The chase for an FCS national championship begins this weekend in the first round of the 24-team bracket.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 109-34
2023 Record: 96-42
FCS Playoffs First-Round Predictions
#12 Illinois State at SEMO
Two teams trending in different directions. Illinois State, after two humbling blowout home losses to NDSU and Missouri State in three weeks, has won five straight entering the postseason. SEMO, once ranked in the Top 10, has lost two of its last three. And between those two losses was a 9-point win over a struggling Western Illinois team.
But an interesting twist in this game is the seeded team won’t host, as high school state championships will be held at ISU’s stadium.
Familiar names lead SEMO’s units. Paxton DeLaurent has thrown for 3,520 yards (No. 5 in the FCS), 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The Redhawks rely on his arm, as they average 301.7 passing yards per game to just 98.2 rushing yards per game. It’s a concern for Illinois State, which allows 229.8 passing yards per game to rank No. 82 in the FCS.
Bryce Norman leads the SEMO defense with his 125 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, six QB hurries, and four pass breakups. SEMO will need to stop the run, and it owns the No. 20 FCS rushing defense, allowing about 115 yards per game.
ISU’s Wenkers Wright has stepped up after All-American RB Mason King went down with an early season-ending injury. Wright has rushed for 1,035 yards and 10 touchdowns, while quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse adds some dual-threat abilities with 424 yards and eight scores on the ground. Rittenhouse is completing 67% of his passes for 2,330 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Illinois State’s momentum carries into the postseason for a first-round win as it owns the time of possession in this one.
Prediction: Illinois State 31-27
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CCSU at #10 Rhode Island
CCSU got into the playoffs at 7-5 after a thrilling 21-14 win over No. 19 Duquesne to earn the NEC auto-bid. The Blue Devils have won four straight.
Rhody, meanwhile, is 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with the lone loss coming against Delaware. The Rams have been without starting QB Devin Farrell for the last two games after he got dinged up in the Delaware loss. This season, he’s thrown for 1,670 yards, 11 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Hunter Helms, a Clemson transfer, has stepped in and thrown for 248 yards vs. UAlbany and 209 yards vs. Bryant.
Rhody wants to establish the run first, though, behind the legs of Malik Grant, a former FCS All-American at Sacred Heart. Grant is once again over 1,000 yards rushing, totaling 1,167 yards and 13 scores on the ground.
CCSU’s offense, which is averaging just 24.9 PPG, will run into a tough Rhode Island defense led by A.J. Pena and his 70 tackles, 18 TFLs, and 10.5 sacks.
Prediction: Rhody 35-17
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UT Martin at #16 New Hampshire
Two of the better front sevens in the FCS are featured in this one.
UT Martin’s FCS run defense ranks No. 10 on PFF while its pass rush is ranked No. 14. UNH owns the No. 17 PFF rush defense.
UT Martin allows just 87.6 rushing yards per game (No. 5 in the FCS), led by 75 tackles from both Jaylon Sharpe and Tevin Shipp. Sharpe also has 14.5 tackles for loss. The good news for UNH is it doesn’t want to run the ball much anyway, averaging just 89.3 rushing yards per game compared to 214.8 passing yards a game.
Seth Morgan, a former standout at VMI, has thrown for 2,311 yards, 22 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Logan Tomlinson leads UNH with 810 receiving yards and nine scores.
UT Martin is led by Kinkead Dent’s 2,092 passing yards, 19 TDs, and seven interceptions, plus Patrick Smith’s 1,123 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Wande Owens and Ryan Toscano are both over 100 tackles for UNH’s defense, and Josiah Silver is still one of the most dangerous edge players in the FCS with his 58 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, and 11.5 sacks.
UNH pulls out a close home win in what looks to be one of the closer first-round games.
Prediction: New Hampshire 24-21
Lehigh at #9 Richmond
Richmond is rolling into the playoffs, winning 10 straight after an 0-2 start and a questionable FCS loss to Wofford. The Spiders had a strong argument for a first-round bye. Despite not owning any currently-ranked wins, Richmond gave Delaware its first loss of the season (28-9) in mid-October, and it beat playoff-hopeful William & Mary 27-0 last week.
Lehigh earned the Patriot League auto-bid, finishing 8-3 overall and 5-1 in conference play, winning five consecutive games entering postseason play. Mike DeNucci continues to be a standout on the defense and looks to be a three-time All-Conference player. He has 80 tackles, 10 TFLs, and 5.5 sacks this season. Offensively, Lehigh likes to get things rolling on the ground. The Mountain Hawks are enjoying the two-headed youngster monster of Luke Yoder (sophomore, 888 yards, 10 TDs) and Jaden Green (freshman, 693 yards, 9 TDs).
It’ll be tough sledding against this Richmond defense, though. The Spiders allow just 127.4 rushing yards per game, and they rank No. 21 in FCS rush defense on PFF. Jeremiah Grant is as good as it gets on the d-line in the FCS, totaling 45 tackles, 16.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks, and six quarterback hurries.
