The 2025 FCS playoffs are here. Eight first-round games kick off the chase for a national championship.
After a 16-8 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
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Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 123-44
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Playoffs First-Round Predictions
Yale at #15 Youngstown State Prediction
Yale enters as the Ivy League’s first-ever auto-bid into the FCS playoffs. The Bulldogs are 8-2 and winners of six straight, including beating No. 8 Harvard 45-28 last week to clinch the AQ. YSU is 8-4 overall and one of the hottest offenses in the FCS. The Penguins have scored 40, 51, 30, 48, 48, and 35 points in the second half of the season.
YSU quarterback Beau Brungard is a top candidate for the Walter Payton Award. The junior has thrown for 2,917 yards, 23 touchdowns, and three interceptions while rushing for 1,378 yards and 24 scores. He’ll go up against a defense allowing just 17.2 points per game. Linebacker Inumidun Ayo-Durojaiye leads the unit with 96 tackles, while Abu Kamara is an elite safety, totaling 65 tackles, six TFLs, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions, and eight pass breakups.
The Penguins haven’t played great defense this year, allowing 30.0 points per game. They’ll have to slow down the physical running back Josh Pitsenberger (1,238 yards, 15 TDs). YSU’s defense is more gettable through the air than on the ground, allowing 251.4 passing YPG compared to 136.8 on the ground. Dante Reno (2,040 yards, 17 TDs, 6 INT) has to be the sharper version of himself as YSU keys on Pitsenberger.
This could turn into a higher-scoring game, but I don’t see Yale being able to go shot-for-shot with Brungard, Max Tomczak, Flash Wilson, and Co.
Prediction: YSU 31-24
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
CCSU at #9 Rhode Island Prediction
CCSU is the NEC champ and owns an 8-4 record. Rhody won the CAA with an 8-0 record in league play and is 10-2 overall with only one FCS loss.
This is the second year in a row that Rhody felt it should have been a Top 8 seed, only to just miss out. Last season, they were the No. 10 seed.
This is a rematch of last year’s first-round contest, where Rhody defeated CCSU 21-17 in a game that was closer than anticipated. However, Rhody’s standout QB Devin Farrell was sidelined with an injury. Farrell is back this year and is lighting it up. The junior has thrown for 3,087 yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He is No. 6 in FCS passing yards. CCSU is allowing 209.2 passing yards per game.
The Blue Devils have a fantastic running back in Elijah Howard, who has rushed for 934 yards and eight touchdowns. It won’t be easy against a Rams defense that allows 19.2 points per game and 138.3 rushing yards per game. A.J. Pena is an uber-talented outside linebacker with 61 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, and 11 QB hurries.
This will be a more decisive game than last year.
Prediction: Rhody 28-14
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Harvard at #12 Villanova Prediction
One of the more intriguing first-round games here.
How does a top CAA team stack up against a top Ivy League team? We’ll soon find out.
Harvard was the Ivy League’s second team to get into the playoffs in its first season participating, earning an at-large bid at 9-1. The Crimson are coming off a 45-28 loss to rival Yale last week. Villanova is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, enjoying an eight-game winning streak.
Nova has great depth at running back. David Avit leads the charge with 683 rushing yards, but he hasn’t played since early November. Ja’briel Mace has stepped up, tallying 600 yards and eight scores on the ground. Isaiah Ragland adds 501 yards and one touchdown. QB Pat McQuaide has been a nice addition after transferring from Nicholls, where he was a multi-year starter. He’s playing some of his best ball, throwing for 2,343 yards, 19 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Harvard’s defense looked tremendous for most of this season, holding seven of its first eight opponents to 14 points or less. But it has allowed 43 and 45 points in the last two games. Overall, it’s been good against the run, allowing just 105.5 rushing yards per game. That will be key, forcing Nova into obvious passing situations. The Wildcats are at their best when the ground game is established to set up the pass.
Jaden Craig will need to carry the Harvard offense. The standout QB has thrown for 2,762 yards, 24 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Nova is stout in the front seven. But the secondary is gettable, allowing 213.6 passing yards per game.
