In the NFL Draft, the No. 2 overall pick is more valuable than the No. 3 pick — doesn't take a GM to tell you that — but exactly how much more valuable is it? Is the difference between No. 2 and No. 3 the same as the difference between No. 102 and No. 103? No, that doesn't seem right. Instinct would tell you that the better the pick, the bigger the value gap between the pick in question and those above and below. The biggest gap of all is between the No. 1 and No. 2 picks, while the smallest gap is between second-to-last and last selections.
In the early 1990s, Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson created a chart to put a number to this concept. The Jimmy Johnson Chart was based on feel more than actual statistics, and it has been altered, adjusted, and improved upon by everyone from Football Perspective to the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective.
Andrew Doughty gave the Johnson chart values for each 2017 NFL Draft pick in an article last week. Now we're here to break it down by team. How much value does each team have in the 2017 NFL Draft? There are two schools of thought:
| Team | Johnson | # of Picks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 5608.4 | 11 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 3614.6 | 10 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 3162 | 7 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 2954.8 | 8 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2725.4 | 8 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 2631.6 | 7 |
| 7 | New York Jets | 2477.2 | 7 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | 2387.4 | 8 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | 2369.8 | 7 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2233.9 | 11 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 2039.2 | 6 |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 1944 | 7 |
| 13 | Arizona Cardinals | 1921.8 | 8 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 1830.3 | 7 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1811.4 | 8 |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | 1711.4 | 10 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 1595 | 10 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 1528.6 | 7 |
| 19 | Detroit Lions | 1420 | 8 |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks | 1342 | 7 |
| 21 | New York Giants | 1333.9 | 7 |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 1324.4 | 8 |
| 23 | Oakland Raiders | 1306.6 | 8 |
| 24 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1301.4 | 10 |
| 25 | Houston Texans | 1295.9 | 7 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1174.6 | 8 |
| 27 | Green Bay Packers | 1146.1 | 8 |
| 28 | Dallas Cowboys | 1139.6 | 7 |
| 29 | Atlanta Falcons | 1055.9 | 6 |
| 30 | Los Angeles Rams | 927.8 | 7 |
| 31 | Minnesota Vikings | 912.4 | 8 |
| 32 | New England Patriots | 442.6 | 7 |
The biggest thing that pops out here is that the value the Johnson chart puts on the No. 1 overall pick INSANE. At 3,000 points alone, the Johnson chart says the No. 1 pick is more valuable than the entire draft haul of 28 different teams. That seems a little inflated. Especially since the original purpose of this chart was to figure out if a pick for pick trade made sense.
RELATED: Worst Trades in NFL History Involving a 1st Round Pick
Consider this: according to the Johnson value chart, a No. 1 pick is worth 22 years' worth of fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh round picks (assuming one pick per round per year). So if every team followed this chart religiously, they could conceivably trade every one of their late round picks from here to forever and land the No. 1 pick.
This underscores the biggest issue with the Johnson system — namely, the overvaluation of the top picks and undervaluation of the lowest picks. The Johnson chart works well for the relative value of first round picks, but kind of breaks down after that.
The Harvard scale distributes value a bit more evenly, so teams with more picks generally have a higher total value than they would in the Johnson system. Take a look:
| Team | Harvard | # of Picks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 1574.0 | 11 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 1130.3 | 10 |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | 1010.3 | 8 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 986.8 | 11 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 964.9 | 7 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 931.8 | 7 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 930.3 | 8 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | 926.1 | 8 |
| 9 | Washington Redskins | 878.0 | 10 |
| 10 | New York Jets | 858.4 | 7 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Chargers |
