Army, a one-dimensional run team, is tasked with finding a way to score on San Diego State’s Top-10 rushing defense.
Mix in 2,000-yard rusher Rashaad Penny from San Diego State, and this will be one of college football’s premiere bowl games for running the football. Unfortunately for Army, they’ll be on the wrong side of the scoreboard. I expect a double-digit win for the Aztecs.
Pick: San Diego State -6.5
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Quick Lane Bowl: Northern Illinois vs Duke (-5)
Tuesday, December 26, 5:15 p.m.
David Cutcliffe makes my short list for the ten best coaches in college football. 2017 has not been a vintage Cutcliffe team, though, best evidenced by a six-game losing streak that included a 28-21 loss to UVA and a 21-16 loss to Army. Yikes.
Yeah, this pick is less bout NIU and more about Duke's position as a favorite, but the Blue Devils are playing a Northern Illinois team that has a history of upsetting Power-5 schools. There's also the small matter of Duke dismissing its starting punter/place kicker for violation of the school’s academic policy.
I’m taking the Huskies plus the five; at 175, the real value here might even be on taking NIU as an outright winner.
Pick: Northern Illinois 5
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Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa vs Boston College (plus 2.5)
Wednesday, December 27, 5:15 p.m.
Both Iowa and BC have 7-5 records and are valued more for the depth they lend their conference than as actual championship contenders. Neither team is great, but both teams are solid.
However, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that that Boston College’s wins over schools like Louisville and Florida State don’t mean what we thought they meant when the games were first played. Iowa, on the other hand, appears to be a legitimate Top-40 team.
The Yankee Stadium crowd will probably favor BC, but ride with Iowa and the short number. The Hawkeyes are the better team.
Pick: Iowa -2.5
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Texas Bowl: Missouri vs Texas (plus 2.5)
Wednesday, December 27, 9 p.m.
This game might provide the two best bets of the entire bowl season. Texas fields the best defense in the Big 12 with a ball control offense. They’re catching points against a Missouri team that’s being overvalued because of a six-game winning streak.
Facts: Missouri was 1-5 in mid-October, before the Tigers rattled off consecutive wins against Idaho, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, border rival Arkansas, coachless Florida and the national tragedy that was the Tennessee Volunteers.
Missouri might be a decent team, but we sure wouldn’t know it from that slate of games. Roll with the Longhorns, and double down on the under. The total is floating around 61; this game might not hit 50.
Pick: Texas plus 2.5
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Outback Bowl: Michigan vs South Carolina (plus 7.5)
Monday, January 1, 12 p.m.
This is less of a numbers play and more of a trend call. Jim Harbaugh and Michigan have been good, but a tad overrated, over the last two seasons; the Wolverines are 11-13-1 against the number in that time period. South Carolina quietly finished as the No. 2 team in the SEC East, and I like them to cover, getting seven and the hook on New Year’s Day. Lots of value here.
Pick: South Carolina plus 7.5
