New Mexico State had started the season out exactly how it wanted to.
After winning three games all of last year in Tony Sanchez’s first season as head coach, the Aggies began this year 2-0. They defeated FCS Bryant then beat Tulsa, which went on to win at Oklahoma State.
However, now NMSU is on a two-game losing skid. The Aggies dropped their Conference USA opener at Louisiana Tech and then lost to in-state rival New Mexico.
This week would be a good time for NMSU to get back on track, especially with it being against another CUSA opponent.
The Aggies are hosting Sam Houston. After the Bearkats turned things around and were highly competitive in CUSA in 2024, they’re 0-4 in Phil Longo’s first campaign as head coach including a 0-1 mark in CUSA play.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Betting Odds
New Mexico State is a +2.5 college football betting odds underdog against Sam Houston, with the Over/Under being 53.5 as of this writing.
The moneyline for Sam Houston is -125, while it’s +105 for New Mexico State.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State On TV
The matchup between Sam Houston and New Mexico State will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
The game will kick off at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 2. The contest is taking place at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction
I predict New Mexico State will and therefore cover the 2.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 53.5 total points.
I expect NMSU will have just enough offensive firepower to get the job done here. Logan Fife has been inconsistent for the Aggies, as he’s thrown for 1,017 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 54% completion rate. But I think he’s capable of stepping up in this matchup.
The Aggies also have some playmakers. Wide receiver Donovan Faupel leads the team with 19 catches and 274 yards through the air while scoring one touchdown. Tight end Gavin Harris has added 227 yards and a score on 15 receptions. PJ Johnson III, another wideout, has tallied 211 yards and 13 catches while leading the team with two receiving touchdowns.
But I really expect NMSU’s defense to play well at home after being on the road in its last two contests. I don’t think those losses against Louisiana Tech and New Mexico tell us what kind of team NMSU is because LA Tech looks like a frontrunner to win CUSA and New Mexico has been playing at a high level, even beating UCLA earlier this year. Led by defensive back Naeten Mitchell, defensive end Jamall Thompson Jr., and linebacker Tyler Martinez, I like the Aggies to play stout defense today.
NMSU gave up a combined 17 points in its first two games, and I think the Aggies play like that again on the defensive side of the ball.
