#7 seed Mercer (11-2) travels to #2 seed North Dakota State (11-2) in the FCS quarterfinals.
NDSU is an 18.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 53.5. Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 14, and it’ll air on ABC.
This is the first-ever meeting between NDSU and Mercer. Here are some names and numbers to know, plus a score prediction.
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When Mercer Has The Ball…
Mercer scores 32.4 points per game, rushing for 171.5 yards per game while throwing for 217.7.
Six-foot-6 true freshman Whitt Newbauer has handled starting duties at QB down the stretch. He’s completing 57.8% of his passes for 1,308 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Kelin Parsons leads the way with 608 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Brayden Smith and Adjatay Dabbs are both just over 400 receiving yards.
NDSU’s defensive backs and linebackers have been susceptible to big plays or losing battles in space. The Bison’s PFF coverage grade is No. 74 in the FCS, and their tackling grade is No. 119. The Bison allow 18.3 points per game, 119.4 rushing yards per game, and 205.0 passing yards per game.
It’s a more favorable matchup for NDSU this week compared to Abilene Christian in the second round, as Mercer’s offense is built around the run. Dwayne McGee has rushed 216 times for 1,132 yards and eight touchdowns. CJ Miller has also shown potential, going for 81 yards on 10 carries last week vs. Rhode Island. This year, he has 72 carries for 346 yards and three scores.
NDSU is led by linebacker Logan Kopp and his 55 tackles, including four TFLs, two sacks, three interceptions, and six pass breakups. The Bison’s defensive production is spread out, with DT Eli Mostaert second with 49 tackles, highlighted by 11.5 TFLs and six sacks. Marcus Gulley has 44 stops, Enock Sibomana has 41, and Oscar Benson has 36.
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When NDSU Has The Ball…
It’ll be strength on strength this weekend.
Mercer owns the No. 1 FCS rushing defense (66.9 YPG) and the No. 16 scoring defense (19.3 PPG). NDSU has the No. 14 rushing offense (200.6 YPG) and the No. 2 scoring offense (39.7 PPG).
Mercer’s overall defensive grade on PFF is No. 8, and its run defense grade is No. 5. NDSU’s overall offensive grade is No. 3 with the No. 7 rushing grade and No. 9 run-blocking grade.
Mercer is No. 1 in defensive third down conversion percentage at 0.249. NDSU’s offense is No. 3 in third down conversion percentage at 0.534.
Mercer has 42 team sacks. NDSU has allowed just 14. Mercer has the No. 6 pass-rush grade on PFF compared to NDSU’s No. 6 pass-blocking grade.
Mercer leads the FCS with 23 interceptions. NDSU’s Cam Miller is No. 2 in FCS pass efficiency, throwing 26 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Miller is a Top 3 Walter Payton Award finalist, throwing for 2,614 yards, 26 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s added 377 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. NDSU has four players with 25 or more receptions, but Bryce Lance leads the way with 55 catches for 766 yards and 11 touchdowns. CharMar Brown spearheads the rushing unit as the Jerry Rice Award winner, totaling 1,023 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Barika Kpeenu has been a solid No. 2 with 661 yards and six touchdowns.
NDSU’s o-line, led by NFL Draft prospect Grey Zabel, is once again one of the top units in the FCS. The Bison are No. 6 in FCS pass-blocking on PFF and No. 9 in run-blocking.
They’ll go up against that No. 1 rushing defense.
Ken Standley and Isaac Dowling are multi-year starters at linebacker and will go down as all-time Mercer greats. Standley has racked up 92 tackles, eight TFLs, and four QB hurries. Dowling totals 86 tackles, nine TFLs, and eight QB hurries. Marques Thomas shouldn’t be overshadowed, though, as the LB has tallied 74 tackles, eight TFLs, three pass breakups, and four QB hurries.
Mercer’s disruptive defensive line features standouts with eye-opening numbers: Brayden Manley (35 tackles, 16.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 10 QBH), Arias Nash (50 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 8 sacks, 13 QBH), and Andrew Zock (32 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 15 QBH).
The secondary is a little more gettable, allowing 246.31 passing yards per game compared to the 66.9 yards on the ground. But they are ballhawks back there, and some of that statistical discrepancy is due to teams abandoning the run against this defense. Safety Myles Redding has seven interceptions, and Top 3 Buck Buchanan Award finalist TJ Moore has seven more at cornerback to go with his 13 pass breakups. Dainsus Miller adds four picks from his cornerback position.
Special Teams
Mercer kicker Reice Griffith has made 16/20 field goals with a long of 40 yards. Brayden Smith has 24 punt returns for 315 yards and two touchdowns, plus 20 kick returns for 460 yards (23.0 yards per return).
NDSU kicker Griffin Crosa has made 11/13 field goals with a long of 45 yards. Jackson Williams has returned 11 punts for 136 yards and a touchdown, while also returning 14 kicks for 489 yards (34.9 yards per return) and another TD.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42
NDSU-Mercer Prediction
NDSU head coach Tim Polasek sent a message to his players, and probably to the Bison fan base, this week at his press conference.
When asked about NDSU’s slow starts in the last two games, he said, “I think we’re looking ahead. Like it’s not big enough for us. It’s not big enough for anybody just to be in a quarterfinal game … or the second round of the playoffs. It is damn big enough. It is. And that’s gotta be the main focus. It’s the Super Bowl is this weekend. And it’s Mercer, and we’re zeroed in.”
It’s a great perspective.
NDSU is so accustomed to making deep playoff runs, reaching the quarterfinals for the 15th straight season to be exact, that it’s almost just assumed the Bison will coast to the semifinals before getting challenged. On the flip side, Mercer is absolutely ecstatic to be playing on national TV and in the FCS quarterfinals for the first time ever.
It’s a good reminder that — as some call for the FCS playoff bracket to shrink because it’s the same usual teams in the semifinals and Frisco — playing in the first round, second round, or quarterfinals is a damn big deal for a lot of programs.
It feels like the Bison will come out cleaner and more focused compared to last week. And Mercer offensively just doesn’t match up well with NDSU. For non-MVFC teams, it’s easier to go around NDSU’s defense than through it, and Mercer’s offense isn’t built like ACU’s. It’s built more on physicality than speed. And while that’s the right formula, it is hard for most to out-Bison the Bison.
I’m interested to see how Mercer’s rushing defense stacks up. UT Martin, statistically at least, had the No. 5 FCS rushing defense, allowing 84.9 yards per game. Last week, Montana State went for 201 yards on the ground vs. UT Martin along with 300 yards passing. There are levels to this stuff.
I think the Bears could give NDSU’s rushing attack some trouble, but Miller’s arm will be the difference here. The Bison may pop several explosive plays over the top to pull away in the second half.
Prediction: NDSU 31-10
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