No. 2 seed Montana State hosts No. 7 seed SFA in the FCS quarterfinals. The winner will face either No. 11 South Dakota or No. 3 Montana.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 135-48
2024 Record: 126-40
Montana State vs. SFA On TV
The matchup between Montana State and SFA airs nationally on ESPN.
Kickoff is at 8 p.m. CT on Friday, Dec. 12. It takes place at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Montana.
Montana State vs. SFA Preview
Montana State’s offense was rolling. But last week, the Bobcats had one of their poorer offensive performances in recent memory. In a 21-13 second-round win over Yale, MSU was thrown off its rhythm. Credit Yale’s physicality for mucking up the game. MSU’s ground game did its thing statistically with 249 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. But it was an overall choppy performance. Justin Lamson went just 10/16 for 92 yards.
The Cats will face a stiff test again.
Entering last week, SFA had the No. 3 FCS scoring defense (15.3 PPG), No. 2 rushing defense (77.5 YPG), and the No. 14 passing defense (175.8 YPG). But Abilene Christian found success in the second round, a 41-34 SFA shootout win. The Wildcats ran for 211 yards and threw for 208.
The Lumberjacks have the bodies, physicality, and disruptiveness on the d-line to be tough against the run. They are No. 1 in the FCS with 114 TFLs, led by Ky Thomas’ 13. SFA is also graded with PFF’s No. 2 FCS run defense. Standout linebacker Jaydon Southard cleans things up with 116 tackles and 10.5 TFLs. But how do the Lumberjacks match up against what will be the best FCS rushing attack they’ve seen this year?
MSU has the No. 4 FCS rushing offense, averaging 234.6 yards per game. Julius Davis (948 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (802 yards, 11 TDs) form a dynamic duo in the backfield. The Bobcats, averaging 36.9 points per game (No. 9 in the FCS), are more balanced offensively this year, throwing for 198.8 yards per game. Lamson is completing 71.8% of his passes for 2,437 yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also has 645 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. Taco Dowler leads MSU’s pass-catchers with 61 receptions for 751 yards and five touchdowns.
SFA has two elite cornerbacks, which allows SFA to key in on the run more, trusting its outside guys. Charles Demmings has four interceptions and five pass breakups. And Jalen Mayo has four interceptions with nine pass breakups. Demmings is one of the top NFL Draft prospects in the FCS.
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On the other side of the ball, MSU’s stout defense looks to overwhelm SFA’s talented offense with a helping hand from a juiced-up home crowd.
SFA is averaging 36.0 points per game (No. 14 in the FCS), 235.5 passing yards per game (No. 37), and 161.4 rushing YPG (No. 53). MSU fields the No. 6 FCS scoring defense, allowing 16.8 PPG. The Cats allow 119.4 rushing YPG (No. 16) and 196.6 passing YPG (No. 35).
MSU’s young cornerbacks will be tested.
Kylon Harris is a star wide receiver, tallying 75 catches for 983 yards and 10 touchdowns. Clayton Wayland adds 499 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Derrick Bohler and Isaiah Davis have hauled in five touchdowns. Sam Vidlak, a transfer from Montana, is enjoying his second straight standout season at SFA. He has thrown for 2,447 yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 67.2% of his throws. Jerrell Wimbley complements that passing game with 940 yards and nine TDs on the ground.
MSU boasts one of the better defensive lines in the FCS with a combination of star power and depth. Paul Brott (17 tackles) sets the tone in the middle. Kenneth Eiden IV (11 TFLs, 5.5 sacks) and Hunter Parsons (9.5 TFLs, 4 sacks) are two dynamic pass-rushers. If MSU can force SFA into obvious passing situations, the d-line has shown the ability to pin their ears back and get after the passer, sometimes needing only four to get home.
Cole Taylor has emerged as a standout linebacker, totaling 77 tackles and seven TFLs. Caden Dowler has had a fantastic season at safety, notching 82 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, five interceptions, and four pass breakups.
The return game and special teams coverage could be a factor in this one. MSU’s Jabez Woods is averaging 30.6 yards per kick return, and Taco Dowler is averaging 13.7 yards per punt return with one touchdown. SFA’s Bugs Mortimer has been ridiculous returning punts, averaging 21.5 yards per return with four touchdowns. He was sidelined in the second-round game, though.
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Montana State vs. SFA Prediction
Teams have run into a buzzsaw in these Bozeman Friday night quarterfinal games. Idaho lost 52-19 last year, and William & Mary lost 55-7 in 2022.
I’m interested to see how SFA’s run defense stacks up. Statistically, the Lumberjacks have been strong these last couple of years. Southland offensive lines don’t pack the same punch as MSU’s, though. I think they’ll run into a motivated MSU offense that didn’t play well last week. Sometimes, national title contenders have had wake-up calls early in the bracket.
For SFA to win this game, it’ll have to hit on explosive plays offensively while stopping the run for all four quarters. For all four quarters is the key. We’ve seen teams in past years be able to hold their own against national powers for a half, but then the dam breaks in the second. MSU’s defense has been good at limiting big plays over the top. And as the game progresses, I think MSU’s offense begins to wear down the Jacks.
SFA will be ready to play. And I don’t think the weather will be much of a factor. But I can see MSU finding success on the edges before things soften up in the middle, similar to last year’s UT Martin playoff game. Eventually, the trenches and home-field advantages take their toll, and the Cats pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
