Will Boise State Get Back To The College Football Playoff In 2026?

Under head coach Spencer Danielson, Boise State has done nothing but win conference championships.

But now the Broncos are in a new league. They’re leaving the Mountain West for the Pac-12, which will feature four other former MW teams but will include some others Boise State isn’t as familiar with.

College football betting odds have the Broncos as the favorites to win the Pac-12 at +130. They’re win total Over/Under is 7.5, with the Under at +125 and the Over at -160.

If the Broncos do win the new-look Pac-12, they could very well be in a good position to return to the College Football Playoff after making it to the CFP and appearing in the Fiesta Bowl in 2024.

Here are my game-by-game predictions for Boise State:

Sept. 5 at Oregon

Prediction: Loss

Boise State was competitive with Oregon when these two teams faced off back in 2024. Then again, Ashton Jeanty was still playing for the Broncos. I do expect Boise State will give Oregon some issues, but I don’t know if the Broncos have enough firepower to keep up with Dante Moore and the Ducks on the road. 

Sept. 12 vs. Memphis

Prediction: Win

There’s a few games that I might’ve picked differently if Boise State had to go on the road. This is one of them. Memphis did go through an offseason coaching change, but the Tigers should remain as one of the top teams in the American with Charles Huff as their head coach. Still, after the loss to Oregon, I fully expect Boise State to bounce back at home.

Sept. 19 vs. South Dakota

Prediction: Win

South Dakota is expected to be one of the top 15 teams in the FCS. The Coyotes have made it to the national quarterfinals each of the past three years, but they are going to be dealing with a great amount of turnover. I expect Boise State’s rushing attack to lead the Broncos to a blowout win.

Sept. 26 at Western Michigan

Prediction: Win

While I do think Boise State has a more talented roster and will win, I could absolutely see Western Michigan making things difficult, especially in Kalamazoo. WMU is going to be tough up front on both sides of the ball, and its run game could lead to long possessions. But I predict Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen will really shine in this game and will make critical throws en route to a double-digit victory.

Oct. 3 vs. Utah State

Prediction: Win

Utah State proved its heading in the right direction under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The Aggies nearly beat Boise State last season, as the Broncos won 25-24. But I don’t see this one being that close, especially in Boise.

Oct. 10 at Fresno State

Prediction: Loss

This begins the toughest two-game stretch on Boise State’s schedule. And I don’t expect the Broncos to get through it unscathed. They would still be in a good position if they go 1-1 here, and I think Fresno State is the more likely of these two games for Boise State to lose. The Bulldogs did win at Boise State last year. And while that was mostly without Madsen, the Bulldogs stifled Boise State’s rushing attack as well.

I don’t think Boise State will go undefeated in Pac-12 play, and this just seems to me like the most likely spot for the Broncos to drop a game.

Oct. 24 at Washington State

Prediction: Win

I nearly predicted Washington State to win this game. But if Boise State does lose to Fresno State going into a bye week, I don’t foresee the Broncos losing back-to-back like that.

The Cougars are going to be a formidable team with Kirby Moore going into his first season as their head coach. But I think Boise State will put together a complete win here.

Oct. 31 vs. Texas State

Prediction: Win

Texas State’s offense is going to be a problem for the Pac-12 in 2026. With Brad Jackson back at quarterback and Beau Sparks at wide receiver, the Bobcats will be capable of putting up plenty of points. 

But I foresee Boise State’s defense stepping up to the occasion and leading the Broncos to a triumph at home.

Nov. 7 at Colorado State

Prediction: Win

Colorado State is the toughest team for me to predict wins and losses for in the Pac-12. Will new head coach Jim Mora help the Rams rebound as a program immediately? I could see it. But I don’t think this will be a favorable matchup for CSU.

Nov. 14 vs. Oregon State

Prediction: Loss

Oregon State was just 2-10 last year. While I do think JaMarcus Shephard is capable of getting the Beavers back on track as a program, I don’t think OSU will be contending for a conference title in 2026. 

Nov. 21 vs. San Diego State

Prediction: Win

This is another one of those games that, if the Broncos had to go on the road, I might’ve made a different pick. San Diego State is going to be extremely difficult to beat with running back Lucky Sutton and quarterback Jayden Denegal returning. But I believe Boise State’s strong rushing game, led by running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, will help the Broncos earn a victory at home.

Nov. 28 Pac-12 Flex Game

Prediction: Win

We obviously don’t yet know who Boise State will play for its final matchup of the regular season. It all depends on how the rest of the regular season shakes out. But we do know Boise State will be on the road because it has already played four conference games at home. Still, if a conference championship berth is at stake, give me Boise State.

Boise State Football Season Prediction

I predict Boise State will go 10-2 during the 2026 regular season and therefore will go Over 7.5 wins. And as of right now, I also project the Broncos will win the Pac-12 and will return to the College Football Playoff.

The question is: Is 10 wins during the regular season enough to make it back to the CFP? It could be, but that’s far from a certainty.

If the Broncos do go undefeated in conference play and their only loss is to Oregon, then I would say there’s a great chance of that. But if it’s two losses, then that opens the door for some of the other conference champs.

Whoever wins the American is going to be in the discussion, even if that team drops two league games. If UNLV – which has a winnable Power Four matchup with Cal at home – wins the Mountain West, the Rebels will be considered. Or if James Madison keeps winning following its coaching change, the Dukes could very well make it back as well.

But right now, I think Boise State has the best chance among any of those teams.