The last five weeks of the season have not been kind to South Florida. The Bulls were sitting at 11-10 overall and 4-4 in conference play entering February but have since gone 2-7. South Florida now looks to pull off an upset and end the season on a more positive note when it visits Memphis tonight.
It’s been quite the opposite for the Tigers, who have gone 9-1 since the start of February and just clinched the regular-season AAC title after beating UTSA on Tuesday. It is Memphis’ first-ever AAC regular-season crown and its first regular-season title since 2012-13, which was the Tigers’ final season in Conference USA.
At 25-5 and 15-2, the Tigers have won 20+ games in each of the seven seasons under Penny Hardaway but have been left out of the past two NCAA tournaments.
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South Florida at Memphis Odds
Memphis is a 13.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against South Florida while the Over/Under is at 150.5 points.
The Moneyline for South Florida is at +675 and at -1100 for Memphis.
South Florida at Memphis On TV
The matchup between South Florida and Memphis will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
South Florida at Memphis Prediction
I predict Memphis covers the 13.5-point spread. I also predict this game to go over 150.5 points.
I thought the Tigers would have a slight letdown spot against UTSA after Sunday’s big win over UAB. They did, but they still took care of business against a solid Roadrunners squad. I think earlier in the season, Memphis may have lost that game.
Memphis keeps inferior teams in the game way too often, which makes me a little weary of thinking they’ll cover this spread. However, with the conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament approaching, I don’t think they’ll let up against the Bulls, especially because it’ll greatly impact their NCAA tourney resume. Even though Memphis locked up the No. 1 seed in the AAC tournament and is the regular-season champs, there’s still plenty to play for. Because of that, I think Memphis will try to go out and dominate this game.
Behind Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse, the Tigers have one of the best interior defenses in the league. They average nearly 4.5 blocks per game and their defensive adjusted efficiency of 99.0 is the best in the league, per KenPom.
Memphis has really flipped the switch defensively since AAC play started. In conference games, their defensive effective field-goal percentage of 47.2% and 3-point defense (29.9%) both rank second in the conference. This isn’t great news for a South Florida team that ranks in the bottom three in both of those categories offensively.
The Tigers’ offense can also erupt at any point and is led by the top scorer in the league in PJ Haggerty. The sophomore is averaging 21.3 points per game and is shooting 49% from the field and 40% from the outside. Tyrese Hunter averages 14 PPG and Dainja averages 13.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.
Six-foot-11 senior Jamille Reynolds paces the Bulls with 12.9 PPG and 7.7 RPG, and Jayden Reid scores 12.2 per game. Kobe Knox chips in with 10.7 PPG.
South Florida’s defense isn’t bad and ranks third in the league in defensive effective FG percentage (48.5%) and turnover rate (19.3%), but I think Memphis is clicking right now and will have too much firepower on Senior Night.
Memphis is 8-14 against the spread as a favorite and USF is 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
