Yale will look for a repeat of last season when it meets Texas A&M in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Last March, the Bulldogs (22-7) overcame a 10-point halftime deficit to upset fourth-seeded Auburn 78-76 in the first round behind John Poulakidas’ 28 points. I think this Yale team is better than last year’s.
It wasn’t an easy path through the Ivy League Tournament for the Bulldogs. They barely held on to win by two against Princeton in the semifinals and outlasted Cornell, 90-84, in the title game to earn their fifth trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2015-16.
Texas A&M (22-10) suffered a second-round loss to Texas in double-overtime in the SEC Tournament. The Aggies have lost five of their last seven games.
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Yale vs. Texas A&M Odds
Texas A&M is a 7.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Yale while the Over/Under is at 139.5 points.
The Moneyline for Yale is at +260 and -325 for Texas A&M.
Yale vs. Texas A&M Channel
The NCAA Tournament matchup between Yale and Texas A&M will be televised on TBS.
This South Regional contest tips off at 7:25 p.m. ET on Thursday in Denver.
Yale vs. Texas A&M Prediction
I predict Yale covers the 7.5-point spread, but Texas A&M wins. I also predict the total to go under 139.5 points.
When you step back and look at this game, you may think that there’s no way Yale has a chance to be competitive. The Aggies are one of the big, bad SEC teams and play with a different tenacity than most. They just beat the No. 1 overall seed, Auburn, two weeks ago.
However, Yale is no pushover and is a physical team itself. Power forward Nick Townsend is a brute inside and I believe he’ll have no issues battling with A&M’s big men. Per KenPom, the Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country, securing an o-board on 42% of opportunities. It’s where a lot of the Aggies’ production comes from because they aren’t the greatest shooting team. Their effective field-goal percentage of 31.1% ranks 317th in the nation and they only shoot 31% from the outside (also 317th).
Yale allows offensive boards at only a 25.8% rate, which ranks 22nd in the country. It’ll be paramount for Yale to keep Texas A&M off the offensive glass and off the free-throw line — 23.4% of their points come via the charity stripe, which is 13th most in D-I.
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If the Bulldogs aren’t knocking down their 3-pointers, it’ll likely be a long day. They’re hitting 3s at a 38.5% clip, which is ninth-best in the country. This is an area where they can potentially expose the Aggies, who are average at defending the arc (33.4%).
First-team All-SEC guard Wade Taylor IV will be a handful for the Bulldogs. However, Yale point guard Bez Mbeng is an excellent perimeter defender and was named the Ivy League Player and Defensive Player of the Year. He’s lengthy, physical, and could stymie the much smaller Taylor. We’ll see how he steps up to what’s likely his biggest defensive challenge of the season.
The 6-foot-4 Mbeng averages 13.4 points, 5.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game while Poulakidas leads the team with 19.2 PPG. Townsend averages 15.4 points and 7.2 RPG.
Taylor leads the Aggies with 15.4 PPG and 4.3 APG, and Zhuric Phelps chips in with 14.1 PPG.
Yale has the potential for an upset here, but I think Texas A&M’s physicality wears Yale down and they get one-too-many offensive rebounds down the stretch to survive the upset bid.
The Bulldogs are 2-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and the Aggies are 11-9-1 as a favorite.