There is something to be said about playoff experience. Playoff football is just a different level, and sometimes first-time participants can’t pull out a close game against a team that knows how to handle these moments. Nova has made three straight playoffs and has several experienced players on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Villanova 24-21
Lamar at #10 Abilene Christian Prediction
Lamar enters the playoffs with an 8-4 overall record, but it’s on a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals lost to ranked SFA 26-15 before suffering a head-scratching 21-19 loss to McNeese last week. They still reached the playoffs, thanks to ranked wins over South Dakota and Southeastern.
Abilene Christian is also 8-4 (8-2 vs. the FCS) and on a four-game winning streak. The Wildcats seem to play up to their competition and down to their competition. They have ranked wins over SFA, Austin Peay, West Georgia, and Tarleton State. They have also lost to Southern Utah and UIW.
Lamar has been scraping by offensively, scoring 17, 14, 15, and 19 points down the stretch. Its defense has played well, though, allowing 21.8 points per game. Kristian Pugh leads the unit with 83 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, four interceptions, and five pass breakups. ACU’s offense can be dangerous, led by QB Stone Earle. He has thrown for 2,771 yards, 19 TDs, and nine interceptions, plus 356 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Javon Gipson is a strong target on the outside, tallying 49 catches for 786 yards and four TDs.
It’s tough to see Lamar’s offense outscoring ACU. It’ll be a close game until the Wildcats make it a two-score contest in the fourth.
Prediction: Abilene Christian 28-17
Drake at #11 South Dakota Prediction
This is a regular-season rematch, something the committee tries to avoid unless it’s between two non-conference opponents. USD defeated Drake 42-21 in September. And that was back when the Coyotes were playing choppy ball. They are now on a heater, entering the playoffs at 8-4 and on a three-game winning streak with all three wins coming against ranked opponents. USD enjoyed a Week 13 bye to rest and recover.
Drake is 8-3 overall and finished 7-1 in the Pioneer Football League, earning the auto-bid.
USD looks to slow down standout RB Nick Herman, who has rushed for 960 yards and six TDs as just a freshman. The Yotes have played strong defense, though, led by Nate Ewell’s 78 tackles and Roman Tillmon’s 75.
Offensively, USD has executed at a higher level lately. Aidan Bouman looks more comfortable and confident in his pass-catchers. He has thrown for 2,143 yards, 18 TDs, and six interceptions. Larenzo Fenner has stepped up in a major way, catching 34 passes for 768 yards (22.7 yards per catch) and 11 TDs. With All-American RB Charles Pierre Jr. going down with a season-ending injury early this season, L.J. Phillips Jr. has put together an All-American season himself with 1,556 yards and 15 scores.
USD should roll against an overmatched Drake squad.
Prediction: USD 35-10
North Dakota at #13 Tennessee Tech Prediction
Tennessee Tech feels snubbed about playing this weekend, going from ranked No. 7 by the playoff committee earlier this month to No. 13 on Selection Sunday. The Golden Eagles are 11-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS.
UND was nervous on Selection Sunday at 7-5 after a 34-31 overtime loss vs. SDSU. But the Fighting Hawks were comfortably in, given that their name wasn’t listed on the “Last 4 In” graphic.
This is one of the more interesting first-round games. It has differing opinions on FCS social media. Some assume UND will roll. Others believe TN Tech is more talented than people realize.
UND Jerry Kaminski had a tremendous start to this season. Overall, he has thrown for 2,360 yards, 25 TDs, and nine interceptions. But in the last four games, he has a 3:7 TD:INT ratio. Top wide receiver B.J. Fleming (770 yards, 7 TDs) also exited last week’s game with an injury. The good news for UND is that power RB Gaven Ziebarth has a good chance to return from injury. He pairs well with speedster Sawyer Seidl (847 yards, 11 TDs).
TN Tech is tremendous against the run, at least against its schedule. The Golden Eagles own the No. 2 FCS rushing defense, allowing 76.1 yards per game on the ground. DL Theron Gaines and LB Aaron Swafford are standouts on the front seven, both with 80+ tackles and 9+ TFLs. Tim Coutras is one of the better FCS safeties with 67 stops. TN Tech didn’t play a strong schedule, so it’s fair to question how good its defense is. We’ll find out against a good UND offensive line and rushing attack.
