Liberty’s seven-game win streak and unbeaten conference record will be on the line when it hosts New Mexico State on Thursday night.
The Flames (13-3 overall, 5-0 Conference USA) are coming off a two-game road trip where they defeated Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston.
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The start of conference play has been a lot less welcoming for the Aggies, who have dropped three of their last four, including a 59-55 loss to Middle Tennessee in their last outing. New Mexico State led by as many as 16 in the first half before MTSU rallied.
NMSU (9-6, 2-3) does have a pair of quality conference wins over SHSU and Western Kentucky. We’ll see if it can pick up another against the Flames.
New Mexico State at Liberty Odds
As of this writing, Liberty is a 9.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against New Mexico State. The Over/Under is 142.5 points.
The Moneyline for Liberty is -455 and +350 for New Mexico State.
New Mexico State at Liberty on TV
The matchup between New Mexico State and Liberty will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 6 p.m. ET.
New Mexico State at Liberty Prediction
I predict New Mexico State covers the spread. I also predict this game goes over 142.5 points.
Liberty owns the most efficient and effective offense in the league. Per KenPom, the Flames’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.5 and effective field-goal percentage of 58% are both the best in CUSA. They finish around the hoop, can knock down 3s, and don’t turn the ball over.
The offense rolls through 6-foot-7 senior forward Zach Cleveland, who is probably the league’s MVP to this point. Cleveland is averaging 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
However, it’s his ability to draw defenders and find open teammates that makes him the most dangerous. His 7.6 assists per game are the third-most in the country. Only Big Ten all-conference point guards Braden Smith and Jeremy Fears Jr. are averaging more.
It helps that LU has sharpshooters for Cleveland to kick to, including Kaden Metheny and Brett Decker Jr., who are both shooting over 40% from the outside in league games. Decker is shooting 50% from 3 on the season and averaging 17.7 PPG.
Making things difficult on Cleveland will be key for the Aggies, and they might have the front-court duo to accomplish this with Julius Mims and Cyr Malonga. I imagine both guys take stabs at guarding Cleveland, with Mims being able to match his athleticism, while Malonga’s length can perhaps alter him around the rim.
NMSU also prefers to play fast and has the second-fastest tempo (69.5 possessions per 40 minutes) in the league. If the Aggies are able to speed the game up, it might make Liberty and its methodical offense out of sorts. The Flames want to play at a slow pace where they can work through their offense and find clean shots. Nearly 60% of their makes come off an assist.
I think the Aggies’ scrappy and physical defense can also be disruptive and make Liberty uncomfortable at times.
Another area NMSU can likely find success is on the offensive glass. LU surrenders an offensive board a league-worst 39.6% of the time and gave up 14 o-boards to SHSU. The Aggies should be able to get a few extra possessions on the offensive glass, but they’ll need to capitalize on them.
While New Mexico State’s defense and rebounding can keep it in this game, it’ll need its offense to be a little more consistent and not complacent. The Aggies occasionally settle for shots but will need to make every possession count against this Liberty squad.
Senior guard and Cal State Bakersfield transfer Jemel Jones leads the Aggies with 15.9 PPG. They are averaging 76.3 PPG.
Behind its energy and effort, I think NMSU can keep this game within reach. Only one of LU’s league wins has come by double figures.
The one thing I’m wary of is LU knocking down free throws late to cover this number.
