#5 seed UC Davis (11-2) travels to #4 seed South Dakota (10-2) in the FCS quarterfinals.
South Dakota is a 6.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 55.5. Kickoff is 2 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 14, and it’ll air on ESPN+.
It’s the closest spread of the four quarterfinal games. Here are some names and numbers to know, and a score prediction as well.
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When UC Davis Has The Ball…
UC Davis has as good of a QB-RB duo as anyone in the FCS.
Quarterback Miles Hastings finished No. 7 in Walter Payton Award voting, and running back Lan Larison finished No. 5. Like a few other guys in the FCS, they both had strong arguments to be among the Top 3 invited to the awards ceremony.
Hastings is completing 69.9% of his passes (328/469) for 4,148 yards, 35 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He now leads the FCS in passing yards, and his 165.4 passing efficiency ranks No. 6 in the subdivision.
Larison leads the FCS with his 2,323 all-purpose yards and 178.7 all-purpose yards per game. He averages 5.1 yards per carry, totaling 1,425 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Larison also leads UC Davis with 61 catches for 842 yards and six touchdowns.
As Larison gets plenty of touches, Hastings still spreads the ball around well. Samuel Gbatu Jr. has 41 catches for 739 yards and seven touchdowns. C.J. Hutton has 48 catches for 637 yards and two scores. Chaz Davis (34 catches, 560 yards, 7 TDs), Trent Tompkins (54 catches, 497 yards, 4 TDs), and Winston Williams (33 catches, 261 yards, 6 TDs) get in on the action as well.
With a diversity of weapons, UC Davis ranks No. 8 in FCS scoring offense (35.8 PPG).
Eli Simonson (6’6″ 285 lbs) and Ernesto Nava (6’4″ 305 lbs) are two All-Big Sky selections on the o-line, a unit that has been pretty good, but not dominant. The Aggies rank No. 58 in FCS run-blocking on PFF, No. 26 in pass-blocking, and their 1.92 sacks allowed per game is No. 64.
They’ll go up against one of the top defenses in the FCS.
USD is No. 3 in FCS scoring defense (16.3 PPG), No. 10 in rushing defense (109.6 YPG), No. 33 in pass defense (192.8 YPG), No. 9 in PFF overall defense, No. 3 in PFF run defense, No. 1 in PFF tackling, and No. 31 in PFF coverage.
As shown by those numbers, running on USD isn’t easy. But teams have found some success throwing the ball.
The d-line is a ferocious unit led by Mi’Quise Grace (58 tackles, 18 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 9 QB hurries) and Nick Gaes (43 tackles, 10 TFLs, 8 sacks), two All-MVFC First Team performers on the edge. Blake Holden is a Second Team selection on the interior, totaling 41 tackles, six TFLs, four sacks, and five QB hurries.
Gary Bryant III has stepped up at linebacker to lead the team with 86 tackles as a Second Team All-MVFC performer. LB Nate Ewell is tied for second with 63 stops.
The secondary is experienced and talented, despite the passing numbers above. Part of those numbers are due to teams being forced to pass while its run game couldn’t find success. Dennis Shorter is a First Team All-Conference safety, totaling 63 tackles, two interceptions, and 10 pass breakups. Safety Josiah Ganues earned Honorable Mention accolades with 45 tackles and two pass breakups.
At cornerback, Mike Reid was named to the Second Team, tallying 35 tackles, two interceptions, and seven pass breakups. Shahid Barros is a multi-year starter at CB, and he has 33 tackles, one interception, and three pass breakups this season.
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When USD Has The Ball…
USD’s offense has been super efficient. And the film grades back it up. The Coyotes are No. 1 on PFF in FCS overall offense, No. 2 in passing, No. 3 in receiving, No. 1 in rushing, and No. 1 in run-blocking.
Statistically, the Yotes are No. 4 in FCS scoring offense (37.4 PPG), No. 5 in rushing offense (230.3 YPG), and No. 48 in passing offense (217.0 YPG).
Aidan Bouman provides a steady presence at quarterback. He has thrown for 2,470 yards, 16 touchdowns, and two interceptions, completing 180/261 of his passes (68.9%). Bouman is the No. 3-graded FCS quarterback on PFF, trailing Montana State’s Tommy Mellott and NDSU’s Cam Miller. His 167.2 passing efficiency ranks No. 5 in the subdivision.
