The chase for an FCS national championship continues this weekend in the second round of the 24-team bracket.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
RELATED: FCS Playoffs Second-Round Odds
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 114-37
2023 Record: 96-42
FCS Playoffs Second-Round Predictions
#14 Montana at #3 South Dakota State
A fun Frisco rematch as Montana visits SDSU, although it’s happening a bit sooner in the bracket than expected going back to preseason rankings.
After last season’s FCS championship game, SDSU head coach Jimmy Rogers said, “This is the best defense in FCS history.” SDSU allowed just 9.27 points per game. I’ve said on some media hits that I think SDSU’s defense right now is playing just as strong as last year’s unit — defensive line is better and more disruptive, the secondary is playing just as good, and the linebackers aren’t too far off of last year’s elite LB group. I wasn’t sure if that was too hot of a take, but numbers and eyeball test backs it up. This year against non-FBS teams, SDSU is allowing 9.5 PPG, another elite figure.
That’s not a good sign for a Montana offense that has struggled to find its identity this year. It’s hard to see the Grizzlies finding much success on this SDSU defense. And on the flip side, the Jackrabbit offense has noticeably clicked better down the stretch of the regular season.
Montana has fallen back since its national championship appearance. Meanwhile, SDSU appears to be peaking at the right time as the Jacks are tied with Montana State for the best odds to win the FCS championship.
Prediction: SDSU 35-14
RELATED: Favorites To Win The 2024 FCS National Title, Ranked 16-1
#11 Villanova at #6 UIW
It sorta seems like things will go chalk in the second round. No first-round team inspired much confidence that they could advance to the quarterfinals. But then again, sometimes narratives and thoughts flip-flop round to round. For example, the CAA did not look good in Round 1 and is getting dragged through the social media mud because of it. But it is certainly possible that Villanova beats UIW and Rhode Island beats Mercer this weekend and the narratives flip.
Villanova squeaked by EKU last week, a win that was overshadowed by controversial officiating calls. It wasn’t a resounding win for Nova to convince many people that it can beat UIW. Yet UIW also doesn’t come into this matchup guns blazing after some ho-hum performances to end the regular season.
This could be one of the closer games in Round 2. I’ll lean UIW. The offensive explosiveness behind the arm of Zach Calzada (3,351 yards, 33 touchdowns, 8 INT) and his receivers Jalen Walthall (1,149 yards, 14 TDs) and Roy Alexander (947 yards, 11 TDs) will get theirs. And a Villanova offense scoring just 24.4 points per game will have trouble keeping up.
UIW’s defense is perhaps underappreciated this season. The Cardinals are allowing a decent 22.58 points per game. But the talent is immense with guys like Mason Chambers, Dune Smith, and Devin Grant. Nova has shown too much inconsistency offensively to go shot for shot with UIW.
Prediction: UIW 31-24
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Rhode Island at #7 Mercer
Rhody didn’t inspire much confidence that it can go to Mercer and get a win after narrowly beating partial-scholarship CCSU last week in Round 1.
Backup quarterback Hunter Helms has stepped in for an injured Devin Farrell and has looked shaky, throwing five interceptions to two touchdowns in the last three games. So Rhody has leaned on the run and the fantastic Malik Grant, who has rushed for 1,390 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has carried the ball 24, 37, and 29 times in the last three contests.
That isn’t a good matchup against this Mercer defense that allows 244.67 passing yards per game and only 68.4 rushing YPG, which ranks No. 1 in the FCS. Ken Standley, Isaac Dowling, Marques Thomas, and Co. will be too tough for Rhode Island to find offensive success on.
Expect a bit of a lower-scoring game. Mercer’s offense is led by stud RB Dwayne McGee, who has 1,018 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Rhody’s rush defense grade is No. 7 in the FCS on PFF. But I think the Bears can pop enough explosive plays over the top to build a two-score lead by the game’s end. Mercer freshman QB Whitt Newbauer has shown flashes this season of his big arm.
Prediction: Mercer 24-14
UT Martin at #1 Montana State
UT Martin flexed its muscle last week, beating #16 seed New Hampshire 41-10 and outgaining the Wildcats 482-124 in total yards.
Statistically, UT Martin is one of the top rush defenses in the subdivision. The Skyhawks allow just 84.9 rushing yards per game (No. 5 in the FCS) and own the No. 7 FCS rush defense grade on PFF. Christian Dowell (6-2, 320 lbs) is the No. 1-graded FCS interior defensive lineman while linebacker Jaylon Sharpe has 79 tackles and 14.5 TFLs.
They will face the ultimate test in Bozeman, going up against the No. 1 FCS rush offense in yards per game (317.9) and PFF’s rushing grade (96.6). Marcus Wehr is the No. 1 FCS guard on PFF, Titan Fleischmann is the No. 5 offensive tackle, and Conner Moore is a future pro.
I don’t expect the Bobcats to completely blow the doors off of UT Martin to start the game. UT Martin may hang tough for a half behind its stout defense, but the depth of MSU and the home atmosphere will help seize control of the game in the second half.
While Tommy Mellott, Scottre Humphrey, Adam Jones, and Co. get plenty of deserved love, MSU’s defense is also playing at a high level, ranking No. 6 in the FCS with 17.0 points allowed per game. It’ll be tough for UT Martin’s offense to keep pace with MSU’s offense for all four quarters.
