There are just four teams left in the survivor pool.
The Tennessee Titans made an epic late-season run to find themselves playing in the AFC Championship game. And the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will battle for the NFC title in a matchup that many of us have predicted since the middle of the season.
But who is favored to win it all on the Super Bowl betting odds boards?
Well, the Baltimore Ravens were heavy favorites to win Super Bowl LIV. But they are no longer in the mix so who has taken the top spot?
Here’s a hint: It isn’t the Tennessee Titans or the Green Bay Packers.
Mahomes and his merry men are the new futures odds favorites to stand tall as 2020 NFL champs. Here are the current odds:
- Kansas City Chiefs +135
- San Francisco 49ers +165
- Green Bay Packers +650
- Tennessee Titans +650
The odds also favor both the Chiefs and the 49ers heftily in the Championship games. Both opened as -7.5 favorites and since then, smart money on the Tennessee Titans has pushed the hook off the board and now the line is sitting at -7.
That said, the Packers-Niners line has not moved an inch. Green Bay remains 7.5-point underdogs in what I see as an extremely soft line. The public loves favorites and that’s why the line was set this way. The bookmakers knew that Joe Shmoe would see the Niners as big-time favs and hop all over it, thinking that San Fran is worthy of giving away more than a TD.
Why Green Bay Might Win the NFC Championship Game
I loved Tennessee at +7.5 but now that the hook is gone, there is no value. But giving Aaron Rodgers 7.5 points? I’ll take that all day long. The Packers have been getting ugly wins, which is why they are dogs. But, the Niners haven’t played all that pretty either. The thing is, the Packers have won six straight, which is something we can’t say about the Niners. They have done just enough on each occasion to get the job done.
The NFC Championship game is the type of clash that could very well come down to who has the ball last. Do I think the Packers should be favorites? No. They are on the road against a team that already smashed them in Levi Stadium. But the Packers were caught with sleepy eyes in that one and this is a different-ish squad … six straight. The Niners should be favorites but 3 or 3.5 point favorites … not 7.5
The Niners have the second-best scoring offense in the NFL at 29.8 per game and the No. 2 home offense at 31.8. The Packers are only putting up 23.8 per game and a couple of points worse on the road – 21.4. But over the last three, they’ve scored 24.7 and if you go back through their last 3 road games, they are at 25.6 per game. Then, the Niner’s last few home games are come to 27.6 points per game scored, so the offensive point differential is not as big as it looks at a quick glance.
But wait. There’s more …
On Defense San Fran is stout. They have the best passing defense in the league and the No. 5 scoring defense at 18.8 allowed per game. But over their last three, they’ve allowed 20.7 and their last three home games they’ve let teams run up the score to 23.33 per game. Let’s flip the script. The Packers are a top ten defense as well, but over their last three games, they’ve allowed just 17.7 per game. On top of this, their road defense has been stellar over the last few weeks. In Green Bay’s last three road games teams have been held to an average of 14.33 per game. OK …
Suddenly, when you look at recent performance instead of dry, season-long stats, the points margin favors the Packers. So, now you know. The Packers are live dogs in this fight.
Just some food for thought.