Offensively for TN Tech, QB Kekoa Visperas (2,486 yards, 25 TDs, 5 INT) has had a good season after transferring from Eastern Washington. Quintell Quinn (687 rushing yards, 9 TDs) and Q’Daryius Jennings (596 yards, 10 TDs) add a nice balance. Running the ball on UND will be a challenge. The Fighting Hawks allow 20.1 points per game and 105.8 rushing yards per game. Malachi McNeal (77 tackles) and Lance Rucker (11 TFLs, 7.5 sacks) are problems.
However, UND is thin at cornerback due to injuries. I think TN Tech can find some success through the air while it proves its defense is a tough outfit.
Prediction: Tennessee Tech 28-24
Illinois State at #16 Southeastern Louisiana Prediction
This is the toughest game for me to predict.
Illinois State has looked great at times this season. And bad at other times. Southeastern was dominating inferior FCS opponents early in the season. But it lost to ranked Lamar in a defensive battle, then beat struggling UIW by three, and then beat struggling Nicholls by 12, granted Nicholls is a rivalry game.
The Redbirds are 8-4 (8-3 vs. the FCS) and own ranked wins over USD and SDSU. They are coming off a puzzling 37-7 home loss to ranked SIU. Southeastern is 9-3 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS.
The Lions have been strong on defense, allowing just 17.8 points per game. KK Reno has 119 tackles, while Kaleb Proctor is a dude on the interior of the d-line, tallying 12 TFLs and eight sacks. They’ll defend a balanced offense. Tommy Rittenhouse has thrown for 2,345 yards, 28 TDs, and five interceptions. Daniel Sobkowicz has had a great career at wide receiver, and this year, he has 686 yards and 11 TDs.
Illinois State’s Tye Niekamp is one of the best linebackers in the FCS, racking up 126 tackles and 12 TFLs this fall. ISU has been leaky on defense, though, allowing 27.2 points per game. The Carson Camp to Jaylon Domingeaux connection has been dangerous for Southeastern. Domingeaux has 779 receiving yards and 11 TDs.
I’ve waffled on this pick a few times this week. But playoff experience can be a factor. ISU has several players who won a playoff game last season. And the Redbirds are 5-1 in first-round playoff games under Brock Spack.
I think the Redbirds find a way to make the winning play in winning moments. And I trust their offense a little more to put together a scoring drive late in the game.
Prediction: Illinois State 27-24
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New Hampshire at #14 South Dakota State Prediction
The Chase Mason watch continues.
He has gone from doubtful for a few weeks, to questionable last week (suiting up for warmups before determining he couldn’t go), to now probable this week? Question mark?
Local reports indicate he is fully practicing this week. Mason was 7-0 as a starter before a foot injury sidelined him. He has thrown for 1,419 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception this season, along with four rushing TDs. SDSU went on a four-game skid without Mason, but won last week at ranked UND to stamp its spot in the playoffs at 8-4.
UNH is also 8-4 overall (8-3 vs. the FCS) and on a five-game winning streak.
SDSU has shown a tendency to allow explosive plays. The Jackrabbits will try to slow down the talented WR duo of Caleb Burke (764 yards, 3 TDs) and Chase Wilson (699 yards, 5 TDs).
On the flipside, UNH is allowing a solid 21.3 points per game. The Wildcats’ run defense (161.3 rushing yards per game) will be tested as SDSU looks to establish its ground game, something that started to pop last week after some down games. Whether it’s Jack Henry still at QB or it’s Mason, UNH will sell out to stop the run and dare SDSU’s passing attack to beat them. UNH allows 173.2 passing yards per game, and SDSU has multiple weapons that can make a big play between Alex Bullock, Grahm Goering, or Jack Smith. The question is, how comfortable is the freshman Henry or a returning Mason?
If Mason plays, it’ll give SDSU a shot in the arm. Even if he doesn’t, I can see SDSU grinding out a win.
Prediction: SDSU 28-17
