It's been seven seasons since the 2010 NFL Draft, which is more than enough time to look back and assess the first-round picks with 20-20 hindsight.
Here is a re-do of that draft, based solely on Pro Football Reference's Career Approximate Value (AV) metric.
2012 NFL Re-Draft: Wilson over Luck? | 2013 NFL Re-Draft:Le'Veon Bell No. 1 2014 NFL Re-Draft: Where's Derek Carr Land? | 2011 NFL Re-Draft: Newton Still No. 1?
AV's methodology is explained by Doug Drinen here.
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| NO. | TEAM | PLAYER (AV) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis | Sam Bradford, QB (42) |
| 2 | Detroit | Ndamukong Suh, DT (74) |
| 3 | Tampa Bay | Gerald McCoy, DT (54) |
| 4 | Washington | Trent Williams, OT (57) |
| 5 | Kansas City | Eric Berry, S (48) |
| 6 | Seattle | Russell Okung, OT (41) |
| 7 | Cleveland | Joe Haden, CB (40) |
| 8 | Oakland | Rolando McClain, LB (26) |
| 9 | Buffalo | C.J. Spiller, RB (34) |
| 10 | Jacksonville | Tyson Alualu, DT (35) |
| 11 | San Francisco | Anthony Davis, OT (31) |
| 12 | San Diego | Ryan Mathews, RB (43) |
| 13 | Philadelphia | Brandon Graham, DE (26) |
| 15 | Seattle | Earl Thomas, S (64) |
| 16 | Tennessee | Jason Pierre-Paul, DE (47) |
| 17 | San Francisco | Derrick Morgan, DE (31) |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | Maurkice Pouncey, C (55) |
| 19 | Atlanta | Sean Witherspoon, LB (22) |
| 20 | Houston | Kareem Jackson, CB (33) |
| 21 | Cincinnati | Jermaine Gresham, TE (26) |
| 22 | Denver | Demaryius Thomas, WR (59) |
| 23 | Green Bay | Bryan Bulaga, OT (43) |
| 24 | Dallas | Dez Bryant, WR (56) |
| 25 | Denver | Tim Tebow, QB (12) |
| 26 | Arizona | Dan Williams, DT (32) |
| 27 | New England | Devin McCourty, S (47) |
| 28 | Miami | Jared Odrick, DE (29) |
| 29 | NY Jets | Kyle Wilson, CB (15) |
| 30 | Detroit | Jahvid Best, RB (13) |
| 31 | Indianapolis | Jerry Hughes, DE (30) |
| 32 | New Orleans | Patrick Robinson, CB (18) |
| NO. | TEAM | PLAYER (AV-Original Pick) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis | Ndamukong Suh, DT (74-2) |
| 2 | Detroit | Antonio Brown, WR (69-195) |
| 3 | Tampa Bay | Geno Atkins, DT (69-120) |
| 4 | Washington | Earl Thomas, S (64-14) |
| 5 | Kansas City | NaVorro Bowman, LB (63-91) |
| 6 | Seattle | Demaryius Thomas, WR (59-22) |
| 7 | Cleveland | Mike Iuapati, OG (58-17) |
| 8 | Oakland | Trent Williams, OT (57-4) |
| 9 | Buffalo | Dez Bryant, WR (56-24) |
| 10 | Jacksonville | Rob Gronkowski, TE (56-42) |
| 11 | San Francisco | Maurkice Pouncey, C (55-18) |
| 12 | San Diego | Gerald McCoy, DT (54-3) |
| 13 | Philadelphia | Jimmy Graham, TE (50-95) |
| 15 | Seattle | Eric Berry, S (48-5) |
| 16 | Tennessee | Jason Pierre-Paul, DE (47-15) |
| 17 | San Francisco | Devin McCourty, S (47-27) |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | Zane Beadles, OG (47-45) |
| 19 | Atlanta | Carlos Dunlap, DE (46-54) |
| 20 | Houston | Golden Tate, WR (44-60) |
| 21 | Cincinnati | Ryan Mathews, RB (43-12) |
| 22 | Denver | Bryan Bulaga, OT (43-23) |
| 23 | Green Bay | Kam Chancellor, S (43-133) |
| 24 | Dallas | Eric Decker, WR (43-87) |
| 25 | Denver | Linval Joseph, DT (42-46) |
| 26 | Arizona | Sam Bradford, QB (42-1) |
| 27 | New England | Emmanual Sanders, WR (42-82) |
| 28 | Miami | Russell Okung, OT (41-55) |
| 29 | NY Jets | Sean Lee, LB (41-55) |
| 30 | Detroit | Joe Haden, CB (40-7) |
| 31 | Indianapolis | Jared Veldheer, OT (40-69) |
| 32 | New Orleans | Brandon LaFell, WR (39-78) |
The results of this re-draft certainly changes the results of future drafts, starting right at the top where the Rams land Suh. In 2014, the Rams selected Aaron Donald. Might they have ventured for a quarterback, instead?
The Lions already had Calvin Johnson and may have opted for Geno Atkins instead, using our hindsight goggles. Such a pick makes a lot of sense since DT was of great need for the Lions, hence their selection of Suh.
Tampa gets Atkins here but likely go for Brown or Thomas, or perhaps Bowman, whose Career AV still ranks this high despite missing a lot of time.
Seattle ends up with the other Thomas here, Demaryius, though even using hindsight John Schneider and Pete Carroll probably pass on the receiver and snag left tackle Trent Williams.
The Jaguars land a gem in Gronkowski, one of the greatest tight ends ever to play. Bradford falls all the way Arizona at No. 26.
The Seahawks, by the way, landed four players in 2010 that ended up Top-28 in the class, one of them Chancellor in Round 5. Chancellor goes to Green Bay in the re-draft. What might Dom Capers do with a player like Kam?
Denver had two first-round selection in 2010, using the second one on Tim Tebow. In the re-draft they get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Linval Joseph. Tebow has the lowest Career AV of any first-round pick in 2010.
