Being The AAC Preseason Favorite Doesn’t Usually Lead To Championship Success

Tulane is the favorite in the American Athletic Conference preseason football poll, and the Green Wave are certainly a solid choice after winning the title last year, going 12-2 and ending the season with a 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl. 

With quarterback Michael Pratt leading an experienced group that includes 14 returning starters, the Green Wave should field another formidable team.

Yet, based on past tradition, Tulane fans shouldn’t be too comfortable with the bullseye clearly on the Green Wave.

The AAC has been picking a preseason favorite since forming in 2013, but for this exercise, we will only look at the preseason favorites since it began hosting a conference championship in 2015.

Here is how the preseason favorites have fared:

Year, Favorite, Conference Finish, Championship Result

2015, Cincinnati, T-3rd East, Houston 24, Temple 13

2016, Houston, T-3rd West, Temple 34, Navy 10

2017, South Florida, T-2nd East, UCF 62, Memphis 55 (2 OT)

2018, UCF, 1st East, UCF 56, Memphis 41

2019, UCF, 2nd East, Memphis 29, Cincinnati 24

2020, UCF, T-3rd, Cincinnati 27, Tulsa 24

2021, Cincinnati, T-1st, Cincinnati 35, Houston 20

2022, Houston, T-4th, Tulane 45, UCF 28

There have been eight championship games, and the preseason favorite has only won the title two times. UCF won in 2018 after being the favorite and Cincinnati won in 2021, the same year the Bearcats became the first Group of Five school to earn a berth in the four-team playoff. 

Not only did six favored teams not win the championship, but many of them didn’t even come close. 

Beginning in 2020, the AAC abandoned its divisions. Before that, the first-place team in the East met the first-place squad from the West in the title game.

Since 2020, it’s just the top two teams that qualify for the championship game. 

Of the four favorites that didn’t win the AAC title during division play, none of them even won their division. 

In addition, of the two favorites that didn’t win in the other format, neither finished higher than third place.

Last year’s preseason favorite Houston finished fourth, but even more surprising, Tulane was picked to finish seventh. Of course, nobody at the time raised an eyebrow at Tulane’s preseason ranking since the Green Wave were 2-12 the year before. By going 12-2, Tulane created the greatest single-season turnaround in college football history.

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In the 14-team AAC, teams will play eight conference games. So much about winning the league has to do with a team’s schedule.

For instance, the top three teams in this season’s preseason poll are 1. Tulane, 2. newcomer UTSA and 3. SMU.

Yet SMU bears watching, not only because the Mustangs return an experienced team with an impressive group of transfers and a quarterback ready for a breakout season in Preston Stone. The Mustangs also don’t have to play either Tulane or UTSA. 

That’s not to suggest the schedule will be easy, especially the last two games — at preseason No. 4 Memphis and then home against Navy, which was picked No. 9 but could be much tougher. 

Memphis received one first-place vote, and any of the top four teams could win the AAC. 

Tulane must play both UTSA and Memphis. UTSA, while meeting Tulane won’t face SMU or Memphis. 

Could there be another Tulane to oust the Green Wave?

This year’s No. 7 team in the preseason poll was newcomer North Texas, coming off a 7-7 season. 

Tulane showed last year how a longshot can win it. In six out of eight times since the championship game was played, being favored has appeared to be more of a hindrance than a plus. 

Now Tulane hopes to buck that trend.