March Madness Predictions: Picks For NCAA Tournament Games With Mid-Major Teams

March Madness is one of the most unpredictable sporting events, and that’s in large part because of mid-majors.

Smaller college basketball programs develop loaded rosters and make things difficult for some of the highest-ranked teams in the country every year. And I don’t expect that to be any different in 2026.

Here’s a look at some of my March Madness picks involving mid-major teams:

Tennessee vs. Miami (Ohio) Prediction

I predict Miami (Ohio) will win and therefore cover the 11.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 149.5 total points.

Pulling off another upset like this won’t be easy. But the RedHawks have proven they can win plenty of games in a row.

Miami is second in the country with 90.7 points per game and is first with a 61.2% effective field goal percentage. MAC Player of the Year Peter Suder leads the RedHawks with 14.4 PPG and averages 4.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 54.5% from the field and 41% from 3-point range. 

Brant Byers has added 14.4 points and 4.1 rebounds per contest. Evan Ipsaro averages 13.9 PPG, and Eian Elmer leads the RedHawks with 5.9 rebounds per game while scoring 12.9 PPG.

Miami still has so much to prove. I think the RedHawks will play with an unparalleled amount of urgency and will advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Texas Tech vs. Akron Prediction

I predict Akron will win and therefore cover the 7.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 156.5 total points.

I expect the Zips will be capable of making plenty of shots in this matchup, just like they have all season. They’re seventh in the country in scoring with 88.4 points per game and are eighth with an effective field goal percentage of 58.8%. They also move the ball without giving it up too much, as they’re 17th in assist-to-turnover ratio at plus-1.69.

Tavari Johnson leads Akron with 20.1 points and five assists per game while shooting 51.2% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point range. Amani Lyles, who makes 55.7% of his shots and 37.5% of his 3s, has a team-high eight rebounds per game and scores 14.6 PPG. 

Also for Akron, Shammah Scott is scoring 12.7 points per game while shooting 42.2% from beyond the 3-point arc. Evan Mahaffey averages 10.2 points while leading Akron in steals (1.7 per game) and blocks (0.8 per contest).

Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 139th in the nation in scoring defense with 72.6 points per game allowed. I don’t think this is a good matchup for the Red Raiders.

Will Akron make a Sweet 16 run? I’m not sure. But I do believe the Zips can earn the upset here.

Virginia vs. Wright State Prediction

I predict Virginia will win but Wright State will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 145.5 total points.

With Ryan Odom as their head coach, the Cavaliers have been pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor this year. I expect that will help them stave off an upset here.

Virginia ranks 13th in the country in defensive field goal percentage at 39.5% and is also 16th in rebounding margin (plus-seven) and 42nd in scoring defense (68.4 points per game allowed). Wright State is outside of the top 50 in all of those categories. 

Led by Michael Cooper (13.4 PPG), TJ Burch (12.3 PPG and 3.5 assists per game), and Michael Imariagbe (11.8 PPG and seven rebounds per game), I think Wright State has enough talent to make this game somewhat competitive. But I ultimately believe Virginia will be too strong on defense and on the boards.

Purdue vs. Queens Prediction

I predict Purdue will win and cover the 25.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 163.5 total points.

Queens is a fun team. The Royals are 12th in the nation in scoring at 84.9 points per game. But I don’t think they’re as good as Purdue.

The Boilermakers are not just skilled, they’re efficient. They’re first in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio at plus-2.25 while ranking 12th in effective field goal percentage at 57.6%. They also rebound well, as they’re 21st with a plus-seven rebounding margin.

Led by Braden Smith, who is first on the team with 14 points, 9.1 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, Purdue should be capable of taking care of business in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State vs. Tennessee State Prediction

I predict Iowa State will win but Tennessee State will cover the 24.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 149.5 total points.

Tennessee State has some great players. That includes Aaron Nkrumah, who leads the Tigers with 17.6 points and 2.8 steals per game. Travis Harper II is averaging 17.3 PPG while shooting 47.6% from the field and 40.1% from 3-point range.

But the Cyclones, even though they haven’t been at their best, have still been solid on the defensive end lately. They’ve allowed an average of 60.5 points in their last four outings.

Milan Momcilovic paces Iowa State with 17.1 points per game while making 51.2% of his shots and 49.6% of his 3-pointers. Joshua Jefferson averages 16.9 PPG and a team-best 7.6 rebounds per contest. Tamin Lipsey leads the Cyclones with five assists and 2.2 steals per game while averaging 13.3 PPG.

I think Iowa State will win convincingly, but I think Tennessee State can keep it to within 24 points.

Arizona vs. LIU Prediction

I predict Arizona will win but LIU will cover the 30.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 150.5 total points.

I think LIU can make this interesting early on. 

Jamal Fuller leads the Sharks with 16.4 points per game while shooting 52.5% from the field and 43.8% from 3-point range. Malachi Davis is averaging 14.4 points and a team-high 3.4 assists per contest. Greg Gordon leads LIU with 5.5 rebounds per game and 1.8 steals per game while scoring 14.1 PPG.

But Arizona is excellent in myriad ways. 

The Wildcats are 14th in the country in scoring (86.1 PPG), sixth in rebounding margin (plus-10), and 37th in assist-to-turnover ratio (plus-1.57). They also are eighth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage, as their opponents have made 39.17% of their shots.

I don’t see a clear weakness of Arizona’s that LIU is capable of exploiting. So I expect the Wildcats will manage to win by about 20 points.