#8 seed Idaho (10-3) travels to #1 seed Montana State (13-0) in the FCS quarterfinals.
MSU is a 10.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 55.5. Kickoff is 8 p.m. CT on Friday, Dec. 13, and it’ll air on ESPN.
It’s a rematch from mid-October, where the Bobcats beat Idaho 38-7 in Bozeman.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
When Idaho Has The Ball…
The Vandals have enjoyed the return of Week 1 starting quarterback Jack Layne, a cool customer as a 6-foot-2 sophomore. He broke his collarbone in Week 1 at Oregon and returned to action on Oct. 26 vs. Eastern Washington, a couple of weeks after Idaho got thumped at Montana State 38-7.
Layne missed the following game with a minor injury after his return against EWU, but he’s been fully back for the last three contests. Layne threw for 283 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception vs. Weber State. He had 229 yards and three touchdowns at Idaho State. And last week in the second round vs. Lehigh, he finished with 318 passing yards and three more scores.
His ability to process a defense and work through his progressions has been impressive for a guy still with limited college snaps.
Two young playmakers have emerged on the outside for Idaho. Sophomore Jordan Dwyer has 67 catches for 1,003 yards and 10 touchdowns. Freshman Mark Hamper has 47 receptions for 950 yards and six TDs. The next leading pass-catcher has 203 yards. They’ll go up against a Montana State secondary that allows 181 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 25 in the FCS. MSU’s PFF coverage grade ranks No. 47 in the subdivision.
The MSU secondary is led by safety Rylan Ortt (70 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 INT) and cornerback Andrew Powdrell (37 tackles, 2 TFLs, 7 pass breakups), two All-Big Sky players.
Idaho’s backfield has been a revolving door due to injury. Nate Thomas leads the team with 542 yards and five TDs in 10 games, last playing on Nov. 23. Elisha Cummings has 497 yards and one score in nine games. He missed all of November but returned last week and had seven carries for 21 yards. Deshaun Buchanan has stepped into a bigger role down the stretch, totaling 472 yards and five TDs. He ran for 212 yards in early November at Portland State, and he led Idaho with 15 rushes for 42 yards last week vs. Lehigh.
MSU has stifled the run this year, allowing just 112.2 rushing yards per game to rank No. 14 in the FCS. DE Brody Grebe (33 tackles, 9 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, 8 QB hurries), DT Paul Brott (36 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3 sacks), and DE Kenneth Eiden IV (21 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 6 sacks, 4 QB hurries) are All-Conference selections this year, as is LB McCade O’Reilly (61 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 6 QB hurries, 3 pass breakups).
Idaho’s o-line, led by All-Big Sky First Teamer Ayden Knapik (6’6″ 295 lbs), is still developing to get to a championship level. The Vandals rank No. 73 in FCS run-blocking on PFF and No. 58 in pass-blocking. MSU has racked up 31 sacks this fall and has the No. 11 PFF pass-rush grade.
While MSU’s offense gets plenty of attention, the Cats also own the No. 6 FCS scoring defense (17.0 PPG).
RELATED: Odds To Win The FCS National Championship
When Montana State Has The Ball…
Montana State’s offense is a juggernaut.
The Bobcats are No. 1 in FCS scoring offense (41.3 PPG), No. 1 in total offense (496.5 YPG), No. 2 in rushing offense (308.9 YPG), No. 2 in PFF overall offense, No. 6 in PFF passing offense, No. 2 in PFF rushing offense, and No. 3 in PFF run-blocking.
It starts with quarterback Tommy Mellott, the No. 1-graded PFF quarterback in all of D1 football who is in a tight race for the Walter Payton Award. Previously known as a running quarterback, Mellott has proven his legit arm this season, completing 70.5% of his passes for 2,256 yards, 26 touchdowns, and one interception. Mellott averaged 9.4 rushing attempts per game last season compared to 6.0 this fall. He is still doing damage with his legs, though, despite the lighter load. Mellott is averaging 8.4 yards per carry, totaling 659 yards and 11 touchdowns.
It also starts with the offensive line, arguably the best in the FCS. Marcus Wehr (6’4″ 300 lbs) and Conner Moore (6’5″ 310 lbs) are First Team All-Big Sky selections and future pros, while Titan Fleischmann (6’4″ 300 lbs) and Cole Sain (6’4″ 300 lbs) received Second Team honors.
They’ll go up against an Idaho defensive line with great talent and depth. The Vandals are healthier on the d-line compared to the October matchup at MSU, where it looked to be running on fumes. MSU’s o-line is also just that good as the Cats rushed for 360 yards.
DE Keyshawn James-Newby (58 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 10.5 sacks, 13 QB hurries) and DT Dallas Afalava (30 tackles, 7 TFLs, 4 sacks, 8 QB hurries) are First Team All-Big Sky performers. DE Malakai Williams earned Honorable Mention accolades with 34 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, and 6.5 sacks. Idaho’s PFF pass-rush grade ranks No. 7 in the FCS.
Jahkari Larmond (6’2″ 315 lbs) and Aamarii Notice (6’3″ 285 lbs) are run-stuffers in the middle, eating up blocks to let Idaho’s young and athletic linebackers move freely. Jaxton Eck (121 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) is a First Team All-Big Sky selection, and Isiah King (46 tackles, 2.5 TFLs) and Zach Johnson (81 tackles, 6.5 TFLs) were Honorable Mention. First Team safety Tommy McCormick is second on the team with 99 tackles with a team-high three interceptions. First Team cornerback Andrew Marshall has 46 tackles and three pass breakups.
Idaho allows 22.9 points per game (No. 34 in the FCS) and 131.1 rushing yards per game (No. 31).
Along with Mellott, the Vandals are tasked with defending the two-headed running back monster of Scottre Humphrey (7.5 YPC, 1,325 yards, 14 TDs) and Adam Jones (7.4 YPC, 973 yards, 10 TDs). Humphrey is just a sophomore, and Jones is a freshman.
MSU’s passing attack, meanwhile, is coming off of its best game in recent memory. Mellott finished 22/25 for 300 yards and four touchdowns vs. UT Martin. The Cats spread the wealth with three pass-catchers over 400 yards. TE Rohan Jones, who is questionable this week, has 451 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, WR Ty McCullouch has 445 yards and five TDs, and WR Taco Dowler has 437 yards and eight scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42
Idaho-Montana State Prediction
MSU ran roughshod over Idaho two months ago. It was a 38-7 final, but it could have been even worse. The Cats led 31-0 early in the third quarter, and Idaho didn’t get its first points until there were 43 seconds left in the game.
As Idaho head coach Jason Eck put it this week, “We are going to have to play a perfect game to pull this off.”
Playing a perfect game against this MSU team in front of this frenzied MSU fan base and sold-out crowd will be dang near impossible.
The Cats have been locked in all season. While they have the 1-0 mentality, give em truth serum and they’ll admit that they know this is the best chance for this program to win a national title in decades. Many of these seniors were big parts of the 2021 run to a national title game appearance and the 2022 semifinal run as freshmen and sophomores. They then experienced one of the biggest letdown seasons in 2023, exiting the playoffs in the second round in excruciating fashion, having the dynasty NDSU program on the ropes before losing on a blocked PAT.
One could argue how last season ended lit a match under this MSU program to fulfill its potential this year.
Idaho is healthier this time around. Layne is back, and the strong d-line is fresher. But it’s hard to see any team going into Bozeman and stopping this MSU team from getting back to Frisco.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
