No. 3 seed Montana hosts No. 11 seed South Dakota in the FCS quarterfinals. The winner will face No. 2 Montana State.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 135-48
2024 Record: 126-40
Montana vs. South Dakota On TV
The matchup between Montana and South Dakota airs nationally on ABC.
Kickoff is at 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 13. It takes place at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Missoula, Montana.
Montana vs. South Dakota Preview
If one were to rank the remaining eight teams in the FCS playoffs, three of the best four are arguably on one side of the bracket. And two of them square off here.
Montana looks loaded for a run after its 50-29 win over South Dakota State in the second round. USD looked equally impressive, going on the road to beat No. 6 Mercer 47-0. The Coyotes have won five straight, with four of the wins being against ranked teams.
Mercer’s offense led the FCS with 504.1 total yards per game entering last week. The Coyotes will be tested even more against a red-hot Montana offense. The Grizzlies are averaging 41.5 points per game (No. 3 in the FCS), 179.5 rushing yards (No. 29), and 286.6 passing yards (No. 6).
USD’s defense doesn’t wow in any defensive statistical category, allowing 24.5 PPG (No. 42 in the FCS), 151.2 rushing YPG (No. 57), 198.1 passing YPG (No. 36), and having a 42.6 third-down conversion percentage (No. 83). But the Coyotes make an offense earn every yard with a physical defensive line and an opportunistic secondary. Mikey Munn has five interceptions, and RJ Stewart has three. Caden Crawford is a disruptor up front with 75 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, and five sacks. Nate Ewell leads the unit with 93 tackles.
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
This game features two of the best quarterbacks and running backs in the FCS.
Montana’s Eli Gillman has rushed for 1,396 yards and 19 touchdowns. USD’s L.J. Phillips Jr. stepped up for injured All-American Charles Pierre Jr. and has rushed for 1,847 yards and 18 scores. Redshirt sophomore Keali’i Ah Yat has become a star for the Griz, throwing for 3,514 yards, 29 touchdowns, and eight interceptions with a 69.6 completion percentage. Aidan Bouman is a 3.5-year starter for USD and in his sixth season of college ball. The 6-foot-5 lefty is completing 61.8% of his passes for 2,645 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Bouman and his new crop of pass-catchers took a while to look comfortable this season. But they are rolling now. Larenzo Fenner has especially emerged as an elite target, tallying 43 catches for 983 yards and 15 touchdowns.
USD is operating at its highest off of play-action, so it’ll be key for the Griz to force obvious passing situations. Montana getting standout cornerback Kyon Loud back from injury is massive. It allows the Griz to play more man on the outside while dialing up its pressure packages. Linebackers Peyton Wing, Caleb Otlewski, and Solomon Tuliaupupu need a big game against the run — getting off blocks and getting hats to the ball.
The Yotes don’t want to get into a track meet, although they have shown the ability to win that style of game in their 53-51 five-overtime win over Southern Illinois. USD will try to grind Montana down, but those 1-on-1 opportunities will be there on the outside. Playing ball control will be key in keeping Ah Yat, Gillman, and the barrage of WR weapons like Michael Wortham, Brooks Davis, Blake Bohannon, and Drew Deck off the field.
Check out the latest episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast.
You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk
Montana vs. South Dakota Prediction
The FCS playoffs tend to do this pendulum swing.
One round, a conference has bragging rights over everyone else. The next round, that conference dips back. One round, a national title contender looks vulnerable. The next week, they look elite. And vice versa.
With that said, both Montana and USD looked elite last week. A part of me thinks there is going to be a whole lot of fireworks after what these offenses showed last week. Another part of me thinks this may end up being a slugfest, where both offenses have to earn every single yard in a physical contest. We shall see.
This is the second straight road trip for the Coyotes, which is no easy thing in the playoffs. Home-field advantage gets more sizable the deeper into the bracket. And there is no louder venue in the FCS than Washington-Grizzly Stadium.
A storyline within this game is Aidan Bouman returning to the state of Montana. Last year was expected to be his last at USD. But the semifinal loss at Montana State didn’t sit right with him, and he announced he’d be back for his final year. Games like this are why Bouman returned, and he’s been dialed in down the stretch.
The key in this game will be Montana cornerbacks Kyon Loud and Kenzel Lawler. If they can hold their own on the outside, the Griz are going to send some heat. Bouman can maneuver well in the pocket, but his scrambling ability isn’t a concern for defenses. USD doesn’t allow a lot of sacks, but it has PFF’s No. 125 FCS pass-blocking grade. You may not be able to rattle the veteran Bouman, but you can knock him off his spots.
Montana’s defense puts together a strong overall performance, keeping USD in the 20s. And the Griz are too explosive not to get into at least the lower-30s.
Prediction: Montana 31-24
