The good news for the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference is that Tucker DeVries and Bennett Stirtz are now in the Big Ten. Those two led Drake to the last three MVC tournament championships, with DeVries leading the Bulldogs and earning the tournament MVP in 2023 and 2024 before Stirtz did so last season. Entering this year’s tournament, Drake has the second-longest odds to win at +20000.
The two years before Drake’s three-year run, Loyola Chicago went back-to-back, but the Ramblers have since moved on to the Atlantic 10. That means there’s a strong chance the winner of this year’s tourney will either be a first-time winner or a team that hasn’t won it in a long time.
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Of the top three favorites, Northern Iowa has the most recent MVC tourney title, which came in 2016. The favorite, Belmont, has yet to capture one, but is only in its fourth season in the league.
With five teams having odds of 8/1 or shorter, though, Arch Madness is truly wide open this year.
MVC Basketball Tournament Odds
| Team | BetMGM Odds |
| Belmont | +160 |
| Northern Iowa | +450 |
| Illinois State | +500 |
| Bradley | +650 |
| Illinois Chicago | +800 |
| Murray State | +1100 |
| Southern Illinois | +1600 |
| Valparaiso | +3500 |
| Indiana State | +12500 |
| Drake | +20000 |
| Evansville | +35000 |
| Odds as of March 3 |
MVC Basketball Tournament Predictions
Because of how dominant it has been this season, it’s hard not to pick Belmont to capture its first MVC tournament title.
The Bruins have one of the best offenses in the country and the best offense in the MVC, even after losing one of their top playmakers in Nic McClain earlier in the year. Per KenPom, their adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.5 ranks 36th in the country, and their effective field-goal percentage of 61.4% ranks first. Belmont is also solid defensively and has the best defensive field-goal percentage in the league.
The Bruins will benefit from playing on what I believe is the easier half of the bracket.
It’s not often you see the sixth-seed with second-shortest odds, but that’s the case for Northern Iowa. The Panthers’ midseason struggles and injuries put them behind the 8-ball, but they have since started to piece things together with the return of Tristan Smith. Not to mention their defense will always give them a chance.
That sixth-seed also means they have to play a first-round game while the top five seeds don’t play until the second round.
Third-seeded Illinois State was the favorite to win the conference entering the season and has one of the best duos in the league in Chase Walker and Johnny Kinziger. Walker missed some time with a hamstring injury but returned for the final two games, where ISU defeated UNI and Belmont.
Those were the first back-to-back victories for the Redbirds in over a month, as they have struggled to string together wins. However, if they’re clicking this week, they will be dangerous even with a tough path to the championship.
I’m a big believer in backcourts carrying teams in March, and No. 2 Bradley has a pair of guards in Jaquan Johnson and Alex Huibregtse to put the Braves on their shoulders. The 5-foot-11 Johnson is a bully on both ends of the court, can get to his spots as well as anyone, and can create problems as a defender. Huibregtse is one of the best shooters in the nation and is knocking down 3-pointers at a 42.8% clip.
I think Bradley will have to play a dangerous Valparaiso team in the second round, though, and wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an upset there. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Valpo wins three games.
UIC is another group that leans on its defense, but did the fifth-seeded Flames peak too early after winning eight games in a row in January? They dropped two of their last three to Valpo and Indiana State, but did defeat Bradley. Their ability to defend and control the glass will certainly give them a chance.
Murray State also has an offense that can roll through anybody if it gets hot, but it has had a lot of struggles defensively lately.
I think each of these teams has a legit chance to win the tournament. However, I like what Illinois State has to offer defensively, and that the Redbirds have guys that can go get a bucket when they need it. There is also some decent value on ISU, making it an intriguing pick to win the title.
