San Diego State opens play in its fifth-straight NCAA Tournament tonight against a college basketball blue blood, North Carolina, that has fallen on hard times.
The Aztecs take on UNC tonight at 9:10 p.m. ET on TruTV as part of the NCAA’s First Four in Dayton, Ohio. The winner will enter the field as a No. 11 seed in the South Region and face No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round on Friday.
San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 MWC) has been to the NCAA Tournament in six of head coach Brian Dutcher’s eight seasons at the helm. The Aztecs probably would have seven appearances after going 30-2 in 2019-20, but the tournament was canceled that year because of COVID-19.
The Aztecs won two games in the Big Dance last season before losing in the Sweet 16. They made it all the way to the national championship game in 2022-23, but lost to UConn.
North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 ACC) is making its third NCAA Tournament appearance in the four seasons since Hubert Davis replaced legendary coach Roy Williams. Williams led the Tar Heels to 16 NCAA Tournament bids and three national championships between 2003 and 2021.
North Carolina is 133-50 all-time in the Big Dance, including 21 Final Four appearances and six national championships. San Diego State is 13-16 all-time in the tournament.
The Tar Heels’ status as a blue blood doesn’t make them immune to struggles. They finished the regular season in fifth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and they lost to in-state rival Duke in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament.
North Carolina boasts the ACC’s second-best offense, averaging 80.8 points a game, but the Tar Heels are giving up 75 points a game, which ranks No. 14 in the 18-team league. They rank No. 11 in the conference from the free throw line (73.7%) and No. 6 from 3-point range (35.3%). They rank No. 7 in the league with 36.7 rebounds a game.
San Diego State, which finished in fifth place in the Mountain West, has struggled on the offensive end this year. The Aztecs rank No. 7 in the 11-team league with 70.9 points a game, but they’re giving up just 63.6 points a game, which leads the conference and ranks No. 14 in the country.
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San Diego State vs. North Carolina Odds
North Carolina is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite against San Diego State on BetMGM, and the Over/Under is at 142.5 points.
The Moneyline is at -210 for North Carolina and +170 for San Diego State.
San Diego State vs. North Carolina Channel
The NCAA Tournament First Four game between San Diego State and North Carolina will be televised on TruTV.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET.
San Diego State vs. North Carolina Prediction
I predict North Carolina wins, 78-65.
The stage won’t be too big for either of these regulars in the NCAA Tournament, but San Diego State simply doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Tar Heels.
The Tar Heels are led by fifth-year senior guard RJ Davis, who averages 17.3 points a game this season, ranks No. 2 all-time at North Carolina with 2,744 career points, and was a consensus All-American last season. He’s joined by 6-foot-4 freshman Ian Jackson, who is averaging 12.4 points a game, and Seth Trimble, who is putting up 11.6 points and 5.1 rebounds a night.
San Diego State is led by a pair of talented guards: Nick Boyd, who leads the team with 13.4 points a game, and Miles Byrd, who is putting up 12.6. Six-foot-10 senior Jared Coleman-Jones is averaging 5.1 rebounds a night.
The good news for the Aztecs is they should have the services of 7-foot freshman Magoon Gwath, who missed the Mountain West Tournament with a knee injury, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein. Gwath was named Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year after averaging 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds a game and leading the conference with 2.64 blocked shots a game.
