CUSA has been one of the more unpredictable mid-major conferences this season. You never knew which team was going to show up on any given night, and at the start of league play, UTEP, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana Tech were the second, third,d and fourth favorites to win the regular-season title. Fast forward three months and those squads are the sixth, seventh, and eighth seeds in the Conference USA basketball tournament.
Liberty captured the regular-season crown and remained the steady favorite nearly all season long. Jacksonville State (+5000) and Kennesaw State (+10000) were not expected to do much damage in the league and had two of the longest odds to win the regular-season title entering the season. Jax State nearly pulled it off, finishing second and securing the No. 2 seed in the conference tourney while KSU is the fourth seed.
This has the feel of a tournament that’s worth taking a chance on a longshot, but playing it conservatively with Liberty still offers a decent price with the college basketball odds.
Either way, I think there should be some crazy outcomes in Huntsville this week.
Conference USA Basketball Tournament Odds
| Team | BetMGM Odds |
| Liberty | +115 |
| New Mexico State | +500 |
| MTSU | +600 |
| Jacksonville State | +800 |
| Louisiana Tech | +1200 |
| Kennesaw State | +1400 |
| Western Kentucky | +2200 |
| UTEP | +2500 |
| Sam Houston | +6000 |
| FIU | +25000 |
Odds via BetMGM as of March 10
Conference USA Basketball Tournament Prediction
I predict Jacksonville State will beat Kennesaw State in the championship game.
There isn’t an easy path for any of the top seeds in this bracket. While the first-round matchups should both be competitive, the four quarterfinal games could easily all come down to the wire.
I expect Liberty to win its quarterfinal matchup over a Sam Houston squad that won its final two games of the regular season over UTEP and New Mexico State. I had a lot of faith in UTEP earlier in the year, but the Miners have crumbled in the second half of conference play and have lost seven straight.
Seventh-seeded WKU should knock off No. 10 FIU in the first round to earn a date with Jax State. The Gamecocks won the first two meetings by a combined eight points and I like them to get another win here and meet MTSU in the semis. Even though MTSU dropped both of its games to LA Tech this season, the Blue Raiders are playing well right now and I expect them to handle business against the Bulldogs.
The quarterfinal matchup between No. 4 KSU and No. 5 NMSU could be the best game of the entire tournament. The Owls lead the league in scoring with 76.4 points per game while NMSU’s defense has been the best in CUSA play and has a defensive adjusted efficiency of 95.8, according to KenPom. It’s tough to bet against this defense but the Aggies have been inconsistent and really struggle to score at times. Cold stretches are absolutely killer in March.
If KSU beats NMSU, then it’ll likely meet a really good, well-rounded Liberty team that can light it up from beyond the arc. If the Flames get hot, it’ll be tough for the Owls to keep pace. However, I think the Owls’ duo of Adrian Wooley and Simeon Cottle will carry KSU to the title game. These are two of the top scorers in the league and pose matchup problems for all teams. Whenever KSU needs a bucket, one of these guys will get it.
A Conference USA basketball tournament championship game between JSU and KSU will provide elite guard play from both sides, which is one of the reasons I have faith in Jax State to go the distance. Gamecocks guard Jaron Pierre Jr. is one of the best players in the country that nobody talks about and ranks fifth in the country in scoring (21.8 PPG). He takes over games and I think he can lead the Gamecocks to their first CUSA tournament title.
Getting JSU at 8/1 odds and KSU at 14/1 both offer plenty of value and I believe both are worth taking a flyer on.
