The 2024 FCS playoffs continue into the second round this weekend.
Who are the top contenders to win the national title? Who are the long-shots?
Every week, I will rank my favorites to win the national championship out of the remaining teams in the field. This list will get knocked down from 24 to 16 to eight to four, and then it’s national title time.
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The order of teams takes bracket positioning and matchups into consideration when analyzing how far a team can advance. It isn’t an exact ranking of the best teams 1-16.
16. Lehigh
Lehigh had the biggest upset win in the first round, defeating #9 seed Richmond 20-16. The Mountain Hawks now face a much stiffer test by traveling to #8 Idaho.
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15. UT Martin
UT Martin made a statement in the opening round, beating #16 New Hampshire 41-10. But now UT Martin walks into the belly of the beast, traveling to #1 Montana State, a program and a sold-out crowd thirsting for a national championship.
14. #14 seed Montana
Montana advanced to the second round by beating Tennessee State, 41-27. Its reward is a trip to Brookings and #3 SDSU, a rematchup of last year’s national championship game. This is one of the more lopsided spreads in the second round.
13. #15 seed Abilene Christian
ACU handled Northern Arizona with ease, winning 24-0. Standout QB Maverick McIvor is expected to return this week after missing the last 1.5 games. ACU’s offensive scheme of spreading a defense out with multiple playmaking wide receivers while also having a good run game could give NDSU some trouble early, similar to UIW in 2022. But ACU’s style of ball typically doesn’t end up going well against NDSU’s style of ball in the playoffs.
12. #13 seed Tarleton State
Tarleton State found out last week that playoff football is a different level. The Texans found themselves down 14-3 early vs. non-scholarship Drake before settling in and winning 43-29. For comparison, USD beat Drake 42-3 in September. Tarleton is investing strongly in football (which the FCS lacks) and has FBS aspirations. But in the meantime, it wants to build itself into a consistent FCS contender (which the FCS desperately needs in the south). Facing South Dakota may serve as a valuable lesson on the level of play, most notably in the trenches, it takes to be a legit FCS title threat.
11. #10 seed Rhode Island
Rhody going to #7 Mercer in the second round looked like a juicy matchup a week ago. After barely beating partial-scholarship CCSU 21-17, confidence is waning in the Rams being able to beat the Bears. But it could be a tight ball game.
10. #12 seed Illinois State
ISU held off SEMO for a 35-27 first-round win. Now the Redbirds travel to UC Davis in a game that has the smallest second-round spread. We’ll see how well ISU matches up with the Aggies. The Redbirds are getting healthier defensively and have found steady QB play with Tommy Rittenhouse.
9. #11 seed Villanova
Nova beat EKU 22-17 in the first round, but it was overshadowed by controversial officiating calls. The performance didn’t create more confidence that Nova could go to #6 UIW and get a win, but this matchup was already one that was circled with the potential to be a close game. Villanova has the defensive strength and veteran quarterback play from Connor Watkins to maybe make this interesting.
8. #6 seed UIW
UIW sliding up to the No. 6 seed was surprising. Most thought if UIW were to get a seed, it’d be No. 8 behind Mercer and Idaho. UIW hasn’t exactly had emphatic wins down the stretch, beating an SFA team without its starting quarterback 27-20 and then beating struggling East Texas A&M 38-24, a game UIW trailed 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter. The Cardinals will get a good test this weekend vs. Nova. If they win there, it’s a return trip to #3 seed SDSU, where UIW lost 45-24 earlier this season but kept it competitive into the second half. Weather may not be as conducive for UIW’s passing attack this time around.
7. #7 seed Mercer
Mercer plays #10 Rhode Island this weekend, which could be a tight ball game. A top CAA team playing the top SoCon team will be very important for the conference narratives. Rhody didn’t look too strong in the opening round, narrowly beating CCSU. If Mercer wins, it would face a tall quarterfinal task in going to #2 seed NDSU.
