After Sunday night's selection show, it seemed everyone was focused on one particular detail.
The women's lacrosse team at Stony Brook University, which has been the consensus No. 1 team for much of the season, was not given a top-4 seed by the NCAA selection committee. If seeding holds, fifth-seeded Stony Brook (19-0) will play at fourth-seeded Boston College in the national quarterfinals.
At surface value, the surprise seeding was reminiscent of Minnesota's regional snub during last season's NCAA Softball Selection Show.
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Heading into Sunday night, the general consensus was that five lacrosse teams had separated themselves from the rest of the field. Those five teams — presumptive No. 1 seed Maryland and ACC champion North Carolina, plus Stony Brook, James Madison and Boston College — were all in contention for the top four spots. The top four seeds are awarded the right to host up until the Final Four, which, ironically, will be played in Stony Brook, New York.
When the dust settled, it was the Seawolves that were shunned from the top 4, slotted as the No. 5 seed.
This seeding was a surprise for many collegiate lacrosse fans, as Stony Brook maintained a No. 1 spot atop multiple polls for most of the season. While much of bracket is being celebrated for its balance and inclusion of worthy first-time tournament teams, a great deal of the focus has been scrutiny at the top.
A day later, the question remains. Was Stony Brook snubbed?
Let’s take a look at the numbers.
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No. 1 Maryland
Record: 18-1
Polls: 3/2
RPI: 2
Record vs Tourney Teams: 12-1
Conference Championship: Yes
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No. 2 North Carolina
Record: 15-3
Polls: 5/5
RPI: 1
Record vs Tourney Teams: 9-3
Conference Championship: Yes
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No. 3 James Madison
Record: 18-1
Polls: 4/4
RPI: 4
Record vs Tourney Teams: 8-1
Conference Championship: Yes
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No. 4 Boston College
Record: 19-1
Polls: 2/3
RPI: 3
Record vs Tourney Teams: 5-1
Conference Championship: No
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No. 5 Stony Brook
Record: 19-0
Polls: 1/1
RPI: 6
Record vs Tourney Teams: 6-0
Conference Championship: Yes
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No. 6 Florida
Record: 16-3
Polls: 9/8
RPI: 5
Record vs Tourney Teams: 8-3
Conference Championship: Yes
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From this data, it seems that the strongest indicator of seeding at the top was a team’s record against other tournament teams. It’s almost a straight linear pattern from the top down: Maryland won 12 of 13; North Carolina won 9 of 12; Madison won 8 of 9. Predictably, things get stickier when you consider Boston College and Stony Brook both played six apiece, with the Seawolves winning all six and the Eagles winning five.
I imagine the committee is prepared to argue that Boston College was undefeated until very recently, when it lost in the ACC tournament championship game to North Carolina. Clearly, the major difference between profiles is Boston College’s ACC Schedule (Average Opponent RPI: 23) held up against Stony Brook’s America East Schedule (Average Opponent RPI: 80).
Bottom line? The résumé differences between Stony Brook and Boston College are so paper-thin that either team would be a defensible selection for the No. 4 seed. Despite what the polls might say, it’s hard to sell Stony Brook’s No. 5 seed as an outright snub. If anyone has a right to complain here, it’s a No. 6 Florida team with more marquee wins than both of the two teams seeded immediately above it.
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Other Observations
- Stony Brook got a little unlucky with how some of its non-conference opponents turned out, but it still could have been more aggressive in its scheduling. Replacing a CAA opponent like Delaware with a nearby ACC school like Syracuse might be the extra bump it could have needed to pass BC.
- Albany, the America East’s second-best team, did not come close to making this bracket as an at-large selection. Its RPI was 48.
- The DMV nabbed 10 of the 27 teams in the field, including four of the top eight seeds.
- For the second straight year, all eight seeded teams are from the Eastern Time Zone. Before last year’s tournament, there was at least one seeded team from beyond the east coast, dating back to the 2005 reorganization of the tournament field.
- CAA Rising? For the majority of the last 15 years, the CAA has mostly been a one-team league, with either Towson or James Madison seizing the conference’s automatic bid. However, in recent years, Madison and Towson have put together a nice run, with both teams qualifying for the tournament each of the previous three seasons. This year, both teams received seeds for the first time in over five years (Towson received a No. 8 seed in 2012; JMU received a No. 8 seed in 2011), and Madison received the conference’s highest seed since the Dukes went into the 2000 tournament as the No. 3 seed. The CAA hasn't had multiple seeded teams under its current membership structure.
- The University of Maryland is a rightful pod leader for its section of the bracket — four of the seven teams are from Maryland schools.
- The Pac-12 only has two schools in the NCAA tournament — Stanford and Colorado — and they’re both in the same quarter of the bracket. However, they wouldn’t be able to meet until the second weekend of the tournament. Both would need to upset seeded teams.
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