I recently posted the full slate of week 1 college football odds and over-unders featuring 46 FBS matchups taking place between week 0 on August 25 and Labor Day evening on September 3. Now it's time to take a deeper dive — especially a few tantalizing week 1 matchups and under-the-radar gems.
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College football is back y'all. Let's have some fun.
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The Beginning: Wyoming -4 at New Mexico State
ESPN has been telling you that the 2018 season officially begins on Thursday, August 30. That's pretty interesting considering ESPN2 is showing college football on August 25. Then again, what do I know?
What my colleague Andrew Doughty does know is that the Wyoming-New Mexico State nighttime kickoff is one worth watching.
This line has felt odd to me since it first came out, and some sites have the Aggies winning by a field goal. As Doughty points out, the Cowboys may have the edge on defense, but they also have to replace the most heralded QB in school history in Josh Allen.
It appears redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal will take over the reigns, and if he has first-year jitters combined with a rushing attack that doesn't improve on last season's anemic 3.17-yards-per rush, then NMSU has a legit shot to win outright let alone cover the spread.
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College Football Begins Here Because ESPN Says So: Purdue -3.5 vs. Northwestern
Similar to how The Worldwide Leader in Sports began the first Thursday of FBS action with Indiana and Ohio State in 2017, the Boilermakers and Wildcats kickoff the 2018 Big Ten slate.
This line perplexes me. Northwestern has a legit chance to make serious noise in the West while Purdue could struggle as it did last year to attain bowl eligibility (and Ross-Ade Stadium isn't exactly the most intimidating venue in the conference).
The most likely reason for the spread? Will Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson be back from an ACL injury suffered in last year's Music City Bowl. If so, the four-year starter with over 7,500 yards passing and 44 touchdowns could once again slice and dice a defense he smoked last year for 296 yards passing and two TDs in a 23-13 win.
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Revenge is a Dish Best Served Cold: Stanford -14.5 vs. San Diego State
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AP Photo/Gregory Bull[/credit]
It wasn't so much that the #19 Cardinal lost 20-17 to the Aztecs last year as much as how it happened. The nine-point favorites were held to 80 yards passing, could muster just ten first downs to SDSU's 21, and possessed the ball for a lowly 18:46 to the Aztecs' 41:14.
Sure, Rashaad Penny was masterful in gashing the Cardinal defense for 175 yards on 32 carries, but what the stats don't show is how much more physical San Diego State was on both sides of that ball against a squad known for its hard-nosed ways.
While I like the Aztecs to finish near the top of the West Division of the MWC, this feels like a Palo Alto revenge game just waiting to happen with Heisman candidate Bryce Love eclipsing 200 yards.
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The Bama Theory Returns: Alabama -22.5 vs. Louisville (N)
I love me some Bama Theory, and I'm going to ride this bad boy all season long until the wheels fall off.
The Bama Theory is simple: The Tide rises and demolishes squads when the stakes are high or when they're playing rivals. When they return home to play teams typically from Group of 5 conferences, they don't cover.
2017 case in point: Saban's boys crush and cover against Florida State in the season opener only to defeat at home, but not cover, the following two weeks against Fresno State and Colorado State. Those non-covering affairs led to 59-0 and 66-3 slaughters of Vanderbilt and Ole Miss respectively.
Until they prove me otherwise, I say Roll Bama Theory Roll.
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Hold Your Horses: Minnesota -18 vs. New Mexico State; Navy -17 at Hawaii
Both New Mexico State and Hawaii see the field during week 0, so you may want to watch them in action first before messing with these week 1 lines.
Then again, the NCAA did the Aggies zero favors by scheduling them to play during week 0 and then not providing a full week off to travel all the way to face the Gophers the following Thursday. It'll be interesting to see if NMSU can cover the -17 with only four full days of rest.
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