VCU has been in the past three Atlantic 10 tournament championship games and four of the last five. Will the Rams return to this year’s title game?
They were dominant in the second half of conference play, but it was Saint Louis that was the talk of the league for nearly the entire season. The No. 25-ranked Billikens were 24-1 overall and 12-0 in A-10 play before going 3-3 to close out this season, including a 29-point loss to George Mason in the regular-season finale.
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That loss probably made the gap in the odds to win the tournament title relatively shorter between VCU and SLU, especially with the Rams defeating Dayton on the road.
As for the rest of the teams and their respective odds, I think there lies plenty of value when trying to decide on an A-10 tournament champ.
A-10 Basketball Tournament Odds
| Team | BetMGM Odds |
| Saint Louis | +125 |
| VCU | +175 |
| Dayton | +750 |
| Saint Joseph’s | +1200 |
| George Washington | +1600 |
| Davidson | +2500 |
| George Mason | +3500 |
| Duquesne | +6600 |
| Rhode Island | +8000 |
| Fordham | +20000 |
| Richmond | +20000 |
| St. Bonaventure | +25000 |
| La Salle | +50000 |
| Loyola Chicago | +50000 |
| Odds as of March 9 |
A-10 Basketball Tournament Predictions
I don’t think SLU’s late regular-season hiccups should be concerning.
They did lose to good teams in Rhode Island, Dayton, and GMU, and all three losses did come on the road. The Billikens are still the best and most balanced team in the conference with a ton of depth and great coaching. Per KenPom, they have the best offensive (118.7) and defensive efficiency (101.5) in the league and also have the best offensive and defensive effective field-goal percentage.
I don’t think I need to go into a ton of detail about how great 6-foot-10 big man Robbie Avila is or how great the Billikens’ chemistry is, especially offensively. If you’ve watched them, then you’ve seen it for yourself. If you haven’t, I recommend you tune in this week.
Even if SLU doesn’t receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the A-10, it’ll still receive an at-large bid, meaning there’s much more at stake this week for the rest of the league.
VCU still has at-large hopes, and I think it should receive an at-large bid even if it loses in the tournament title game. The Rams are 13-1 since Jan. 14, with the only loss during that span coming against SLU, who swept the Rams this year.
The Rams can win in different ways, outscoring opponents in a track meet or winning in a defensive slugfest. Led by Terrence Hill Jr. and Lazar Djokovic, they have depth with seven guys playing 21+ minutes per game and are in what I believe is the easier half of the bracket. They’ve beaten every team in the league except for SLU, so I expect them to put it all on the line to get another potential shot at the Billikens in the title game.
Dayton has only lost two games since the start of February, and both came against VCU. The fourth-seeded Flyers have really found their footing defensively since then and thrive on creating turnovers and being disruptive.
Five-foot-10 senior guard Javon Bennett is a stud, and he and ninth-year UD coach Anthony Grant should have the Flyers in position to get back to the NCAA tourney for the second time in four years.
Third-seeded Saint Joseph’s is another squad that really turned it on down the stretch, especially defensively. The Hawks are only allowing 69.2 points per game in conference play and have won six in a row. They only played SLU, VCU, and Dayton once, going 1-2 in those games, but their defense should give them a shot in any contest.
George Washington and GMU are both programs I was high on all season, but both had struggles throughout the year. GWU lost its best player, Rafael Castro, for most of February and lost four of the six games he missed. Despite having a tough path to an A-10 title game, I still think GWU has the potential to make a run, especially with Castro’s ability to protect the rim, score, and rebound, and the Revolutionaries’ guard play.
GMU has its own backcourt that is tough to guard and could springboard them to a tournament run. Senior wing Fatt Hill has been dealing with an injury, though, so that’s something worth monitoring. The Patriots also have one of the top defenses in the league and defeated VCU, Saint Joseph’s, a healthy GWU team, and, of course, SLU in the regular-season finale. They started league play 6-0, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished the season the same way.
But I think VCU finds its way to another A-10 tournament title game and defeats whoever is on the other side. However, I think Dayton, GWU, and GMU offer great value and are worth a look in what should be a tournament with a few upsets.