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6. #8 seed Idaho
The biggest complaint in the bracket could be Idaho, who questionably got bumped to the #8 seed when it looked like it should have been the 6 or 7 seed. Either way, a very tough quarterfinal game would have loomed at SDSU or NDSU if it had gotten the 6 or 7 slot. But now, Idaho has a more favorable second-round draw in hosting Lehigh, who upsets #9 Richmond. A win this weekend, and it’s a return trip to #1 seed Montana State, where the Vandals lost 38-7 in October. Idaho is healthier now, especially with QB Jack Layne back and the standout d-line getting some rest, compared to that trip to Bozeman.
5. #5 seed UC Davis
If NDSU got the #2 seed over SDSU due to its overall body of work, one could argue UC Davis should have gotten the #4 seed over USD. Davis is 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, two Top 10 wins, and its only FCS loss a two-point game vs. now-No. 1 Montana State. Davis and USD have a nice pathway to a quarterfinal matchup, where USD’s defense and home-field give it a slight edge. The Aggies first have to go through Illinois State, who the oddsmakers believe can make this the closest game in the second round.
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4. #4 seed South Dakota
The Coyotes proved they are a legit national title contender in the final week of the regular season, knocking off No. 1 NDSU. But they have the toughest path to Frisco out of this Top 4. USD will have to beat an explosive Tarleton State team in the second round, and then likely UC Davis in the quarterfinals, another team that has proven it belongs in the national title picture. If the Yotes advance to the semifinals, they will likely play in Bozeman, which will be the toughest place to get a win in this year’s bracket.
3. #3 seed SDSU
If SDSU makes it to Frisco, the Jackrabbits may be a slight betting favorite over the #1 team on this list, Montana State. Right now, SDSU and Montana State have the best odds to win the FCS title at +200, slightly above NDSU’s +225. But the Jacks first have to go through NDSU in the semifinals, assuming both handle business in the second round and quarterfinals. Teams can’t look ahead, but we can. SDSU should beat Montana and UIW/Nova. The Fargodome gives NDSU an advantage over SDSU, although the Jacks led for most of the game earlier this year in Fargo. SDSU has quietly looked like arguably the best team in the FCS over the last few weeks. The Jacks are playing much better offensively than when it played NDSU. Plus, on an already elite defense, having All-American safety Tucker Large back with his coverage abilities could have been a difference-maker in NDSU’s game-winning drive. We’ll keep NDSU slightly ahead of SDSU in this ranking due to the home-field advantage.
2. #2 seed NDSU
If NDSU makes it to Frisco, the Bison may be a slight betting favorite over the team below, Montana State. Although right now, SDSU and Montana State have the best odds to win the FCS title at +200, slightly above NDSU’s +225. But the Bison will first have to go through SDSU in the semifinals, assuming both handle business in the second round and quarterfinals. Teams can’t look ahead, but we can. NDSU should beat ACU and Mercer/Rhody. The Fargodome gives NDSU an advantage over SDSU, although the Jacks led for most of the game earlier this year in Fargo. NDSU’s senior class sticking together last offseason makes them seem destined to reclaim the FCS throne, but the USD loss to end the regular season potentially revealed some flaws. We’ll keep NDSU slightly ahead of SDSU in this ranking due to the home-field advantage.
1. #1 seed Montana State
Montana State has the easier path to Frisco, as it should be for the No. 1 seed. Potential games vs. Idaho and USD will present challenges, though. NDSU and SDSU have to go through each other for one to get to Texas, which is partially the reason why MSU tops this list of ranking the best chances to win the natty. But MSU’s play also makes the Bobcats deserving of No. 1. Their defense continues to show it is legit, and MSU’s offense looks like the best in the FCS. This season was pointed at as “the year” for Montana State, even going back to the 2021 and 2022 deep playoff runs when MSU was playing a lot of freshmen and sophomores. We’ll see if this experienced and talented senior class can deliver that elusive national title. If they do, they’ll likely have to beat either NDSU or SDSU in Frisco, teams that have ended MSU’s season every year since 2018.
