Welcome to the HERO Sports FCS Mailbag. FCS writers Brian McLaughlin and Sam Herder will take questions each week on Twitter and give in-depth answers. Tweet them both at @BrianMacWriter and @TheHerd215 to get your questions answered!
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What happens if the "Valley" keeps happening to the Valley. Can they really get 6 teams in this thing? Or do they beat themselves too much?
— Jonathan Lee (@lee_jon14) October 15, 2017
Brian: First of all, yes I think they could have six teams in the FCS playoffs — especially this year where some of the other conferences are a bit down. So absolutely that could happen. I mean, let's take a look at it right now — if the season ends today, NDSU, USD, Youngstown State, Western Illinois and SDSU are locks in my mind. From here until the end of the season, if those five keep their noses clean and say maybe a UNI, SIU or Illinois State catches a bit of fire and win at least 3 of their remaining games? I think there will be arguments to be made there too.
But to answer the second part of your question — yep, they do sort of 'eat their own' if you know what I mean. I think if you put all of the schools just typed above into any other conference? They'd be playoff bound.
Sam: While we all realize the FCS bracket will be the most competitive if the Valley had six teams in it and the CAA had 5-6 teams in there as well, I don't see six teams making it. The powers that be inside that playoff selection room won't let it happen. A couple weeks ago it seemed plausible to get six in. But like you said Jonny Radio, the "Valley" keeps happening to the Valley.
NDSU, USD and WIU appear to be locks for the playoffs barring a meltdown. But then SDSU and YSU aren't even guaranteed to make the field yet. UNI is still alive as well. Then you have Illinois State start 4-0 before two head-scratching losses. These ranked teams can't afford losses to unranked opponents. And we're starting to see that happen. I predict five teams make it in. [divider]
since Mike Houston got robbed of national coach of the year last year (completely ridiculous), any chance he gets it this year?
— Jason Smith (@HumanPerson1) October 15, 2017
Brian: I think Houston's obviously going to be one of the big contenders for it. Those awards are given at the end of the regular season and don't take into account the FCS Playoffs, so that's what happened last year. There are several good candidates as of Week Seven, and Mike is certainly one of them. If you go with the 'surprise' candidates as of Week 7, my contenders would be South Dakota's Bob Nielson, Elon's Curt Cignetti, Columbia's Al Bagnoli, Western Carolina's Mark Speir and Austin Peay's Will Healy.
Sam: To be honest, I think USD's Bob Nielson is the frontrunner right now. And that doesn't mean coach Houston doesn't deserve it. Heck, I agree with you that he got robbed last season. That was the finest coaching job if there ever was one. But what Nielson has done this season is absolutely incredible. If he or Houston receive the award this year, you won't hear any arguments from me. [divider]
Do you think the top tier FCS teams should aspire to make the jump to FBS or continue to stay within the FCS?
— Chris Ward (@Top_BeanCounter) October 15, 2017
Brian: No. I think they should stay put. As Rece Davis, host of ESPN "College GameDay" told us Friday in an interview session, why not be excellent where you can be excellent? I thought he summed it up well. The elite FCS teams might … and I repeat, might … crack the Top 25 occasionally in the FBS, but would be hard pressed to ever compete with the Alabamas and Ohio States year in and year out.
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I could see current FCS teams getting into bowl games, but do you want to play in the MicronPC.com bowl on Dec. 23 or in Frisco for an NCAA national championship? I know what I'd pick.
Sam: The FCS fan in me says no. But it's a case-by-case situation. It all comes down to region, in my opinion. Georgia Southern is in a good location to be FBS. JMU has the location, stadium and budget to do it if it wants to. But if you look at teams in the Dakotas or Montanas, where are they going to go? You can't (or you shouldn't, I guess) move up to the FBS without a conference invite. And which athletic directors in which conferences are going to agree to travel to the Dakotas and extend an invite?
Most teams move up for more money and exposure. But do you really think "College GameDay" would have gone to JMU or NDSU if they were an undefeated team in the Sun Belt? No. [divider]
@TheHerd215 @BrianMacWriter The way #Easton Stick is playing now and if he continues this play is he a Walter Payton award finalist ?