On offense, the Spiders aren’t lighting up the scoreboard, scoring an OK 28.1 points per game. But the balance and talent are there. Zach Palmer-Smith has rushed for 1,275 yards and 13 touchdowns. Camden Coleman has 1,832 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Nick DeGennaro is one of the top FCS wide receivers beyond his number (40 catches, 576 yards, 4 TDs), but he has missed the last couple of games.
Richmond could be a dangerous squad in the bracket, and it starts with a convincing first-round win.
Prediction: Richmond 31-14
Eastern Kentucky at #11 Villanova
EKU rolls into the postseason on a five-game winning streak and an 8-4 record (8-2 vs. the FCS). The Colonels beat back-to-back ranked opponents (Tarleton State and Central Arkansas) to springboard themselves into a playoff bid. However, a 30-27 overtime win over Austin Peay and a 21-15 victory over North Alabama in the last two weeks makes one wonder just how much of a threat EKU will be in the bracket.
Especially against a Villanova team that defeated rival and rankable Delaware, 38-28. The Wildcats jumped out to a 21-0 lead, Delaware then climbed back to tie it 28-28, but Villanova ended the game strong for the W.
EKU isn’t as explosive offensively as we’re used to seeing, averaging 22.8 points per game. Matt Morrissey has thrown for 2,013 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Joshua Carter can get it done on the ground, though, rushing for 1,106 yards and 13 scores. Villanova will be a tough opponent to establish the run on, led by stout linebackers Shane Hartzell and Brendan Bell.
Offensively for Nova, Connor Watkins is a veteran signal-caller who can make a defense hurt with his arm or legs. He has thrown for 1,822 yards, 11 TDs, and three interceptions while rushing for 395 yards and eight touchdowns.
Villanova gets it done at home in a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Villanova 27-17
Drake at #13 Tarleton State
The Pioneer Football League auto-bid hasn’t been competitive in the playoffs since San Diego won a couple of first-round games in the mid-2010s. Drake may be stronger than some past champs, as evident by its September 35-32 win at Eastern Washington, a team that pushed top Big Sky programs this fall.
The Bulldogs are 8-2 overall and finished 7-1 in PFL play. Finn Claypool has continued his standout career, totaling 42 tackles, 16.5 TFLs, nine sacks, and nine quarterback hurries this season.
On the other sideline, Tarleton has reached the postseason in its first year of eligibility after transitioning from D2. The Texans are 9-3 and bring some offensive explosiveness to the bracket. Kayvon Britten’s 1,750 rushing yards are second in the FCS, and he has 16 touchdowns on the ground. Darius Cooper is a stud on the outside, totaling 1,099 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
Too much Tarleton talent in this one as the Texans pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Tarleton State 41-21
Northern Arizona at #15 Abilene Christian
ACU won three tight ball games to secure the UAC auto-bid, beating Southern Utah by three, Austin Peay by one, and ranked Tarleton State by four. The Wildcats did lose 32-19 at SFA, a Southland member, to end the regular season at 8-4.
NAU has won five straight to get into the bracket at 8-4. A common opponent between the two is Northern Colorado, who ACU beat 24-22 in September and NAU beat 44-3 in November.
Abilene Christian has one of the top QBs in the FCS. Maverick McIvor has thrown for 3,675 yards, 29 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His top two targets, Blayne Taylor and Nehemiah Martinez I, are both over 900 receiving yards. But ACU is dangerous on the ground too, as Sam Hicks is just over 1,000 yards rushing with 11 touchdowns.
NAU does have a talented secondary and ranks as the No. 11 FCS coverage unit on PFF. The Lumberjacks allow just 132.3 rushing yards per game, 171.1 passing yards per game (No. 15 in the FCS), and 18.3 points per game (No. 11). Tommy Ellis and Alex McLaughlin are stars. Ellis leads NAU with 94 tackles, and McLaughlin has 85 stops, six TFLs, one interception, and four pass breakups.
NAU’s defense travels well and gets a big stop late for a win.
Prediction: Northern Arizona 35-28
Tennessee State at #14 Montana
A night game in Missoula could spell trouble for Tennessee State. While the Thanksgiving weekend crowd may be a bit lighter than normal, Washington-Grizzly Stadium is still the toughest place to play in the FCS.
The Tigers enter the bracket 9-3, and Montana is 8-4.
Montana’s defense has improved throughout the season. But offensively, the Grizzlies have had an up-and-down year. They’ll have to contend with a talented front seven led by Eriq George, Ahmad Nelson, and Sanders Ellis. The Tigers allow just 139.2 rushing yards per game compared to 195.7 passing yards a game. That’s where QB Logan Fife and his talented group of pass-catchers can make their money on Saturday. If Montana opens up the passing game, that’ll free up the box for standout RB Eli Gillman.
The crowd noise and Montana’s defensive improvements will make it tough on Tennessee State’s offense. Draylen Ellis has thrown for 2,733 yards, 22 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. And he is mobile. However, the aggressive Montana defense and Tennessee State’s offensive line, which ranks No. 68 in pass-blocking on PFF, is not a good combination.
A tight ball game early, but the Griz pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Montana 35-21
