The chase for an FCS national championship continues this weekend in the semifinals of the 24-team bracket.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
RELATED: FCS Semifinal Odds
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 125-38
2023 Record: 96-42
FCS Semifinal Predictions
#3 SDSU at #2 NDSU
RELATED: 5 Keys To Victory For NDSU & SDSU
RELATED: NDSU vs. SDSU Tale of the Tape
Another chapter in this storied rivalry.
And while it isn’t the biggest game in the series (they did just play in the national title game two years ago), it does seem like it is the most pivotal. Because the vibes going into that natty matchup were that SDSU was the big favorite, and it was SDSU’s time to finally topple the giant.
This one? The storylines are endless. And it really feels like it could go either way.
It was SDSU that ended NDSU’s dynasty. Now NDSU looks to prevent SDSU from a chance at a three-peat and stamping the seal of being the new dynasty. SDSU has taken a stranglehold of this series in recent years, but it has never won a playoff game in Fargo. The Bison did edge the Jackrabbits earlier this year, but will the “rings over rocks” saying tip to SDSU’s side? Cam Miller finally beat SDSU in October. Can he beat them again on a bigger stage? Mark Gronowski has tied Easton Stick’s all-time wins record for an FCS quarterback. To break it, he has to beat Stick’s former team. And on and on and on. No, this isn’t for a national title. But it feels like an end to an era with some of these seniors. Does SDSU still reign supreme? Or is it time for NDSU to push SDSU back down the pecking order?
I have waffled on this pick all week. During the regular-season matchup, I felt comfortable and confident in picking NDSU despite the Bison going through some key injuries. The vibes were just there that it was time for NDSU to end the losing streak, especially at home.
I’m not confident in whoever I pick this week because I genuinely feel it’s a coin toss.
I’ve literally flip-flopped my pick multiple times every day this week. I’ll look at things on paper and lean one way. Then I’ll think of another matchup and lean the other way. I’ve pictured “If You’re Gonna Play in Texas” playing in the Fargodome. I’ve also pictured SDSU celebrating in that one corner of the Dome with its fans, something we’ve seen multiple times before. I’ll feel good about one offense, and then I won’t. I’ll listen to one podcast or radio segment and feel convinced in my pick. Then I’ll listen to another and change my mind again. As the great Michael Scott once said, “Snip snap snip snap.”
When I’ve leaned toward picking SDSU this week, it’s because of my head and eyes telling me to. They do look like the better team right now. They were not clicking at all offensively or on special teams in the October matchup, NDSU poured everything emotionally and physically (and rightfully so) into that game, and yet SDSU still almost won. Two completable balls in the fourth quarter and SDSU seals that win, but they didn’t connect. They are connecting on those types of plays now. SDSU is much better today than on Oct. 19. I don’t know if the Bison are better now than on Oct. 19. The trajectory and momentum and mojo are trending in different directions. But all that matters on Saturday is who plays better for those 60 game minutes.
When I’ve leaned toward picking NDSU this week, it’s more of a faith pick. I have faith that the Fargodome with some back-in-the-day-level energy will equalize what looks to be an SDSU advantage on paper. I have faith that NDSU will pull that “Bison horseshoe” out again in a game like this and find a way to make the winning plays and be on the right side of an inch difference or a bounce of the ball. And I have faith that, in a game where I don’t see either rushing attack finding much success, it’s NDSU’s passing attack that is a bit more trustworthy to make a big play.
Now that the end of the week is here, I figured let’s not overthink it anymore. Let’s just go with who I think is the better tackle football team right now. And that’s SDSU.
Prediction: SDSU 24-21
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#4 South Dakota at #1 Montana State
RELATED: 5 Keys To Victory For MSU & USD
RELATED: Montana State vs. USD Tale of the Tape
While plenty of hype surrounds the game above, this one could be an all-out Donnybrook, a war of attrition, and dare I say a brawl.
This will be the best rushing offense USD has seen this year. And this will be the best rushing defense MSU has seen this year.
The USD d-line of Mi’Quise Grace, Nick Gaes, Mosai Newsom, and Blake Holden is terrific. They’ll go up against the best o-line in the FCS, led by future pros Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore. Running back Scottre Humphrey (1,325 yards) is expected to be back at running back, while Adam Jones (1,068) has enjoyed a fabulous freshman season.
Just as fascinating will be seeing how MSU physically matches up with USD’s rushing attack. USD’s o-line goes: 6-8 and 320 pounds, 6-6 and 300 pounds, 6-7 and 315 pounds, 6-3 and 310 pounds, 6-5 and 305 pounds. They carry that weight well and aren’t roly-poly 300-pounders that other FCS conferences trot out there. USD also owns an upper-tier FCS offensive line. Travis Theis (1,062 yards) and Charles Pierre Jr. (1,187 yards) are a heckuva duo. MSU’s run defense hasn’t matched up well in previous playoff games vs. MVFC opponents. But the Cats are playing much better defensively this fall, allowing 17.1 points per game (No. 7 in the FCS) and 114.4 rushing yards per game (No. 17).
Neither team will lack motivation. Predictions seemed pretty split last week for UC Davis-South Dakota, giving the Yotes the ol’ chip on the shoulder. This week, it seems just about everyone is picking MSU.
“They wanted it more” is a bit of a cliche. But the Bobcats may have the advantage in just the sheer will and want in this matchup. It’s been a multi-year journey for Montana State to get to this point — the No. 1 team in the FCS and the odds-on favorite to win the national championship. It’s hard to see that journey ending in front of its home crowd. The pride Montana natives have in playing for the in-state FCS programs is unparalleled in this subdivision. And most of MSU’s best players are from the state, including seniors Tommy Mellott, Rylan Ortt, Brody Grebe, McCade O’Reilly, Cole Sain, and Marcus Wehr.
These guys will be legendary names known for decades if they can deliver Bozeman a national championship. And they’ve been locked and loaded all season with a business-like attitude and dominating performances.
It’s going to be a physical battle. And I expect a close game. How long can USD’s defense contain MSU? Is MSU’s defense finally built to stop a downhill MVFC offense? Can the Cats prevent a guy like Theis and his physical running style from taking over the game? Can either secondary win 1-on-1 battles as the main focus will be on stopping the run? Mellott and Aidan Bouman are the two highest-graded FCS quarterbacks on PFF, and they can deliver some dimes over the top if a pass-catcher gets a step on a defender.
I can see a high-scoring game. I can see a low-scoring game. I can see USD winning a tight game. I can see MSU winning a tight game. I can see MSU winning by 2-3 scores.
In the end, this MSU team is too loaded and motivated, and the home-field advantage is too sizeable for USD to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Montana State 35-28