Prediction: Montana State 38-17
#13 Tarleton State at #4 South Dakota
An interesting matchup to see how Tarleton’s offensive explosiveness matches up with one of the best and most physical defenses in the FCS. We’ve seen this matchup and story many times in the postseason, though, right? And Tarleton, an FCS playoff newbie who has massive potential to be an FCS contender, may get a lesson in what it takes to be at contender status. It’s just a different level at the top, and you don’t know what you don’t know until you see it.
USD is so good in the trenches, and it seems that will overwhelm Tarleton as this game wears on.
The Coyotes are No. 1 on PFF in FCS run-blocking, opening lanes for the dynamic duo of Charles Pierre Jr. (1,073 yards, 15 TDs) and Travis Theis (846 yards, 13 TDs). They are No. 3 in overall FCS defense and No. 3 in rush defense on PFF.
That, of course, will be key in slowing down Kayvon Britten, one of the best FCS running backs who has racked up 1,896 yards on the ground and 18 touchdowns. Tarleton likes to loosen the defense by taking downfield shots to Darius Cooper, who has 67 catches for 1,289 yards and 11 scores. USD has two very talented cornerbacks in Mike Reid and Shahid Barros, two guys who will be tested and will have to be clean in their fundamentals to avoid pass-interference calls on jump balls.
There may be a theme in the second round this weekend. Some teams will have the athletes and explosiveness to hang for a half, but when it comes to the big dogs like MSU, NDSU, SDSU, and USD, depth and play in the trenches will be the difference in the second half. We’ve seen it too many times in the last decade. And until we see otherwise, it’s clear what style of ball wins in December.
Prediction: USD 38-21
#15 Abilene Christian at #2 North Dakota State
It’s hard to out-Bison the Bison. Very few teams have been able to do so in the last decade. But one type of offense that can give NDSU trouble is what ACU runs, similar to UIW’s offense in 2022 or some of the past JMU offenses — spread you out with multiple wide receivers that are playmakers with a veteran QB who is hard to rattle, but also have a good run game against a lighter box.
Maverick McIvor, who is expected to play after missing the last 1.5 games, has thrown for 3,675 yards, 29 touchdowns, and five interceptions this season. He has two receivers (Blayne Taylor and Nehemiah Martinez I) who are both around 1,000 yards. And Sam Hicks provides a great balance for the offense, rushing for 1,180 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry.
NDSU’s defense has allowed 270, 296, and 272 passing yards in the last three games. The Bison’s pass-coverage grade on PFF is No. 76 in the FCS.
Maybe ACU can hit on some explosive plays early to make it a tight ball game for a half. The question will be how long can the trenches hang. NDSU’s pass-rushing grade is No. 3 in the FCS. Can the ACU offensive line handle the physicality for all four quarters, or will McIvor be scrambling and out of rhythm?
Defensively, ACU played tremendous in the first round by shutting out NAU. But the Wildcats do allow 29.1 points per game on the season. They aren’t used to NDSU’s style of ball, and that will take its toll as the game wears on. The Bison will be too much on offense behind a good o-line, Walter Payton Award finalist Cam Miller at QB, and Jerry Rice Award winner CharMar Brown at running back.
Prediction: NDSU 42-20
#12 Illinois State at #5 UC Davis
If you were to ask me at the start of this week which spreads would be the tightest in the second round, I would have said Nova-UIW and/or Rhody-Mercer. I didn’t expect it to be UC Davis as only a touchdown favorite vs. Illinois State.
The oddsmakers must see something in this matchup to think it’ll be a one-score game. But I just don’t like this matchup for ISU.
The Redbirds struggled to get the run game going last week at SEMO. It’s hard to see them finding more success on a stout UC Davis run defense. That means Tommy Rittenhouse will need to win this game with his arm. And he’s had a strong season, throwing for 2,607 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions. But UC Davis has the No. 16 coverage grade on PFF and ranks just outside of the Top 10 with 14 team interceptions.
Defensively, ISU will face a tough task slowing down a UC Davis offense scoring 35.25 points per game. The QB-RB duo is as good as it gets in the FCS. Miles Hastings has thrown for 3,745 yards, 32 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Lan Larison has 1,321 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, plus he leads the team with 58 catches for 755 yards and six touchdowns.
UC Davis will be heard from in this bracket, and it starts with a win over ISU.
Prediction: UC Davis 28-17
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Lehigh at #8 Idaho
A week ago, some were looking at #8 Idaho vs. #9 Richmond as the juiciest second-round matchup. But that ain’t happening.
Lehigh went to Richmond as a two-score underdog and knocked off the Spiders, 20-16.
The Mountain Hawks now travel across the country to an Idaho team that has picked up steam heading into the postseason.
Idaho has won five straight, enjoying the return of Week 1 starting quarterback Jack Layne. In five games, Layne is 64/103 for 915 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions. Mark Hamper has really stepped up as just a freshman, totaling 42 catches for 853 yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Dwyer is also a big-time threat with 60 receptions for 837 yards and eight TDs.
I think Idaho can find success on a tough, but banged-up Lehigh defense. Standout LB Mike DeNucci didn’t play last week. Plus, Matt Spatny and Tyler Ochojski left the game on stretchers with scary injuries. Thankfully, they were later released from the hospital.
Lehigh is most comfortable running the ball behind its two great RBs Luke Yoder (940 yards, 10 TDs) and Jaden Green (763 yards, 10 TDs). Idaho’s run defense is stout, though, led by Jaxton Eck, Keyshawn James-Newby, and Dallas Afalava. The d-line will use the much-needed bye week to get healthy and back to its dominant form, similar to the start of the season.
It’ll be too much Idaho here, stifling Lehigh’s offense while owning the clock on its own offensive end.
Prediction: Idaho 31-14