Bouman’s favorite target has been Carter Bell, who leads USD with 46 catches for 685 yards and three touchdowns. Quaron Adams has become a home-run hitter, hauling in 16 catches for 457 yards (28.56 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. First Team All-MVFC tight end JJ Galbreath has 20 catches for 356 yards and two scores, but he hasn’t played since late October due to injury and is questionable this week.
USD’s offense wants to establish the run first, though. And the Yotes have a top RB duo in the FCS.
Travis Theis and Charles Pierre Jr. are the No. 3 and 4-graded FCS running backs on PFF. Pierre has 1,153 rushing yards (7.6 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns. Theis has 976 rushing yards (6.3 YPC) and 16 scores. They run behind a big and experienced o-line with First Team All-MVFC selection Joey Lombard (6’5″ 305 lbs) and two Second Team performers Joe Cotton (6’7″ 315 lbs) and Bryce Henderson (6’8″ 320 lbs).
It’ll be strength on strength.
UC Davis’ defense ranks No. 23 in FCS rushing defense (119.9 YPG) and No. 29 in scoring defense (22.2 PPG). Similar to USD, opponents have found more success throwing the ball than running it. The Aggies allow 240.4 passing yards per game, which is 96th in the FCS.
The Aggies are physical against the run. Princeton Toki sets the tone in the middle at 5-foot-11 and 375 pounds. Zach Kennedy is physically impressive as well at defensive end. The 6-foot-6 and 275-pounder is a First Team All-Big Sky selection with 27 tackles, five TFLs, two sacks, and five quarterback hurries. Evan Bearden stands 6-foot-5, 300 pounds, and is a Second Team All-Conference player with 27 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.
David Meyer has had a phenomenal year at linebacker. The All-Conference First Teamer has 113 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, and four interceptions. First Team safety Rex Connors isn’t far behind him with 99 tackles, three TFLs, two interceptions, and six pass breakups. Rex’s twin brother, Porter, is a Second Team linebacker with 81 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and three interceptions.
Kavir Bains has also enjoyed a standout season as a First Team All-Big Sky selection. The defensive back has 74 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, two interceptions, and 13 pass breakups.
UC Davis is tied for 11th in the FCS with 15 interceptions.
Special Teams
UC Davis kicker Hunter Ridley is 16/18 on field goals with a long of 46 yards. Matteo Perez has returned 19 punts for 74 yards. C.J. Hutton has returned 11 kicks for 248 yards.
South Dakota kicker Will Leyland is 9/13 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Carter Bell has 11 punt returns for 115 yards and a touchdown. Keyondray Jones-Logan has eight kick returns for 325 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 40.6 yards per return, which would rank No. 1 in the FCS.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42
UC Davis-South Dakota Prediction
This looks to be a fantastic quarterfinal matchup, likely the best this weekend.
Both teams have great backfields, playmakers on the outside, and strong defenses. Which quarterback makes the bigger throws in big moments could be the difference. Both offenses, coincidentally, are around the Top 20 in third down conversion at 45%. Those will be money downs on Saturday.
The Yotes are so talented defensively. Yet opponents have seemed to find something in the last few games. North Dakota scored 36, NDSU scored 28, and Tarleton State scored 31 last week. Some of that is due to the game flow or unique schemes. But there is something there. And if there is an offensive coaching staff that can exploit the vulnerabilities, it is UC Davis, led by head coach Tim Plough.
USD is as well-rounded of a team as there is in the FCS, as evidenced by its win over NDSU and near win at SDSU. But there is just something about this UC Davis team. The pressure is on USD here. The Coyotes are at home and are considered an FCS title contender for the first time. UC Davis is the slight underdog and has a coolness yet confidence about them.
Davis matches up well with what USD wants to do offensively to keep this ball game tight on the road. And I think the Aggies can find ways to get their playmakers in space and have success. It’ll come down to the wire, and if UC Davis has a chance to tie or go for the win late in the game, I think the Aggies are going for the win.
Prediction: UC Davis 36-35 (OT)
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