First place in the Mountain West is on the line Saturday when New Mexico heads north to take on Utah State at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan, Utah.
Utah State (19-2, 9-1 MWC) and New Mexico (17-4, 9-1 MWC) have a commanding lead in the race for the Mountain West regular-season championship. The winner of Saturday’s game will be in the driver’s seat for the title and the top seed in the Mountain West Tournament.
Both teams head into the game on three-game winning streaks after suffering surprising losses. The Aggies went to Las Vegas and got upset by UNLV on Jan. 15, but they’ve averaged 84.3 points a night in three games since then, including a 76-71 win in their rematch against the Rebels.
New Mexico came up short, 71-70, at San Jose State on Jan. 14. The Lobos have averaged 84.6 points a night in their past three games, including an 84-65 home win over Boise State.
The Lobos lead the Mountain West with 83.4 points a game, and they top the conference with 40.4 rebounds a night, which ranks No. 19 in the country. New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent leads the conference with 19.6 points a game, and he’s No. 2 in the league with 139 assists.
Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 82.4 points a game, and the Aggies lead the conference with a .498 team shooting percentage and a .375 3-point percentage. They’re led by veteran guards Ian Martinez, who is averaging 16.7 points a game, and Mason Falslev, who is adding 15.2 points and 6.2 rebounds a game and leads the team with 80 assists.
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New Mexico at Utah State Odds
Utah State is a 4.5-point college basketball betting favorite on BetMGM, and the Over/Under is 158.5 points. The Moneyline is at -190 for Utah State and at +155 for New Mexico.
Utah State is 11-9 against the spread in its past 20 regular-season games as the favorite at home. New Mexico is 11-8-1 ATS in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road.
New Mexico at Utah State on TV
The Mountain West game featuring New Mexico and Utah State will be televised on FS1.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.
New Mexico at Utah State Prediction
I predict New Mexico wins, 76-70.
Dent is almost impossible to guard when he’s at his best. He’s the fastest player in the Mountain West, and when he decides to drive to the basket, he puts points on the board.
Dent racked up 34 points against UNLV last weekend. He put up a season-high 40 against VCU on Dec. 18, 2024, and scored 30 points against Arizona State on Nov. 28, 2024. He’s shooting 50 percent from the floor this season, and he’s a 78% free-throw shooter.
Dent also gets plenty of second-chance buckets thanks to a pair of talented rebounders. Nelly Junior Joseph is putting up 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds a game. Mustapha Amzil is adding 12.7 points and 5.7 rebounds a night.
Utah State’s whole lineup can shoot, and the Aggies are holding teams to 67.6 points a game. They’ll keep the game close and could even have a chance to win it if New Mexico makes enough mistakes, but it’s hard to imagine them having an answer for Dent and the Lobos’ frontcourt.
