The 2012 NFL Draft was highlighted by two top QBs, one a can't-miss in the same breath as Peyton Manning 14 years earlier and another with the physical skills to re-define the position and win MVP awards along the way.
Neither ended uop the most valuable quarterback in the class after five seasons, nor has either been among the top 3 players in the class since draft day.
For re-draft selections, we'll use Pro Football Reference's Career Approximate Value, depicted below as 'AV.'
AV is explained by Doug Drinen here.
|1||Indianapolis||Andrew Luck, QB (59)|
|2||Washington||Robert Griffin III, QB (32)|
|3||Cleveland||Trent Richardson, RB (17)|
|4||Minnesota||Matt Kalil, OT (32)|
|5||Jacksonville||Justin Blackmon, WR (9)|
|6||Dallas||Morris Claiborne, CB (15)|
|7||Tampa Bay||Mark Barron, S (24)|
|8||Miami||Ryan Tannehill, QB (50)|
|9||Carolina||Luke Kuechly, LB (61)|
|10||Buffalo||Stephon Gilmore, CB (26)|
|11||Kansas City||Dontari Poe, DT (41)|
|12||Philadelphia||Fletcher Cox, DT (44)|
|13||Arizona||Michael Floyd, WR (27)|
|14||St. Louis||Michael Brockers, DT (33)|
|15||Seattle||Bruce Irvin, DE (29)|
|16||NY Jets||Quinton Coples, DE (20)|
|17||Cincinnati||Dre Kirkpatrick, CB (18)|
|18||San Diego||Melvin Ingram, DE (21)|
|19||Chicago||Shea McClellin, DE (17)|
|20||Tennessee||Kendall Wright, WR (24)|
|21||New England||Chandler Jones, DE (39)|
|22||Cleveland||Brandon Weeden, QB (14)|
|23||Detroit||Riley Reiff, OT (33)|
|24||Pittsburgh||David DeCastro, OG (39)|
|25||New England||Dont'a Hightower, LB (38)|
|26||Houston||Whitney Mercilus, DE (35)|
|27||Cincinnati||Kevin Zeitler, OG (29)|
|28||Green Bay||Nick Perry, DE (15)|
|29||Minnesota||Harrison Smith, S (30)|
|30||San Francisco||A.J. Jenkins, WR (2)|
|31||Tampa Bay||Doug Martin, RB (33)|
|32||NY Giants||David Wilson, RB (5)|
Below is a re-draft, solely based on AV. In the PLAYER column, AV and the player's original draft slot is listed (AV-Original Pick).
|NO.||TEAM||PLAYER (AV-ORIGINAL PICK)|
|1||Indianapolis||Russell Wilson, QB (76-75)|
|2||Washington||Luke Kuechly, LB (61-9)|
|3||Cleveland||Bobby Wagner, LB (60-47)|
|4||Minnesota||Andrew Luck, QB (59-1)|
|5||Jacksonville||Ryan Tannehill, QB (50-8)|
|6||Dallas||T.Y. Hilton, WR (48-92)|
|7||Tampa Bay||Lavonte David, LB (47-58)|
|8||Miami||Fletcher Cox, DT (44-12)|
|9||Carolina||Dontari Poe, DT (41-11)|
|10||Buffalo||Chandler Jones, DE (39-21)|
|11||Kansas City||David DeCastro, OG (39-24)|
|12||Philadelphia||Dont'a Hightower, LB (38-25)|
|13||Arizona||Janoris Jenkins, CB (36-39)|
|14||St. Louis||Alshon Jeffrey, WR (36-45)|
|15||Seattle||Olivier Vernon, LB (36-72)|
|16||NY Jets||Robert Griffin, QB (35-2)|
|17||Cincinnati||Whitney Mercilus, DE (35-26)|
|18||San Diego||Demario Davis, LB (34-77)|
|19||Chicago||Michael Brockers, DT (33-14)|
|20||Tennessee||Riley Reiff, OT (33-23)|
|21||New England||Doug Martin, RB (33-31)|
|22||Cleveland||Cordy Glenn, OG (33-41)|
|23||Detroit||Kelechi Osemele, OT (33-60)|
|24||Pittsburgh||Matt Kalil, OT (32-4)|
|25||New England||Derek Wolfe, DT (32-36)|
|26||Houston||Mitchell Schwartz, OT (31-37)|
|27||Cincinnati||Harrison Smith, S (30-29)|
|28||Green Bay||Lamar Miller, RB (30-97)|
|29||Minnesota||Kirk Cousins, QB (30-102)|
|30||San Francisco||Alfred Morris, RB (30-173)|
|31||Tampa Bay||Bruce Irvin, DE (29-15)|
|32||NY Giants||Kevin Zeitler, OG (29-27)|
One can certainly make the argument the Colts would stock with their pick at No. 1 despite the rather wide discrepancy between Wilson and Luck to this point, thanks to the upside play left in Luck's game. There's zero doubt, however, Wilson goes in the Top 2, with Washington essentially swapping Griffin for Wilson in the re-draft.
Luck falls to No. 4 in the AV-based re-draft, but also doesn't get beyond Washington in hindsight.
How different might things be in Cleveland if the Browns had drafted Luck or Wilson, or even Tannehill or Cousins?
The Jaguars land Tannehill here, eliminating the need to draft Blake Bortles in 2014, which allows them the shot to take Kahlil Mack, Zack Martin or Aaron Donald, and perhaps saving the job of Gus Bradley.
Dallas may not pass on a defensive player here at No. 6 for a slot receiver in Hilton, suggesting David may be the preferred route. Seattle lands Vernon, rather than Irvin here, which might impact their need to go out and get both Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril via free agency after the 2012 season.
The Jets land Griffin in this scenario, begging the question of whether they would have protected Griffin and if so whether or not that would have staved off some of the long-term impact of his injuries.
Tennessee getting Reiff in '12 likely alters their 2014 or 2016 first-round picks where they landed starting tackles. In '14, they could have gone with Odell Beckham or Aaron Donald instead. In '16, rather than Jack Conklin at No. 8, Michael Thomas or Ryan Kelly may have been the target.
The Patriots land Doug Martin and Wolfe in the re-draft, but one has to wonder if they would use hindsight to select Glenn or Osemele at No. 21 and safety Harrison Smith at No. 25. Smith's AV of 30 is negatively impacted by time missed. He's one of the best safeties in the NFL.
Do the Packers take a running back at No. 28? Perhaps, but a pass rusher such as Bruce Irvin may have made more sense.
The Vikings land Cousins, which fits if they don't 'Luck' out as suggested in the AV-based re-draft. Getting either QB here changes their 2014 Draft strategy when they selected Teddy Bridgewater with a pick they acquired from Seattle.