Sitting tied for first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake heads south for a road trip to visit Southern Illinois in this Saturday afternoon tip.
After starting conference play 2-2, the Bulldogs have won seven games in a row and are 19-2 overall. Those two losses came at UIC and at home against Murray State. Drake has an average margin of victory of 11.8 points during conference play.
The Salukis (10-12, 5-6) have won their last two, both four-point road wins over UIC and Valparaiso. SIU started conference play 0-5 but is 5-1 since.
Both Scott Nagy (SIU) and Ben McCollum (Drake) are in their first seasons with their respective programs, and both are proven winners.
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Drake at Southern Illinois Odds
Drake is a six-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Southern Illinois while the Over/Under is at 128.
The Moneyline for Drake is at -250 and at +220 for Southern Illinois.
Drake at Southern Illinois On TV
The matchup between Drake and Southern Illinois will be televised on ESPNU.
Today’s game tips off at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Drake at Southern Illinois Prediction
I predict Drake covers the six-point spread as a road favorite. I also predict for this game to go under 128 points.
Even though SIU has two of the top five scorers in the MVC, I think the Bulldogs’ defense will pose problems for the Salukis.
Drake typically does a great job of taking away its opponents’ best-scoring threats and forcing the rest of the team to make shots. Sometimes those other players step up when they’re needed to, sometimes they don’t.
For the Salukis, there’s a big drop-off in scoring production outside of their top three scorers. Ali Dibba leads the team and is second in the conference with 16.4 points per game, and Kennard Davis Jr. is fourth in the MVC with 15.2 PPG. Jarrett Hensley averages 11.6, but then there aren’t any players who average more than five points.
We can expect Dibba and Davis to knock down some shots, but I don’t anticipate them finding as much success as they typically do against the Bulldogs’ pressure defense.
Drake allows 57.7 PPG, which trails only Houston for the best scoring defense in the country. In conference games, the Bulldogs force a turnover on 22.7% of opponents’ possessions and have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.2, per KenPom. Those rank first and second in the MVC.
But even if this game were to get into a scoring frenzy, the Bulldogs can compete. They have the second most efficient offense in the league (113.7) and have the top scorer in the conference in junior Bennett Stirtz. The D-II transfer’s 17.8 points, 6.2 assists, and 2.6 steals per game all lead the conference. Mitch Mascari and Daniel Abreu both add 11 PPG.
The Bulldogs have the potential to score more than they do, but they nearly drain the shot clock on every possession in order to run through their offense and find quality looks. They average 71.7 PPG.
SIU is averaging 73.5 PPG and is surrendering 74.2 PPG. The Salukis have struggled with turnovers their past few games, and are averaging 13 per contest. They’ll especially need to take care of the ball against the Bulldogs as they likely won’t have as many possessions as they usually do.
The Salukis also aren’t the most physical team but will need to disrupt Drake’s five-out offense that features a lot of cuts.
If SIU plays a complete game, it’ll have a chance, but I think the Bulldogs will be too much on both sides of the ball and could even win by double-digits.
Drake is 5-3 against the spread on the road and SIU is 3-7 ATS at home. The over is 4-10 when Drake is a favorite.