— Jeff Workin (@jtworkin) October 15, 2017
Brian: Absolutely, but I think he'd have some tough competition — from his own backfield. Lance Dunn has been outstanding thus far and that may impact that situation. Easton would also find tough competition from his own conference in South Dakota's Chris Streveler. But a W.P. finalist? Absolutely I could see that if this kind of play continues.
Sam: Yes, I do think Stick will be a finalist. His numbers will probably drop. I mean he'll throw an interception eventually and his completion percentage will probably drop into the 60s, right? But I still think he'll show he's a top quarterback in the FCS if he keeps winning.
Will he actually win the award? No, probably not. If you're a national voter who has only seen NDSU and EWU a total of 10 quarters and you put Stick's and Gage Gubrud's numbers side by side, who would you vote for? Stick is a great player. But he doesn't have player of the year numbers. And honestly, I don't think he cares. [divider]
Brian – JMU, best and most fun program you've ever visited? How did we stack up vs. your expectations? jQuery172012348702805983991_1508209313809?? pic.twitter.com/gucRSjTxaG
— Michael Evangelista (@Michael_2Clutch) October 15, 2017
Brian: As I wrote in a column after the game this weekend, it was the perfect blend of an SEC– type of rabid fan atmosphere with a dose of cozy small college campus. I absolutely loved the experience and it was fun to soak it in for a few days while also having ESPN GameDay there, to see the fan reaction. It was incredible.
Sam: Harrisonburg looks fun. [divider]
How concerned should JMU fans be about the offense's difficulty getting a push at the line of scrimmage in the CAA schedule?
— W, Curly (@DaveButz) October 15, 2017
Brian: I'm guessing this is a reaction after the Villanova game. I think you definitely want to take into account how good the defenses at Villanova and Delaware are. Both are top 10 FCS defenses nationally. Of course, JMU is ahead of them. It's just a very physical league and the Dukes are going to be challenged at times.
Now, is JMU beatable? Yes, they are. Just like North Dakota State was last year. If they run into a team with Villanova or Delaware's defense and South Dakota or Eastern Washington's high octane offense all wrapped into one roster? Anybody see a team out there like that? Hmmmm.
Sam: For a physical team that wants to establish the run, yes there should be a bit of a concern with the struggles. Yet I realize when a team is the defending champs, it sets some unrealistic expectations. JMU isn't dominating its opponents. And that's OK. The Dukes have still won every CAA contest by two scores. And the CAA is pretty dang good. The Dukes will roll teams in the playoffs that play in the Big Sky, Southland or Ohio Valley conferences. It's whenever they match up with a team from the MVFC where that push at the line of scrimmage will be key. [divider]
Does a 7-4 South Dakota State team make playoffs? If they lose to NDSU & USD, no signature win. @BrianMacWriter @TheHerd215 @joejoekerlin
— Joshua A. Swanson (@Swany8) October 15, 2017
Brian: I think a 7-win SDSU team is a no-brainer for the FCS playoffs. That means of course that they win 3 of their next 5 and that ain't going to be easy. One would think this week's game at Missouri State is winnable, but then the four games afterward look like they're either 50/50 games or worse.
I think the real question is this — would a 6-5 SDSU team get in the playoffs? I think even that would at least be considered, especially if the Jackrabbits lay out one of the Valley monsters in the next few weeks — either at WIU or USD, or home against NDSU. Win even one of those three and go 6-5? I think SDSU is in.
Sam: I do think SDSU would make it at 7-4 just out of name recognition and respect for the Valley. But the question is, and I can't believe I'm asking this, are the Jacks good enough to go 3-2 the rest of the way against Mo State, WIU, NDSU, Illinois State and USD? Right now, I don't think their run defense is good enough to beat NDSU and USD. The Bears are a beatable team and it appears the Redbirds are too. So it may come down to if SDSU can go to WIU and win.
The Jackrabbits make it at 7-4. At 6-5 I don't think they do.
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NEXT: FCS Fantasy Football: Week 7 Perfect Lineup Includes Troy Pelletier, Chris Streveler
