ETSU and Furman both needed to rally in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament to advance to the championship game.
The No. 1-seeded Buccaneers trailed by 17 early in the second half but got enough stops while Blake Barkley scored 10 points in the final 2 minutes, 48 seconds to lift ETSU to a 69-67 victory over Western Carolina. The Bucs defeated The Citadel in the quarterfinals.
Sixth-seeded Furman trailed UNC Greensboro by double-digits early in the second half before it erupted for 54 second-half points, advancing to the SoCon tournament title game for the fourth time in five years. They have only won one during that stretch. ETSU’s most recent tournament crown came in 2020.
The Bucs defeated Furman in both regular-season meetings, but I think those results don’t hold too much weight as everything changes once the postseason rolls around.
Furman vs. ETSU Odds
As of this writing, ETSU is a 1.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Furman while the Over/Under is at 139.5 points.
The Moneyline for ETSU is -130 and +110 for Furman.
Furman vs. ETSU on TV
The matchup between Furman and ETSU will be televised on ESPN.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Furman vs. ETSU Prediction
I predict Furman wins. I also predict this game goes under 139.5 points.
These are two of the best defenses in the conference. ETSU allows a league-best 69.1 points per game and, per KenPom, has a defensive adjusted efficiency of 104.3, which also ranks first. The Bucs are anchored by the two-time SoCon Defensive Player of the Year in 6-foot-8 senior Cam Morris III.
However, Furman will have a significant size advantage in the post with a pair of 6-foot-11 big men in Cooper Bowser and Charles Johnston. Both of ETSU’s starters in the frontcourt stand 6-foot-8. ETSU will still be able to hold its own, but I think the Paladins’ height advantage will cause enough problems to take away from the emphasis put on containing Alex Wilkins.
The 6-foot-5 freshman netted 34 points in Furman’s win over UNCG and had 19 in the quarterfinal win over Samford. He’s averaging 17.8 PPG. Wilkins is elite around the rim, can score from anywhere on the court, and is also a great passer, with his 4.8 assists per game the third-most in the SoCon.
ETSU has an all-conference defensive guard in Allen Strothers, but his minutes have taken a hit recently. We’ll see if he’s on the court more and if he can stymie Wilkins, who averaged 20 PPG in the last two meetings. Bowser also had good showings against ETSU and averages 13.7 PPG for the ‘Dins.
The Paladins’ defense ranks second in the league, allowing 70.8 PPG, while its defensive effective field-goal percentage of 48.2 is the best. They have a ton of length, which allows them to get in passing lanes and contest shots.
Regardless of being a bit undersized, I still expect the Bucs to play through the post and try to get to the free-throw line. Most of ETSU’s production comes from in the paint and from the charity stripe, but Furman protects the hoop as well as any team in the conference.
I think ETSU will need to knock down more 3s than usual to try to open up the paint. The Bucs are only shooting 35.7% from outside, but Barkley and Morris are capable of stretching the floor if they need to.
Barkley and Brian Taylor II both score 14.6 PPG for the Bucs, while Morris adds 13.3 PPG. ETSU is averaging 78.1 PPG.
The Bucs have been the better team for much of the season and could easily come out on top, but I think Furman’s size will be a factor on both ends of the court, and Wilkins’ playmaking abilities will lift the Paladins to a win here.
