"In my opinion, three Big 12 teams are true conference title contenders: Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas," I wrote on July 25. Two months later, that list needs an update to include Baylor (and maybe eliminate the Cyclones?).
Two years ago, Baylor opened the season, Matt Rhule's first as head coach, with a home loss to Liberty and followed it with six more losses before winning their first and only game. Two years later, the Bears are 4-0 for the first time since 2015 and in the thick of the Big 12 title race. Baylor won the Big 12 in 2013 and shared the title with TCU in 2014, but they've never played in the Big 12 Championship. And while every team is only one game into their conference schedule, we can plot paths for the Bears' title hopes.
Baylor doesn't need to win out. The key: Splitting the back-to-back Texas and Oklahoma games in Weeks 12 and 13. If they split, they could have a one-game margin for error (e.g. loss at Kansas State in Week 6 or at Oklahoma State in Week 8).
Example scenario in which Baylor wins the Big 12 with one loss:
Baylor finishes 11-1 in the regular season, 8-1 in the Big 12 with a loss to Oklahoma.
Baylor owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over another one-loss team (or wins the tiebreaker if a three-way tie for second place).
Big 12 Championship: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Example scenario in which Baylor wins the Big 12 with two losses:
Baylor finishes 10-2 in the regular season, 7-2 in the Big 12 with losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State.
Oklahoma wins out.
Kansas State loses to Oklahoma and Texas and loses a TBD tiebreaker to Baylor.
Iowa State loses at least one more game (and every other Big 12 teams loses two conference games) and loses the tiebreaker to Baylor.
Big 12 Championship: Baylor vs. Oklahoma.
Are we getting ahead of ourselves before the calendar flips to October? Of course, but it's warranted after the remarkable turnaround Matt Rhule has led over the last three seasons.
