The top two teams in the Horizon League square off for the second time this season when Wright State travels north to face Oakland on The Blacktop.
Wright State won that Dec. 29 meeting, 88-73, after shooting 56% from the field and 56% from the outside. The Raiders (10-7 overall, 5-1 HL) have won five in a row, and their only conference loss came by one to Youngstown State.
Since that loss to WSU, the Golden Grizzlies (9-8, 5-1) are on a three-game win streak. They played one of the toughest non-conference schedules among mid-majors, which included losses to Michigan, Purdue, Houston, and Michigan State.
Wright State at Oakland Odds
As of this writing, Oakland is a 4.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Wright State while the Over/Under is 159.5 points.
The Moneyline for Oakland is at -192 and +160 for Wright State.
Wright State at Oakland On TV
The matchup between Wright State and Oakland will be televised on ESPN2.
Today’s game tips off at 3 p.m. ET.
Wright State at Oakland Prediction
I predict Wright State covers the 4.5-point spread, but Oakland wins. I also predict this game goes over 159.5 points.
In the last meeting, the Raiders had no issues slicing up Oakland’s 1-3-1 zone defense. They found the holes in the zone and worked the ball around to find open shots. They had 16 assists on 31 made field goals.
I don’t think they’ll have as much success this time around, as I’m sure the Grizzlies and head coach Greg Kampe will make some adjustments to fill gaps and create more difficult shots. If Oakland isn’t buttoned up defensively, however, then we might see a repeat of the first matchup.
Per KenPom, the Raiders have an effective field goal percentage of 54.1% and shoot 54% from inside the arc. They find quality looks and finish at the rim, which is why they were able to carve up Oakland’s zone once already this year. Wright State also shoots a league-best 36.2% from 3.
The Raiders might be without standout freshman guard Michael Cooper, who was injured against Oakland and missed the last three games. It is unclear if he’ll be suiting up. He leads the Raiders with 15.4 points per game.
The Grizzlies struggled offensively in the first matchup, but in conference play, they own an adjusted offensive efficiency of 124.5, which is the top mark in the league. WSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 104.6 is also the best in the Horizon.
WSU’s defense is good, but I think behind junior forward Isaac Garrett and senior guard Brody Robinson, Oakland won’t have any problems scoring. Robinson is averaging 15.7 PPG while Garrett is averaging 15.5 PPG.
In the previous meeting, Robinson knocked down five triples, so expect the Raiders and TJ Burch to try and run him off the 3-point line. Burch’s on-ball defense and ball pressure have created a ton of problems for opposing guards this year. He leads the league with 2.9 steals per game.
Oakland likes to get out and run the floor when possible, and doing so could keep Burch from being too disruptive and impede the Grizzlies from getting into their offensive sets.
The Grizzlies will also have a size advantage, and I think they will get some production from the offensive glass and second-chance points. In conference play, they’re grabbing an o-board on nearly 38% of their misses.
Wright State is on a roll right now, but had to scrap for its last two wins and will now be playing in its third consecutive league game on the road. I think the travels and the last two games might catch up to WSU, especially late in this game.
I don’t see the Raiders sweeping this season series from the Grizzlies, and I think they grind out a win here.
