If history holds true, the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to draft a Hall of Famer in the 2018 NFL Draft. And I'm not talking about their first round picks — I'm talking about their third round picks, No. 74 and No. 86 overall, which have been historical outliers when it comes to NFL production.
The 74th pick of the draft has produced four Hall of Famers and eight players who have amassed a Career AV of at least 50 (Career AV is a Sports Reference statistic attempting to put a single number to determine the value of a player's career).
That list includes Hall of Fame players like Will Shields, Curtis Martin, Larry Wilson and Charlie Sanders, among other notable players like Steve Smith and Justin Tuck.
The 86th pick has also produced four Hall of Famers and 10 players with a Career AV of at least 50. That includes Hall of Famers Andre Reed, Jackie Slater, Joe Schmidt and Morton Andersen, as well as notable stars Marshal Yanda, Tedy Bruschi and others.
How unlikely is this occurrence? The third round of the draft (picks 65-96, when considering draft spot, not actual round) has produced 25 total Hall of Famers, 32 percent of them coming at the No. 74 and No. 86 draft spot.
Four other draft slots in the third round (again, picks 65-96, some of which were other rounds depending on the draft year) have produced two Hall of Famers — Pick 77 (Elvin Bethea and Tony Canadeo), Pick 78 (Gene Hickerson and Danny Fortmann), Pick 80 (Art Shell and Jim Ringo) and Pick 82 (Joe Montana and John Stallworth).
Here's a look at the historic production from the 74th and 86th picks of the draft throughout all of NFL history.
Best 74th Picks in the Draft
|1993||Will Shields (HOF)||G||KAN||Nebraska||113|
|1995||Curtis Martin (HOF)||RB||NWE||Pittsburgh||100|
|1960||Larry Wilson (HOF)||DB||STL||Utah||85|
|1988||James Hasty||DB||NYJ||Washington St.||76|
|2005||Justin Tuck||DE||NYG||Notre Dame||64|
|1968||Charlie Sanders (HOF)||TE||DET||Minnesota||53|
Best 86th Picks in the Draft