No. 13 Northern Arizona hosts No. 5 Montana State this weekend in a ranked FCS matchup.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
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Northern Arizona vs. Montana State On TV
The matchup between Northern Arizona and Montana State will air on ESPN+ and The Spot-MTN across Montana.
Kickoff is at 4 p.m. CT on Saturday, Oct. 4. It is taking place at the Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, Arizona.
Northern Arizona vs. Montana State Preview
After a sleepy second half in Week 4 vs. Mercyhurst, leaving a lot of meat on the bone in a 17-0 win, the Bobcats returned to their usual dominant selves against an inferior opponent. MSU ripped Eastern Washington to shreds last week, winning 57-3 to improve to 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS.
The best resume-boosting result for MSU is still its double-overtime loss to No. 2 South Dakota State. That can change this weekend, though. A road victory at NAU would put a ranked win on the resume. While quality losses are a factor for the playoff committee, you’d rather hang your hat on quality wins.
NAU won’t be an easy out, however.
The Lumberjacks are 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. The last time they lost a home game was Oct. 14, 2023. Two weeks ago, NAU defeated then-No. 19 UIW 31-23 at home. UIW then beat No. 12 Abilene Christian 38-7 this last Saturday, making NAU’s win look even more impressive.
Ty Pennington has delivered on his preseason honors. He has passed for 1,347 yards, nine TDs, and just one interception. Kolbe Katsis has been Pennington’s top target, catching 24 passes for 444 yards and four touchdowns. There is a drop-off in production after Katsis. Isaiah Eastman and Jeter Purdy are both tied for No. 2 on the team with 181 receiving yards.
They’ll go up against an elite defense.
MSU has allowed 7, 0, and 3 points in its last few games. The defense allowed just 17 points vs. SDSU in regulation before the two overtimes. Sophomore linebacker Cole Taylor has emerged as a standout, totaling 32 tackles and 4.5 TFLs. The stout d-line has allowed Taylor and other defenders to make plays without offensive linemen reaching the second level.
Offensively, the Cats may have had their breakout performance last week as they work through some kinks of a new scheme. Justin Lamson has already thrown for 1,005 yards, six TDs, and two interceptions on 72.95% passing. For comparison, Tommy Mellott threw for 1,064 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions in the 2023 season.
MSU will need to keep tabs on linebacker Travis Arena, who already has 39 tackles, five TFLs, and four quarterback hurries.
This is a great gauge for the Cats. If they don’t execute and play with a lack of urgency, like against Mercyhurst, this has upset written all over it. NAU has good experience back from last year’s playoff team, and weird things can happen in its dome. But this MSU defense looks different and might be the most complete unit under Brent Vigen. And when you look at NAU’s defense, it hasn’t provided much resistance to its better competition, allowing 31.6 points per game. That’s not ideal against a balanced MSU attack.
Montana State pulls away in the second half. The Cats have been good at limiting explosive plays, and that’s where NAU would have to hit to pull off this upset.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
