The 2025 FCS playoffs continue with the quarterfinals. The chase for a national championship is down to eight teams.
After a 6-2 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 135-48
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Predictions
#7 SFA at #2 Montana State Prediction
Opponents have run into a buzzsaw in Bozeman during these Friday night quarterfinal games. Idaho lost 52-19 last year, and William & Mary lost 55-7 in 2022.
I’m curious to watch how SFA’s run defense stacks up. Statistically, the Lumberjacks have been one of the top rushing defenses in the country. Southland offensive lines don’t pack the same punch as MSU’s, though. I think they’ll run into a motivated MSU offense that didn’t play well last week. Sometimes, national title contenders have had wake-up calls early in the bracket.
For SFA to win this game, it’ll have to hit on explosive plays offensively while stopping the run for all four quarters. For all four quarters is the key. We’ve seen teams in past years be able to hold their own against national powers for a half, but then the dam breaks in the second. MSU’s defense has been good at limiting big plays over the top. And as the game progresses, I think MSU’s offense begins to wear down the Jacks.
SFA will be ready to play. And I don’t think the weather will be much of a factor. But I can see MSU finding success on the edges before things soften up in the middle, similar to last year’s UT Martin playoff game. Eventually, the trenches and home-field advantages take their toll, and the Cats pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
#12 Villanova at #4 Tarleton State Prediction
If Villanova wants to win on Saturday, Pat McQuaide has to play the best game of his career. It’s hard to see Villanova finding much success on the ground, especially after seeing what Tarleton did to UND’s ground game last week.
Tarleton is No. 4 in FCS tackles for loss, totaling 97. Villanova’s run-blocking grade is No. 105 on PFF. Villanova will have to air it out, and that isn’t in its comfort zone, especially against a ball-hawking secondary.
Villanova will bring good physicality to this game. But Tarleton has shown it can match that physicality. And the overall team speed on the Texans looks superior to Nova’s. I don’t see Villanova’s offense keeping pace. The Wildcats will be playing from behind and out of their game, and that’s when turnovers could happen despite McQuaide taking good care of the ball this year. His 23:2 TD:INT ratio is much better than his 27:22 in two years at Nicholls.
A +30 turnover margin for Tarleton is wild. The Texans will have a chance to add to that on Saturday.
Prediction: Tarleton State 31-17
Check out the latest episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast.
You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk
#11 South Dakota at #3 Montana Prediction
The FCS playoffs tend to do this pendulum swing.
One round, a conference has all the bragging rights. The next round, that conference dips back. One round, a national title contender looks vulnerable. The next week, they look elite. And vice versa.
With that said, both Montana and USD looked elite last week. A part of me thinks there is going to be a whole lot of fireworks after what these offenses showed last week. Another part of me thinks this may end up being a slugfest, where both offenses have to earn every single yard in a physical style of game. We shall see.
This is the second straight road trip for the Coyotes, which is no easy thing in the playoffs. Home-field advantage gets more sizable the deeper into the bracket. And there is no louder venue in the FCS than Washington-Grizzly Stadium.
A storyline within this game is Aidan Bouman returning to the state of Montana. Last year was expected to be his last at USD. But the semifinal loss at Montana State didn’t sit right with him, and he announced he’d be back for his final year. Games like this are why Bouman returned, and he’s been dialed in down the stretch.
The key in this game will be Montana cornerbacks Kyon Loud and Kenzel Lawler. If they can hold their own on the outside, the Griz are going to send some heat. USD doesn’t allow a lot of sacks, but it has PFF’s No. 125 FCS pass-blocking grade. You may not be able to rattle the veteran Bouman, but you can knock him off his spots.
Montana’s defense puts together a strong overall performance, keeping USD in the 20s. And the Griz are too explosive not to get into at least the lower-30s.
Prediction: Montana 31-24
RELATED: Celebration Bowl Preview & Prediction
Illinois State at #8 UC Davis Prediction
Two questions within this matchup come to my mind.
At what point does UC Davis’ subpar defense cost the Aggies a game in the playoffs? And how will ISU respond physically and mentally? Don’t remind me of what happened to my Vikings a week after the Minneapolis Miracle.
It’s hard to have an emotional letdown in the playoffs, where each game gets bigger. But if UC Davis seizes momentum, does the air get let out of ISU’s balloon quicker? The Aggies can avalanche a defense in a hurry, scheming up ways to get their athletes in space to pop off explosive plays. However, ISU does have the d-line to throw Davis off rhythm. Caden Pinnick is electric, but he will throw a bad interception or take a bad sack due to some freshman mistakes.
UC Davis’ defense has to get off the field on third down. The Redbirds ran 91 plays to NDSU’s 46 last week, slowly working the ball downfield. They had just one completion that went over 24 yards. Can the No. 89 passing defense get stops? The Aggies are also 43.3% on third downs defensively, which is No. 88 in the FCS.
The Aggies’ pass protection and defensive deficiencies are a concern. But it’s also a team that can come at you in waves when it’s in its bag offensively.
This is ISU’s fifth road trip in the last six weeks, including three straight road playoff games. It’ll be a valiant effort at Davis, but the Aggies prevail with the fresher legs in the fourth.
Prediction: UC Davis 35-31
